ETHEREUM - END OF ANOTHER MARKET CYCLE? WHAT TO EXPECT NOW?
Updated
The market cycle which started in the late March- early April with accumulation, is now approaching it's end with the final markdown phase. Possible reversal may occur here. A new cycle can start here with a new accumulation phase with a plenty of upside potential.
On the downside, if it continues to fall then i see a support somewhere around 0.0498. If it pierces southward to this, the last zone of defense lies in the range 0.0436-0.400. Beyond that, it's a free fall territory.
For those who have no idea about market cycle, read on.
The Four Phases of a Market Cycle
1. Accumulation Phase
This phase occurs after the market has bottomed and the innovators (corporate insiders and a few value investors) and early adopters (smart money managers and experienced traders) begin to buy, figuring the worst is over. At this phase, valuations are very attractive, and general market sentiment is still bearish. In the accumulation phase, prices have flattened and for every seller throwing in the towel, someone is there to pick it up at a healthy discount.
2. Mark-Up Phase
At this stage, the market has been stable for a while and is beginning to move higher. The early majority are getting on the bandwagon. This group includes technicians who, seeing the market is putting in higher lows and higher highs, recognize market direction and sentiment have changed. Media stories begin to discuss the possibility that the worst is over, but unemployment continues to rise, as do reports of layoffs in many sectors. As this phase matures, more investors jump on the bandwagon as fear of being in the market is supplanted by greed and the fear of being left out.
As this phase begins to come to an end, the late majority jump in and market volumes begin to increase substantially. At this point, the greater fool theory prevails. Valuations climb well beyond historic norms, and logic and reason take a back seat to greed. While the late majority are getting in, the smart money and insiders are unloading. But as prices begin to level off, or as the rise slows down, those laggards who have been sitting on the sidelines see this as a buying opportunity and jump in en masse. Prices make one last parabolic move, known in technical analysis as a selling climax, when the largest gains in the shortest periods often occur.
3. Distribution Phase
In the third phase of the market cycle, sellers begin to dominate. This part of the cycle is identified by a period in which the bullish sentiment of the previous phase turns into a mixed sentiment. Prices can often stay locked in a trading range that can last a few weeks or even months. When this phase is over, the market reverses direction.
4. Mark-Down Phase
The fourth and final phase in the cycle is the most painful for those who still hold positions. Many hang on because their investment has fallen below what they paid for it, behaving like the pirate who falls overboard clutching a bar of gold, refusing to let go in the vain hope of being rescued. It is only when the market has plunged 50% or more that the laggards, many of whom bought during the distribution or early markdown phase, give up or capitulate. Unfortunately, this is a buy signal for early innovators and a sign that a bottom is imminent. But alas, it is new investors who will buy the depreciated investment during the next accumulation phase and enjoy the next mark-up.
Timing
A cycle can last anywhere from a few weeks to a number of years, depending on the market in question and the time horizon at which you are looking. A day trader using five-minute bars may see four or more complete cycles per day while, for a real estate investor, a cycle may last 18-20 years.
P.S: This is not an investment advice. This is my personal journal. Invest your capital at your own risk.
Keep an eye out. Trade safely. Always remember, money not lost is also a profit.
Good luck trading.!
Peace.
On the downside, if it continues to fall then i see a support somewhere around 0.0498. If it pierces southward to this, the last zone of defense lies in the range 0.0436-0.400. Beyond that, it's a free fall territory.
For those who have no idea about market cycle, read on.
The Four Phases of a Market Cycle
1. Accumulation Phase
This phase occurs after the market has bottomed and the innovators (corporate insiders and a few value investors) and early adopters (smart money managers and experienced traders) begin to buy, figuring the worst is over. At this phase, valuations are very attractive, and general market sentiment is still bearish. In the accumulation phase, prices have flattened and for every seller throwing in the towel, someone is there to pick it up at a healthy discount.
2. Mark-Up Phase
At this stage, the market has been stable for a while and is beginning to move higher. The early majority are getting on the bandwagon. This group includes technicians who, seeing the market is putting in higher lows and higher highs, recognize market direction and sentiment have changed. Media stories begin to discuss the possibility that the worst is over, but unemployment continues to rise, as do reports of layoffs in many sectors. As this phase matures, more investors jump on the bandwagon as fear of being in the market is supplanted by greed and the fear of being left out.
As this phase begins to come to an end, the late majority jump in and market volumes begin to increase substantially. At this point, the greater fool theory prevails. Valuations climb well beyond historic norms, and logic and reason take a back seat to greed. While the late majority are getting in, the smart money and insiders are unloading. But as prices begin to level off, or as the rise slows down, those laggards who have been sitting on the sidelines see this as a buying opportunity and jump in en masse. Prices make one last parabolic move, known in technical analysis as a selling climax, when the largest gains in the shortest periods often occur.
3. Distribution Phase
In the third phase of the market cycle, sellers begin to dominate. This part of the cycle is identified by a period in which the bullish sentiment of the previous phase turns into a mixed sentiment. Prices can often stay locked in a trading range that can last a few weeks or even months. When this phase is over, the market reverses direction.
4. Mark-Down Phase
The fourth and final phase in the cycle is the most painful for those who still hold positions. Many hang on because their investment has fallen below what they paid for it, behaving like the pirate who falls overboard clutching a bar of gold, refusing to let go in the vain hope of being rescued. It is only when the market has plunged 50% or more that the laggards, many of whom bought during the distribution or early markdown phase, give up or capitulate. Unfortunately, this is a buy signal for early innovators and a sign that a bottom is imminent. But alas, it is new investors who will buy the depreciated investment during the next accumulation phase and enjoy the next mark-up.
Timing
A cycle can last anywhere from a few weeks to a number of years, depending on the market in question and the time horizon at which you are looking. A day trader using five-minute bars may see four or more complete cycles per day while, for a real estate investor, a cycle may last 18-20 years.
P.S: This is not an investment advice. This is my personal journal. Invest your capital at your own risk.
Keep an eye out. Trade safely. Always remember, money not lost is also a profit.
Good luck trading.!
Peace.
Note
Approaching the Swing low of 8 January. This is a critical point.
Rajat Kumar Singh,
B.Tech (Delhi Technological University)
Global Community Manager, TradingView
✅ Telegram: t.me/johntradingwick
✅ Blog: tradingwick.in/
✅ Amorella: amorella.in/
B.Tech (Delhi Technological University)
Global Community Manager, TradingView
✅ Telegram: t.me/johntradingwick
✅ Blog: tradingwick.in/
✅ Amorella: amorella.in/
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.