Let's Talk About Ethereum
Updated
Here's a long-overdue update on the long term ETH/BTC chart. Many months ago, I speculated that we could be seeing a similar bottoming period play out to what happened in 2016 between Ethereum and Bitcoin. This would then ultimately lead to a new all-time-high for the ratio. Unfortunately, that idea failed to play out and ETH headed to some new yearly lows against Bitcoin. It's interesting to note where it ultimately found support, which was actually at a previous pivot area that hadn't been tested since 2016 (0.0162). Today's equivalent would be around 0.024. That's the horizontal area to break for bulls to regain control, as that is the current prior yearly support level.
I actually made an effort to call the bottom when it was at 0.018 this past summer. It headed briefly to those new lows, but since then it has bounced and continued to look fairly strong. Even after the recent drop, the ratio has recovered nicely back above 0.02 and is now testing the 0.021 area. Here's the link to that idea:
When attempting to use fractals, it's important to note the RSI as well. In my chart, you can see that the daily RSI looks very similar to December, 2016 (roughly 3 years ago). For this scenario to play out, we'd really want ETHBTC to break out from the 200d MA (around 0.02368 right now - light blue) and cause the 100d MA to cross above it. This is what happened in early 2017. I must also emphasize that this market cycle appears to be going at a much slower rate than the last. So, I've generally factored that into most of my speculative projections recently. I've talked about this in my recent videos, but I wanted to post a short written analysis and chart about it. Once the 200d MA clears, we also want to see Ethereum break the two year long logarithmic downtrend (pink), currently near 0.036-0.038. We actually broke the long term downtrend on the linear chart already in February (hence my charts from many months ago).
We also have a couple of more medium-term downtrends to contend with on the log chart (orange and light blue). The light blue resides somewhere near 0.025 and 0.026, while the orange is much closer to current prices.
On the bearish side, we don't want ETH/BTC to head below 0.0162, and particularly 0.013. Those are contentious areas from the earlier days. More short term, we want to continue to hold the 100d MA (green).
That's it! You can read and watch my other posts for more in-depth thoughts on the market.
This is not financial advice. This post is for speculation, entertainment, and education.
-Victor Cobra
I actually made an effort to call the bottom when it was at 0.018 this past summer. It headed briefly to those new lows, but since then it has bounced and continued to look fairly strong. Even after the recent drop, the ratio has recovered nicely back above 0.02 and is now testing the 0.021 area. Here's the link to that idea:
When attempting to use fractals, it's important to note the RSI as well. In my chart, you can see that the daily RSI looks very similar to December, 2016 (roughly 3 years ago). For this scenario to play out, we'd really want ETHBTC to break out from the 200d MA (around 0.02368 right now - light blue) and cause the 100d MA to cross above it. This is what happened in early 2017. I must also emphasize that this market cycle appears to be going at a much slower rate than the last. So, I've generally factored that into most of my speculative projections recently. I've talked about this in my recent videos, but I wanted to post a short written analysis and chart about it. Once the 200d MA clears, we also want to see Ethereum break the two year long logarithmic downtrend (pink), currently near 0.036-0.038. We actually broke the long term downtrend on the linear chart already in February (hence my charts from many months ago).
We also have a couple of more medium-term downtrends to contend with on the log chart (orange and light blue). The light blue resides somewhere near 0.025 and 0.026, while the orange is much closer to current prices.
On the bearish side, we don't want ETH/BTC to head below 0.0162, and particularly 0.013. Those are contentious areas from the earlier days. More short term, we want to continue to hold the 100d MA (green).
That's it! You can read and watch my other posts for more in-depth thoughts on the market.
This is not financial advice. This post is for speculation, entertainment, and education.
-Victor Cobra
Note
Trying to move up a bit on the ratio, but Bitcoin isn't looking particularly strong yet. It's encouraging that dominance is decreasing as Bitcoin drops. In some cases, alts are going up while Bitcoin goes down. That's something we haven't seen in a while. ETH/BTC is above the 100d MA and trying to hold above the 50d MA (red). I'd like to see an attempt at the 200d MA, if we manage to break the first downtrend (orange). Note
We want ETH/BTC to also invalidate what looks like a head and shoulders on the daily chart. The neckline would be around 0.019700. I don't particularly like yesterday's rejection, but it seems that people are actually still entering altcoin positions. Time will tell if these altcoin positions are long term or short term : ) My bias is that whales are diversifying a bit into alts for the risk/reward at this point in the market cycle.Note
There's another way to draw a major downtrend since the 2018 peak, where we're testing it RIGHT NOW. Note
This is the main first target if the downtrend and 200d MA are broken. The target is at the secondary downtrend (pink): 
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