Ethereum About to Wipe All "Hopeful" Bulls A Last Time
Updated
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For those who have been following our charts on Tradingview and Telegram, you know we have been following this blue fractal for quite some time. Although it has some discrepancies compared to 2015, it's timing has still proven remarkable and accurate.
During the uptrend, I warned our members repeatedly to lock profit on the way up as that rally will not sustain due to the negligible $5-8 retraces which is unhealthy and due that a crash was eventually coming once the 3-Drive completes and it did. Currently we are standing at the area represented in green waiting for the Hard Fork on February 28 before crashing down to $104-100 initially and wiping all the bulls remaining who believe in a A&E bottom. The deadline for the bears to make this drop happen is March 8.
The bear case is in my opinion stronger than the bull case for many reasons once we drop to $128.50 and not limited to:
1. Strong rejection at 1W midband
2. Rejection at several resistance levels of confluence
3. Bear reversal through the large blue rising wedge (the last time it happened in December 2018, we full retraced down to $104-100)
4. Bear Reversal seen through a double top at $160 (double rising blue wedges)
5. Currently the 12H momentum has a death cross pending which could play out anytime in the next 1-3 days
6. Impending sell the news Constantinople Hard Fork event on February 28
We will be looking to buy the double bottom at either these two areas:
Target 1: 95-92
Target 2: $84-80
Stoploss: $75 - below this level we would see most likely Ethereum resuming the Bear Market towards $62-55 with a potential wick to $44-40.
For those who have been following our charts on Tradingview and Telegram, you know we have been following this blue fractal for quite some time. Although it has some discrepancies compared to 2015, it's timing has still proven remarkable and accurate.
During the uptrend, I warned our members repeatedly to lock profit on the way up as that rally will not sustain due to the negligible $5-8 retraces which is unhealthy and due that a crash was eventually coming once the 3-Drive completes and it did. Currently we are standing at the area represented in green waiting for the Hard Fork on February 28 before crashing down to $104-100 initially and wiping all the bulls remaining who believe in a A&E bottom. The deadline for the bears to make this drop happen is March 8.
The bear case is in my opinion stronger than the bull case for many reasons once we drop to $128.50 and not limited to:
1. Strong rejection at 1W midband
2. Rejection at several resistance levels of confluence
3. Bear reversal through the large blue rising wedge (the last time it happened in December 2018, we full retraced down to $104-100)
4. Bear Reversal seen through a double top at $160 (double rising blue wedges)
5. Currently the 12H momentum has a death cross pending which could play out anytime in the next 1-3 days
6. Impending sell the news Constantinople Hard Fork event on February 28
We will be looking to buy the double bottom at either these two areas:
Target 1: 95-92
Target 2: $84-80
Stoploss: $75 - below this level we would see most likely Ethereum resuming the Bear Market towards $62-55 with a potential wick to $44-40.
Trade active
Ethereum is in a falling wedge (please see short-term chart in our telegram channel). Which means our TA reasoning is so far spot on and we should see a drop to $127-125 in the incoming day or so. The fractal also still stands correct as of now. Remember today there is the Bittrex System Outage and tomorrow a potential sell the news event on for the Hard Fork.Note
Note
bottom of the falling wedge at $127-125 hit few hours later. Blue fractal followed so far.Note
The bottom of the wedge was hit at $127-125 (a good area to risk a buy) which resulted in a huge volume selloff and a strong reaction of the bottom support which pushed for a bart up. At this moment, we broke the top of the smaller wedge and will be extending our bounce probably to the top of the bigger wedge (purple fractal for a double top) I pictured earlier that has a top at $141-143 on Coinbase (max $146) which is a strong resistance (and good shorting area). I doubt we break that resistance just yet.We will be looking at the repeat of a bigger falling wedge (orange) again similar to the first one as we head towards the Hard Fork tomorrow and the Monthly Close. I will be watching that closely to see how we will close the day.
ETHUSD Fractal Updated Chart:
Note
Ethereum has spent the past few weeks in sideways above the horizontal support at $132-130. Currently we are inching very very closely to our readjusted stoploss at $129 on Coinbase (mirrored to ALTS).If $129 gets hit and broken with high volume, then the last bull neckline would fail and the orange falling wedge I have pointed to 2 weeks ago based on the fractal will play out and the market would wash down to the bottom support at $120-117 from this angle if we end up crashing or washing down. Typically you can place buy orders there to catch a scalp.
Note
It is not looking good for the bulls. I am now eyeing a washdown in the next few days if not in the next 24 hours to $103-101 initially from which we will bounce to $116-118.We are still within the falling wedge and ALTS have stalled or like most did not have a bull run.
If Ethereum breaks above the 1W midband/resistance at $133-135 then I reconsider and become cautiously bullish.
Note
We surely added more sideways above $130 to allow ALTS to have their ALTS season. But this will come down shortly once we break down from that blue rising wedge. I believe we should see the break down sometime around April 1 to April 15
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