Ethereum - Pump and dump on a horizon
September 2022 brings many exciting events for the stock and cryptocurrency markets alike. However, we will pay close attention mainly to two events in particular. The first event we will pay attention to is the “merge” with the soft deadline on the 19th of September 2022; the merge will see the current execution layer being combined with a new consensus layer. As a result, Ethereum will transit from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake. That, in turn, will eliminate the need for energy-intensive mining and give Ethereum a competitive edge against other cryptocurrencies.
While the transition is significant from an environmental and technological point of view, it is less significant from a trading perspective. It does not change the fact that the FED will continue to increase interest rates to battle inflation (which will subsequently weigh on the economy and lead to risk aversion). Additionally, the distribution of ETHW tokens (Ethereum on the old proof-of-work protocol) raises our concerns. Because of these “out of the thin air” tokens, we think there might be an initial increase in the price of Ethereum (especially before the merge). However, we expect a potential bounce to be temporary and newly created tokens to be dumped on the market together with Ethereum (after the merge).
Our bearish view is also supported by technical factors, which show very low liquidity in the market. Simultaneously, several technical indicators point to the downside for ETHUSD. Because of that, we stick to our price target at 1 000 USD and 900 USD
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of ETHUSD. The green arrow indicates a price increase. The red arrow indicates a volume decrease. These developments, occurring simultaneously, often foreshadow a trend reversal (in this case, a trend of a lesser degree).
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and Stochastic are bullish. MACD is neutral; however, if it breaks above 0 points, it will bolster the bullish case in the short term. DM+ and DM- perform whipsaws, while ADX contains a relatively low value. Overall, the daily time frame is mixed.
Illustration 1.02
The image above displays the daily chart of ETHUSD and simple support/resistance levels. Ideally, we would like to see a breakout below the short-term support; that will bolster the bearish case for Ethereum.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI and Stochastic are slightly bullish. MACD is neutral. DM+ and DM- stay bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is less bearish than a week ago.
Illustration 1.03
Illustration 1.03 shows the weekly chart of ETHUSD and two moving averages. The yellow arrow indicates the natural retracement toward the 20-week SMA. Ideally, we would like to see the price stay below this average.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
While the transition is significant from an environmental and technological point of view, it is less significant from a trading perspective. It does not change the fact that the FED will continue to increase interest rates to battle inflation (which will subsequently weigh on the economy and lead to risk aversion). Additionally, the distribution of ETHW tokens (Ethereum on the old proof-of-work protocol) raises our concerns. Because of these “out of the thin air” tokens, we think there might be an initial increase in the price of Ethereum (especially before the merge). However, we expect a potential bounce to be temporary and newly created tokens to be dumped on the market together with Ethereum (after the merge).
Our bearish view is also supported by technical factors, which show very low liquidity in the market. Simultaneously, several technical indicators point to the downside for ETHUSD. Because of that, we stick to our price target at 1 000 USD and 900 USD
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of ETHUSD. The green arrow indicates a price increase. The red arrow indicates a volume decrease. These developments, occurring simultaneously, often foreshadow a trend reversal (in this case, a trend of a lesser degree).
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and Stochastic are bullish. MACD is neutral; however, if it breaks above 0 points, it will bolster the bullish case in the short term. DM+ and DM- perform whipsaws, while ADX contains a relatively low value. Overall, the daily time frame is mixed.
Illustration 1.02
The image above displays the daily chart of ETHUSD and simple support/resistance levels. Ideally, we would like to see a breakout below the short-term support; that will bolster the bearish case for Ethereum.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI and Stochastic are slightly bullish. MACD is neutral. DM+ and DM- stay bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is less bearish than a week ago.
Illustration 1.03
Illustration 1.03 shows the weekly chart of ETHUSD and two moving averages. The yellow arrow indicates the natural retracement toward the 20-week SMA. Ideally, we would like to see the price stay below this average.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
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