Invalidation H&S confirmed, what's next?
Updated
Since the neckline broke 2 weeks ago, i tried to show an objective TA view on ETH', but i kept mentioning a few underlying (possible) signs showing something else might be going. Here below you can read part of my previous analysis:
ETH' just made a small drop and pump half hour ago. On the left we can see the daily volume increasing again compared to previous days, but what this candle does not show, is that so far half of that candle is buying volume . Which is not normal for a bearish version. We broke the neckline a week ago with some volume increase, but the increase actually happened with the second candle and not during the break of the neckline. That is not very odd but also not normal. With the move we did half hour ago, volume drop and just as much volume up again as well, also makes me think something else might be going on.
Past 2 days, we kept moving against and closely to that descending trend line on the left, which was a small sign on itself. Eventually after that trend line broke, the first part of the rally started, formed a small bull flag (like Bitcoin' at 3400) and shortly after the big short squeeze happened. As you can see now, the pattern below the H&S neckline, became a double bottom pattern.
The H&S got invalidated with a straight shot through the 115ish, so that weight is out of play on the short term. This doesn't mean bearish movement is not possible anymore, but not likely on the short. Up until yesterday's rally, the H&S was hanging above it, meaning it could dump at any moment. Now, even if we start to drop, it will be more likely in steps again. Anyway, volume is good and convincing, but the current bull flag is quite small compared to the flag pole. So it will need a lot of bullish conviction here to keep it inside of that bull flag. So a drop out of the flag won't be bad, but preferably it stays above the blue zone (neckline of the H&S) on the right. Below that level, things become neutral again. I think that is the level between the bull and bear zone.
A break of the blue zone on the left, will be a bad sign, could even be a big sell signal.
At the moment, ETH' bull flag seems to be very stable, there is a clear low, if that one breaks, we could see it drop to the 114ish (bitmex), this would still be a healthy correction level. Target of the current bull flag is around the 130, the red resistance zone on the right. Long term not much to say yet, only that the Dec high is a clear resistance and the longer term resistance zone is around 180/200.
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Previous analysis:
ETH' just made a small drop and pump half hour ago. On the left we can see the daily volume increasing again compared to previous days, but what this candle does not show, is that so far half of that candle is buying volume . Which is not normal for a bearish version. We broke the neckline a week ago with some volume increase, but the increase actually happened with the second candle and not during the break of the neckline. That is not very odd but also not normal. With the move we did half hour ago, volume drop and just as much volume up again as well, also makes me think something else might be going on.
Past 2 days, we kept moving against and closely to that descending trend line on the left, which was a small sign on itself. Eventually after that trend line broke, the first part of the rally started, formed a small bull flag (like Bitcoin' at 3400) and shortly after the big short squeeze happened. As you can see now, the pattern below the H&S neckline, became a double bottom pattern.
The H&S got invalidated with a straight shot through the 115ish, so that weight is out of play on the short term. This doesn't mean bearish movement is not possible anymore, but not likely on the short. Up until yesterday's rally, the H&S was hanging above it, meaning it could dump at any moment. Now, even if we start to drop, it will be more likely in steps again. Anyway, volume is good and convincing, but the current bull flag is quite small compared to the flag pole. So it will need a lot of bullish conviction here to keep it inside of that bull flag. So a drop out of the flag won't be bad, but preferably it stays above the blue zone (neckline of the H&S) on the right. Below that level, things become neutral again. I think that is the level between the bull and bear zone.
A break of the blue zone on the left, will be a bad sign, could even be a big sell signal.
At the moment, ETH' bull flag seems to be very stable, there is a clear low, if that one breaks, we could see it drop to the 114ish (bitmex), this would still be a healthy correction level. Target of the current bull flag is around the 130, the red resistance zone on the right. Long term not much to say yet, only that the Dec high is a clear resistance and the longer term resistance zone is around 180/200.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
Note
So far looking like a stable bull flag, but the bulls need to show a bit more conviction the coming hours. When comparing to the Dec rally, we should be in the yellow part now. Meaning, we need to see a bigger push up now, if we start to drop now, it could become a very weak flag and we could see another outcome. Weekend is almost over, so we should see the real direction of the market within 6/24 hours i think.
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