Short

Alts Showing Strong Sign of Trend Failure

A common retracement level for a pullback is the 76 retracement fib. On the first rip off this ETH looked good for trend cont but this failed a long time ago with the failed new high.

Now we have further development of the failure of the uptrend with the 76 breaking again.

Here's a similar point where the doge trend failed.

Most alts failed to make new highs and if they did they made nominally higher once that ended in wicks - classic early tells of trend failure.

Most of them formed in harmonics. A known trend reversal pattern.

Others were even more underwhelming, failing to break the local downtrend structure.

Most of the ones that made new highs ended up looking like this.

Classic blow off pattern.

All of these are already or very close to showing signs of advanced bear trend development - that would be predicted to go on for a considerable amount of time.

We'd only be in the first real failure of the uptrends. The reality of the downtrend not yet really kicking in.

Note

I'd say it's fair to say by conventional measures most of these trends have failed.

Those who do not think so, are just going on "Delayed alt season".

I did say if these things failed they'd be subject to revisionism. But if the rules just change with the price - did they ever matter?

Note

The TA here really is very clear. It's impossible to make a solid TA uptrend case on these. The best odds would be in the 20-30% range for a rally.

But if this break comes a lot of people look set to sleepwalk into it, believing there was an easy known "Cycle".

It really is time to consider carefully where you get your info from. A lot of people are literally guessing they know the future and ignoring any evidence to the contrary.

That is a delusion.

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It's a big mistake to think all you've seen is all there is to see.

A far more realistic and testable pattern of "Cycles" in markets has been decade on, decade off. Where there are good conditions and bad conditions of around a decade or two each.

Here we are at the end of a hyper decade in all risk assets, there's been a full reversal of the policies that made that possible and people think they should be all in on the most speculative of stuff.

Because a cycle observed over a couple instances - which is failing before our very eyes.

Please think about it.

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You can test the idea markets oscillate over decades on literally everything over the last 100 years. You can not find one single example of the first 10 years producing a pattern that forecast the next 10 in anything!

The things crypto bulls cite, gold and tech. Look at them! Both of these went up for a decade and into a decade bear.

Check these things. Your odds are not good.

Note

Read this about interest rate cycles. Those might be more important.

You have to know about all the correlations. Not just pick one and be stubborn about it.

The Interest Rates Paradox and How it'd Predict a Market Top Now

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Isn't it crazy we live in the most opportunity filled world there has ever been. Now you can learn anything in a short period of time. Or at least learn how to get AI to help with it. You can do books, codes, research, build complex things, build simple things, automate the sales processes for things you create. There's never been a better world to earn being ahead.

And most of our younger people believe the only chance they have is gambling in penny coins.

What a sad state of affairs.

Note

When you try to talk to them about this and explain to them ways they could be using their resources to take things into their own hands and be in control of their fate rather than punting it in speculative markets based on nonsensical cycles ... they tell you "NGMI".

They'll say this to people who've already made it. People trying to tell them how they too can "Make it".

"Have fun staying poor" ... Not everyone wo doesn't gamble with what they have is poor. The very fact this is a catchphrase used all the time is a strong indicator that the people promoting this really don't have any idea of how to get ahead in life other than hoping for the best in speculative punts.

All this time and money people are wasting punting into hope coin they could be using to build themselves a sustainable future ... one where they have control.

Not hoping for random "Delayed cycles" because MoonBoi69420 said it coming now and you cant miss it or you'll die poor.

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90% of people who think they know the baked in market cycles for the next 20 - 30 or more years have under 5 years experience in the market.

I'd take some time to consider that.

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If the cycle thesis fails, I bet you these people who acted like they knew everything do not simply en mass say they got it wrong.

It'll be "Next cycle will be EVEN BIGGER".

And that'll just go on and on and on until eventually everyone learns not to listen to hype artists so say the same bullshit every day.

Which will take a long long long time.

Note

If things go as they expect, they'll be happy to take alllllll the credit.

And if not, they'll take none of the accountability.

While I am not foolish enough to pretend I know for certain how the market will move - this is what the punty promoters wil do. That I can be sure of.

holeyprofit

We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.

Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx

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holeyprofit

We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.

Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx

Also on: