ETH PERSONAL ANALYSIS IN THE SHORT TERM (UPDATED)
Updated
The total evaluation for the ETH asset is bearish. Please be reminded that the chart displayed is very similar to the BTC chart posted on June 26, 2022 -- You may visit my profile to further confirm the move I took for shorting it.
Here are several analyses explanation that could help you maintain your short or reconsider your bullish bias in the short term and maybe in the long term as well.
-----------
Pattern Analysis
The price action/market structure on 1H-4H and 8H-1D timeframes actually confirm an initial inverse head-and-shoulders pattern which is a bullish structure, however it was proven in time that there is a very, very strong resistance in the 1300$ region which displays an immediate rejection on a minor short squeeze to 1280$. The projected pattern that is now created due to the invalidation of the previous one is a Standard Head and Shoulders pattern which is bearish and would target itself to near 1,000$ level where it could find temporary support.
The said price structure is also in a descending triangle pattern which is often seen as a continuation pattern to the downside or a bullish breakout at the latter of its tight consolidation, however since fundamentals strictly influence the price structure of bitcoin in a bearish sentiment, we will support the projection to further downside levels even in the case of a later breakout from the triangle.
-----------
Fundamental Analysis
-----------
Technical Analysis
On a macro-time frame (1D) chart, we can see an incredible amount of low volume in the price action of ETH from 880$ to 1,280$ which is not a very good sign and deliberately shows weakness in maintaining the movement. A low volume price action are also prone to manipulation wicks, which in the case of a bear market, is ever more than terrifying to hold both ways due to intense volatility. The Volume Profile (if you can pull it out yourself) shows a tremendous amount of volume traffic expected around the 300-500$ region with little to no volume from 600-750$ which means that these are unreliable demand levels if we fail to uphold the 17,000-18,000$ region (This could be the catalyst case if the CPI reports next month show an increased amount of inflation despite the recent increase in rate hike). The Relative Strength Index shows that we are still oversold but due to the fact that this is a lagging indicator as well as in the case for MACD, it is still recommended that we use decently smaller timeframes (1H-8H) to further confirm the strength of any trend or volume that can ripple its way to larger timeframes (1D,1W,1M,1Y).
You can almost draw four solid patterns in the current chart: A reverse HnS (failed), a HnS (still yet to be finished), a descending triangle (still yet to be finished) and a rising wedge from 17,800-21,800$ (confirmed due to breakdown).
In all summary, we are heading down in the short term until further bullish bias is entering the macro-markets.
If you liked the information above, don't forget to like and follow me for more future updates! You may also share this to your friends. Thank you for reading!
-Wamses
Here are several analyses explanation that could help you maintain your short or reconsider your bullish bias in the short term and maybe in the long term as well.
-----------
Pattern Analysis
The price action/market structure on 1H-4H and 8H-1D timeframes actually confirm an initial inverse head-and-shoulders pattern which is a bullish structure, however it was proven in time that there is a very, very strong resistance in the 1300$ region which displays an immediate rejection on a minor short squeeze to 1280$. The projected pattern that is now created due to the invalidation of the previous one is a Standard Head and Shoulders pattern which is bearish and would target itself to near 1,000$ level where it could find temporary support.
The said price structure is also in a descending triangle pattern which is often seen as a continuation pattern to the downside or a bullish breakout at the latter of its tight consolidation, however since fundamentals strictly influence the price structure of bitcoin in a bearish sentiment, we will support the projection to further downside levels even in the case of a later breakout from the triangle.
-----------
Fundamental Analysis
- The FED meeting later in Wednesday (June 29, 2022) will probably end up on discussions on further rate-hikes, other economic concerns and continuous neutral statements by Jack Powell to mitigate panic among investors and companies, however this meeting will be more than likely a catalyst that could bring assets to the downside (or consolidate) as we will have to wait for the Consumer Price Index Reports from the month of June to really confirm if the 75-point rate hike is really effective. If in any case that the inflation rate still increased despite the increased rate-hike, further rate hikes would warrant a definite move to the downside. Any statement by Jack Powell to mitigate panic is not to be taken as anything bullish as results matter more than words.
- The Housing Market Crisis is now at a very brink of a decline as overly inflated prices still linger and continuously rise at an unhealthy pace that could be worrisome. Latest data shows that the market growth of this sector is 15% above the fundamentals long term which is not, in any way, a good sign. However, this will not incur a 2008-Style Recession would happen as we now currently have tighter and safer standards to combat such event, but it does not mean that declines are impossible. This is a good buying opportunity for household investors, but they may have to wait for a greater price and time.
- The COVID-19 Pandemic is still yet to be converted to an Epidemic-Endemic Status as people globally still have to deal with periodical vaccines to keep up. It is hard to pinpoint when and how will these vaccines remain constant in any economy given the fact that new variants (and new improved vaccines) are still being made due to uncontrollable spread of exposure (the term "uncontrollable" is linked to how businesses and gatherings cannot be fully stopped and will often happen both publicly and privately despite restrictions). There is no such thing as completely eradicating these viruses in the first place as their mechanism of replication is through living cells, this means that as long as there are people and animals around, they will always be around but this does not mean that they cannot be controlled proven by the fact on how we dealt with the previous pandemics "Spanish Flu" and the "Polio Virus".
- The Ukrainian-Russian War is still active and would most likely not seek any end until Putin's goal is accomplished which is to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine. Other possible goals of Vladimir Putin is to potentially get Ukraine rendered as neutral status and a friendly country within the Russian sphere of influence (no NATO involvement), for it and other countries to recognize the jurisdiction of Russia over Crimea and to remove some of the international sanctions imposed on them. However, these will prove more than challenging to do as Ukraine fully intends to involve itself in NATO affairs.
- The Crypto Space has been incredibly bearish thanks to the most influential crash of 2022 regarding LUNA and its company Terra along with their CEO, Kwon Do-hyung (Do Kwon). This alone started a major catalyst of a complete breakdown of the multi-month support of BTC$ around 30,000$ followed by the increasing amounts of inflation which nailed the crypto coffin down below the monthly and yearly moving averages at around 17,800$. Due to these massive legs to the downside, retail investors are more cautious and anxious to even consider investing despite the massive amount of buying opportunities in a technical standpoint. The fear is also amplified by some crypto-exchanges suddenly withholding funds due to potential bankruptcies especially in the case of 3-Arrow and Celsius, Coinbase and Robinhood on the other hand, have already laid off a decent chunk of their employees as a sign of financial struggle to keep up with the market downturns.
-----------
Technical Analysis
On a macro-time frame (1D) chart, we can see an incredible amount of low volume in the price action of ETH from 880$ to 1,280$ which is not a very good sign and deliberately shows weakness in maintaining the movement. A low volume price action are also prone to manipulation wicks, which in the case of a bear market, is ever more than terrifying to hold both ways due to intense volatility. The Volume Profile (if you can pull it out yourself) shows a tremendous amount of volume traffic expected around the 300-500$ region with little to no volume from 600-750$ which means that these are unreliable demand levels if we fail to uphold the 17,000-18,000$ region (This could be the catalyst case if the CPI reports next month show an increased amount of inflation despite the recent increase in rate hike). The Relative Strength Index shows that we are still oversold but due to the fact that this is a lagging indicator as well as in the case for MACD, it is still recommended that we use decently smaller timeframes (1H-8H) to further confirm the strength of any trend or volume that can ripple its way to larger timeframes (1D,1W,1M,1Y).
You can almost draw four solid patterns in the current chart: A reverse HnS (failed), a HnS (still yet to be finished), a descending triangle (still yet to be finished) and a rising wedge from 17,800-21,800$ (confirmed due to breakdown).
In all summary, we are heading down in the short term until further bullish bias is entering the macro-markets.
If you liked the information above, don't forget to like and follow me for more future updates! You may also share this to your friends. Thank you for reading!
-Wamses
Note
Will start long at around 1,070$ up until 1,150$ when it retests back below.Original Short Position: 1,235$
Take Profit Level:1,025$
Profit Percentage: 34%
Leverage: 2x
Trade active
Shorted around 1,140$ after DXY pump news. Will start taking partial profits at around 1,050$
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.