ETH Triangle bBeak Out, Fake or Long Term
Updated
I started with the ETH' uptrend a few months ago and it first i was drawing an upwards channel from the Dec low and changed it to this triangle after we got rejection at the 160ish again in Feb. So after seeing it fail to reach the high of the channel a triangle was making more sense. Through out Feb and March we could see it was finding support around the 130. But when zooming in a bit more, at first sight it did not look that great. I talked about this in my last 2 ETH' analysis. That it looked weak and a bit bearish, but there were a few hidden bullish signs as well. These things are not easy to trade on but they are signs that never should be ignored. Actually the same thing was going on with my Bitcoin' analysis:
Now something else that keeps bugging me a bit. When looking back at previous drops, as we can see on the right and the chart here below. The other 2 similar moments, the whole world could see those up trend lines . But those times, it was almost impossible to short it, since those dumps happened in seconds/minutes. Now what makes me doubt is, how come this time everyone gets the perfect chance to short it here? Maybe a reason is because the OI is this high, because that also means a lot of people have positions running, so certain levels will be defended. Something we have seen a lot past weeks actually.
That channel was a good help in the previous analysis with that small triangle inside of it giving an entry that never was in danger since. You can call that a little bit of luck as well, because after it broke that triangle, it never looked back and simply kept on moving up.
Since Bitcoin' took the market by surprise with that big short squeeze, ETH' had a slow start but eventually it broke the triangle on the left as well, with great conviction and volume along with, as it should be. So at the moment, no reason to think that the bear trend will continue again. Past days it dropped quite a bit from the high, a little bit faster than a bull would want to see. As you might know, i mentioned it a few times before, corrections are usually violent and fast during a big uptrend. So nothing strange on that part as well. In theory this pull back of ETH' should stay above the 160ish, but i think it can even go towards the 155 and with a wick maybe even towards the 150. But really no more than that. I am giving it more room, because in crypto we tend to see shake pull back breaking supports but eventually still continuing the uptrend. As we can see in these examples, that also show, no need to catch any wick, usually enough time to get in without catching a falling knife.
Short term, as mentioned in my BTC' analysis, i think the market will go sideways this weekend, making an ABC correction. So maybe a bit lower, towards 161/162 and than up towards 169/173 and than one more drop in the 150/160 zone. Can't say i am very sure about this ABC, but it's my short term view for ETH now and don't have anything else that would make more sense. Maybe the wedge on the right is a plan B.
Previous analysis:
Now something else that keeps bugging me a bit. When looking back at previous drops, as we can see on the right and the chart here below. The other 2 similar moments, the whole world could see those up trend lines . But those times, it was almost impossible to short it, since those dumps happened in seconds/minutes. Now what makes me doubt is, how come this time everyone gets the perfect chance to short it here? Maybe a reason is because the OI is this high, because that also means a lot of people have positions running, so certain levels will be defended. Something we have seen a lot past weeks actually.
That channel was a good help in the previous analysis with that small triangle inside of it giving an entry that never was in danger since. You can call that a little bit of luck as well, because after it broke that triangle, it never looked back and simply kept on moving up.
Since Bitcoin' took the market by surprise with that big short squeeze, ETH' had a slow start but eventually it broke the triangle on the left as well, with great conviction and volume along with, as it should be. So at the moment, no reason to think that the bear trend will continue again. Past days it dropped quite a bit from the high, a little bit faster than a bull would want to see. As you might know, i mentioned it a few times before, corrections are usually violent and fast during a big uptrend. So nothing strange on that part as well. In theory this pull back of ETH' should stay above the 160ish, but i think it can even go towards the 155 and with a wick maybe even towards the 150. But really no more than that. I am giving it more room, because in crypto we tend to see shake pull back breaking supports but eventually still continuing the uptrend. As we can see in these examples, that also show, no need to catch any wick, usually enough time to get in without catching a falling knife.
Short term, as mentioned in my BTC' analysis, i think the market will go sideways this weekend, making an ABC correction. So maybe a bit lower, towards 161/162 and than up towards 169/173 and than one more drop in the 150/160 zone. Can't say i am very sure about this ABC, but it's my short term view for ETH now and don't have anything else that would make more sense. Maybe the wedge on the right is a plan B.
Previous analysis:
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New Alt market cap analysis:
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New Bitcoin analysis:
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