Let’s take a closer look at Ethereum (ETH) – not just following SPX, but showing some of its own behavior lately.
1. Structure & Indicators
- ETH is currently retesting the 200 EMA zone on the 1h chart, and candles are starting to flatten near resistance (around 1833–1835).
- RSI is at 56–57 and losing momentum, approaching overbought on low volume.
- Coinbase Premium is still negative (-36 earlier, now -21), meaning institutional buying pressure is not behind this move – it’s likely retail-driven.
- Bollinger Bands show price hugging the upper band, often a signal of a temporary stretch.
2. Volume Analysis
- Volume on the move up was decent but fading.
- No strong spikes that would suggest big buyers stepping in.
It looks more like shorts covering and FOMO buying.
3. Divergence Risk
- We’re seeing early signs of bearish divergence on RSI vs price – ETH pushing up while RSI is not following with strength.
- This usually signals weakness in continuation, especially near key resistance zones.
4. News & Macro Correlation
- ETH will likely react sharply to today’s NFP data and Powell’s speech, even if it’s crypto – macro still rules.
- If SPX dumps, ETH will follow, especially with its current weak spot structure.
My View:
ETH is not showing organic strength. This climb seems forced and light, with clear signs of hesitation.
Unless we get positive macro surprise, I expect ETH to either:
- stall at current levels and chop sideways
- or pull back fast toward 1795 / 1755 zone
So I’m not entering longs here. Watching for rejection confirmation and possibly a short setup if conditions align after the news.
1. Structure & Indicators
- ETH is currently retesting the 200 EMA zone on the 1h chart, and candles are starting to flatten near resistance (around 1833–1835).
- RSI is at 56–57 and losing momentum, approaching overbought on low volume.
- Coinbase Premium is still negative (-36 earlier, now -21), meaning institutional buying pressure is not behind this move – it’s likely retail-driven.
- Bollinger Bands show price hugging the upper band, often a signal of a temporary stretch.
2. Volume Analysis
- Volume on the move up was decent but fading.
- No strong spikes that would suggest big buyers stepping in.
It looks more like shorts covering and FOMO buying.
3. Divergence Risk
- We’re seeing early signs of bearish divergence on RSI vs price – ETH pushing up while RSI is not following with strength.
- This usually signals weakness in continuation, especially near key resistance zones.
4. News & Macro Correlation
- ETH will likely react sharply to today’s NFP data and Powell’s speech, even if it’s crypto – macro still rules.
- If SPX dumps, ETH will follow, especially with its current weak spot structure.
My View:
ETH is not showing organic strength. This climb seems forced and light, with clear signs of hesitation.
Unless we get positive macro surprise, I expect ETH to either:
- stall at current levels and chop sideways
- or pull back fast toward 1795 / 1755 zone
So I’m not entering longs here. Watching for rejection confirmation and possibly a short setup if conditions align after the news.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.