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Ethereum
Long

ETH/USD - Setting up for a long

By Acel
Updated
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Ethereum has a more clear potential bottom set up than Bitcoin. If thats the case, alts may start to rally before Bitcoin does.

Market sentiment on Finex is at Equilibrium. Not many people want to short at those levels so longs are slowly stacking up.

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Moment of truth, pay attention to the orderbook.
Trade active
Should be missing once last minor move down according to the count above.

Got partially filled so lets set this active.
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Seems better than Bitcoin. This massive 3rd wave should be coming into an end at those levels and since its too big the fifth has more chances to truncate. If you were long its a nice opportunity to take some profits up here.
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Original plan was to close the trade somewhere up here since it has 5 waves up and got partially filled. But! It was a strong breakout and momentum is parabolic. It stopped exactly at 1:1 of the triangle break out, so triangle traders that scalped this will take profit here. It might even test 500$ but keep an eye on those levels since:
1) Till now there is a bearish DIV on 150m
2) Alts are about to complete 5 waves up
3) Bitcoin found resistance on the 0.786 retracement
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Trade closed manually
Closed the trade with the break of 472. Something worrying is that it still got rejected on this down trend channel upper resistance.
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On the 15H time frame it has both cloud and trend resistance along with the short term bull cycle possibly coming to an end.
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Trying to find a count on smaller time frames, looks like a flat correction so far.
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It seems like the B wave is in, a little lower than expected since it retraced more.

It could be done correcting, like Bitcoin, but the retracements are very shallow so its less likely.

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This is the only bullish count i can find. Its hard to miss the very obvious algo activity that makes this structure hard to label. The targets are right to the tick. You can see the next target in case this pivot doesn't hold.

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As long as the structure favors it this is a must buy in my books. You dont have to buy it, obviously, but watch the reaction around this area, next attempt is way lower at ~416.
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It can have a wick that will make a new low (in case its not an internal retracement) so adjust the entry accordingly if you want to play this.
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Didnt want to push an update since this was getting risky, hopefully this is the low for now.
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There are chances for a pullback here, RSI resistance on 15h, it either slams trough with volume or retraces lower. I cant fit a count quite yet but low 430s is a nice area to join (with the current data). There is a chance that this is only the 3rd wave of the (expanding?) diagonal fifth so it might retrace lower. If thats the case you can use retracements of the current bounce as an extra fib to find the last wave.
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Im not quite sure if the bounce is impulsive or not. Most likely its corrective?
I will just leave the expanding diagonal scenario here in case it plays out, take profits if you were long from a good entry.

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Posted a comment below, not 100% related to the idea but you might wanna check it out along with the mini rant.
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Signals for pullback/consolidation on this area. My indicators show that this is a 3rd wave.

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Working as intended! lol
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Keep an eye on the shorts, they are below support, they should start pilling up here before a last leg down, so there is more upside, ideally. Will try to fit a count but its hard because of the orthodox low. Its either the 3rd ending somewhere here, or an extension on the fifth.
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Im still not sure whats the correct count is here but there should be some pause on the highlighted areas, they were also tops on the previous uptrend.
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Oscillators point to an extension on the 3rd(missing its 5th subwave).
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Assuming that BTC has one more leg up, this should be it. BTC pair has support at 0.07.
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Trade closed: target reached
Landed on the box. Thanks for playing.
Elliott WaveethreumETHUSDFibonacciOscillators
Acel
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