Alts Need Buyers To Step In (ETH + TOTAL2)
Updated
Based on the weekly ETH/USD chart, you can see that it's barely holding on to the $130 support level. It's encouraging that we experienced a pretty deep failed low recently, but time is running out for the bulls. The 100w MA (green) is starting to curve aggressively downwards, and Ethereum is trapped in a large wedge. It's possible that ETH is actually also in a broadening wedge pattern, which gives some decent room to the upside from here if we can continue to find buyers. The broadening wedge resistance is now around $200. In theory, ETH can head straight up there at any moment, but price action is still extremely weak. TOTAL2 has held the 50B area as support, which is pretty important. Just as with Bitcoin, we really need to clear these downtrends.
Dominance also looks like it's primed to make a new high, and this can happen whether or not Bitcoin moves up. What I really wanted to see is this move up for dominance be short-lived. It's still possible alts pump on their ratios, but I think it would be silly to bet on this until the massive rising wedge breaks down. This could take many weeks.
As for some individual alts, XRP is now below the important $0.20 level. This should be an important liquidity zone, so I'd really like to see XRP rally back above $0.20 and then $0.26. Once $0.26 clears, I think it's possible for XRP to go on a much bigger rally. Litecoin is also holding the $40 level. As I explained in a recent post, this could easily mean that the correction is over, and that it can head up to test levels between $60 and $100. Unfortunately, NANO (a mid-cap crypto I support) has broken below the $0.70 support level that it has held for over a year. Although the selloff hasn't really accelerated, NANO risks dying out if it can't get back above 70 cents. Interestingly, VET and NEO still look fairly strong. Those two are now my best performing crypto assets, outperforming even Ethereum. XLM still looks pretty awful, but if it can reclaim 5 cents, that would be a good sign. All these coins are still in macro downtrends, so it should be pretty obvious if any of them start to really break out.
That's it for alts! I have a busy couple of weeks ahead, but will provide updates when I can. It felt good to not pay any attention to this market for the last 11 days, so I'll probably be spending some more time away. Just wanted to write a couple of updates today, to show my current outlook. Overall, I'm feeling pretty numb to the market, and I'm just waiting for buyers to prove themselves. My own apathetic sentiment may be a good signal that things won't get much worse for cryptocurrencies...but I will still emphasize that there is no real reason to make wild bets here, until we break some major downtrends. Current prices may be a great opportunity for those who want some long term crypto exposure, but one would really need patience and proper risk management.
My posts are not meant as financial advice! They should be used for educational and speculative purposes only.
-Victor Cobra
Dominance also looks like it's primed to make a new high, and this can happen whether or not Bitcoin moves up. What I really wanted to see is this move up for dominance be short-lived. It's still possible alts pump on their ratios, but I think it would be silly to bet on this until the massive rising wedge breaks down. This could take many weeks.
As for some individual alts, XRP is now below the important $0.20 level. This should be an important liquidity zone, so I'd really like to see XRP rally back above $0.20 and then $0.26. Once $0.26 clears, I think it's possible for XRP to go on a much bigger rally. Litecoin is also holding the $40 level. As I explained in a recent post, this could easily mean that the correction is over, and that it can head up to test levels between $60 and $100. Unfortunately, NANO (a mid-cap crypto I support) has broken below the $0.70 support level that it has held for over a year. Although the selloff hasn't really accelerated, NANO risks dying out if it can't get back above 70 cents. Interestingly, VET and NEO still look fairly strong. Those two are now my best performing crypto assets, outperforming even Ethereum. XLM still looks pretty awful, but if it can reclaim 5 cents, that would be a good sign. All these coins are still in macro downtrends, so it should be pretty obvious if any of them start to really break out.
That's it for alts! I have a busy couple of weeks ahead, but will provide updates when I can. It felt good to not pay any attention to this market for the last 11 days, so I'll probably be spending some more time away. Just wanted to write a couple of updates today, to show my current outlook. Overall, I'm feeling pretty numb to the market, and I'm just waiting for buyers to prove themselves. My own apathetic sentiment may be a good signal that things won't get much worse for cryptocurrencies...but I will still emphasize that there is no real reason to make wild bets here, until we break some major downtrends. Current prices may be a great opportunity for those who want some long term crypto exposure, but one would really need patience and proper risk management.
My posts are not meant as financial advice! They should be used for educational and speculative purposes only.
-Victor Cobra
Note
Quick update: ETH is still moving sideways between $126 support and $137 previous support turned resistance. Based on my chart, you can see that we can really be in a broadening wedge formation, which is actually very bullish. The reasoning is that the volume peaks all occur on touches of the two broadening wedge trendlines. A breakdown here would probably send ETH to the low $100's, but a move up could send us straight towards $191-200. Confirmation for the upside would be if we get decisively back above $137-140. Note
Almost at the broadening wedge target. Let's see if it can get up there. Note
$180 is a very important resistance for ETH, so not surprised at this pullback. Now, can ETH break the 200d MA and head towards $200? Might take more correction/consolidation. We'll see. What we don't want is ETH breaking below the 100d MA (green) again. Note
Meanwhile, TOTAL2 made it PRECISELY to the 2nd major resistance on my chart. It's now holding above 74B and the 200d MA. It's also above the 200W MA (around 71B). We ideally want to close the week above both. Let's see what happens today. I will probably do a video update after the weekly close. Note
WOW. Right on the money. ETH hit the broadening wedge resistance perfectly. Might need some consolidation before it breaks up towards $255. It has plenty of room to dance around now between 160ish and $200. $215 is also a very important level. 
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