ETH_1D_ASCENDING_CHANNEL _SETUP
Updated
ETH is currently forming an ascending channel in the higher time frame (HTF). Although the position is currently neutral, the lower trend line needs to be respected for the accumulation of long positions at each bounce. A bullish signal can be expected if the price continues to respect the lower trend line. As long as the price advances and trades within the channel, the trend is relatively bullish. However, a break below the lower trend line would indicate a trend change. The desired scenario is a breakout above the channel line with strong volume, which would be bullish and could lead to a strong price advance. A confirmed breakout and retest at $1864 (weekly resistance) is required, followed by a push towards $2030, which involves cracking weekly and monthly resistance.
Early entry: 1.8
Entry: 2.0
TP 1: $2345
TP 2: $2718
TP3: $2948
Please note that the information provided is for entertainment purposes only and should not be considered trading advice or personal investment advice. The response does not take into account your individual circumstances or financial situation, and any investment decisions you make should be based on your own research and analysis.
Early entry: 1.8
Entry: 2.0
TP 1: $2345
TP 2: $2718
TP3: $2948
Please note that the information provided is for entertainment purposes only and should not be considered trading advice or personal investment advice. The response does not take into account your individual circumstances or financial situation, and any investment decisions you make should be based on your own research and analysis.
Note
On the 4-hour time frame, we're observing a flag pattern as the price navigates the ascending channel on the 1D time frame, which adds to the confluence of bullish bias. However, it's important to note that the overall trend is still sideways, and the direction of BTC will be a significant factor in determining the trend. Stack odds in our favor before entering the trade.Note
As we wait for BTC to break 28k mark, and move toward our ETH trading roadmap, let's examine the fundamental factors behind ETH and its upcoming Shanghai upgrade, scheduled for April 12, 2023. The upgrade may lead to two contrasting effects: investors may either sell their ETH as they withdraw their staked tokens or buy more ETH as they seek higher yields. The withdrawal process may cause some selling, but it's expected to have a minor impact. The increased rewards and interest in ETH based LSDs may boost their value and attract more funds, increasing their TVL and overall valuation. This could be more bullish trend for ETH-based LSDs as they can withdraw their staked ETH at any time.*Shanghai upgrade for ETH is expected to have minimal impact on selling due to the withdrawal process and limited daily withdrawal limit for staked ETH.
*The reduction in the number of validators and the deflationary nature of ETH may boost buyers to hold and stake.
*LSDs are experiencing a surge in value pre-upgrade as they offer an easier way to stake without a minimum deposit (32ETH).
Trade active
The breakout of ETH from the Flag pattern in the 4HR chart is a positive indication of a structural shift. We've begun scaling in, but on the 1D timeframe, we've hit the high at 1892 and exited the ascending channel pattern. For those who prefer lower risk, scaling in at the 2k level would be a viable option. Remember to adjust your stop losses, mark your invalidation levels, and avoid getting wick’d out.Note
Nice breakthrough here tapping the high at 1916. Safe to say we've completely left the ascending channel on the daily time frame. I'll look to deploy size during the expected pullback. So far so good.Note
As we anticipated this pullback, I’m adding to my ETH position at these levels leading up to the Shanghai upgrade. I have no intention of reducing my risk exposure as the price is supported by a solid 1845 level and the 4-hour chart shows the price above our flag pattern coinciding with the .382 retracement fib.
For those who have been tracking the BTC trade idea, the prolonged consolidation may reach a resolution with the March CPI data scheduled on April 12th, coinciding with the Shanghai/Cappella upgrade. As a result, I don't mind padding long positions here until the price sweeps through my invalidation levels.
On April 12th, the macro spotlight will be on the following:
Inflation rate MoM, core inflation rate MoM, core inflation rate YoY, CPI, and FOMC minutes.
Note
ETH is closely tracking the initial momentum of BTC. A positive sign of a strong uptrend towards the Shanghai upgrade in 48 hours would be a test above our prior peak of 1943. Despite analysts' repeated assertions that the upgrade will not have a significant impact on the market and has already been priced in, I believe there is still a considerable amount of potential for growth. This surge is a sneak peek of what may be in store.Note
The price of ETH reached 1939, falling short of our previous high of 1943. Nevertheless, this demonstrates positive momentum above the 1900 level. I'll monitor the market for consolidation at this level, as we approach the Shanghai / Capella upgrade and the publication of CPI data within the next 24 hours. On the downside, bears may have created a double top (1st top 1943 and 2nd top 1939) with a neckline at 1825, attempting to push the price lower. We can hold off increasing our risk exposure due to the upcoming macroeconomic events. Reminder, we want to observe, validate and confirm P/A before adding to our risk.Moving forward, we should keep an eye on two scenarios. Firstly, a bearish trend (4HR chart) with a double top forming and a potential breakout below the neckline at 1825. Secondly, a bullish trend with consolidation above 1900 and the potential to leverage positive macro sentiment to surpass the previous high in 1943. Taking our the previous high is our signal for uptrend continuation.
Note
Post Shapella / EIP 4895 Update: Following the Shapella upgrade, over 1.3bn worth of Ether has been withdrawn with an average of 380mn per day. Additionally, there are currently 17.5mn Ether staked, accounting for roughly 15% of the total Ether supply. This data highlights the high demand for Ether and the continued interest in Ethereum's proof-of-stake consensus mechanism, which in my view could provide a sustained rally.
Lastly, considering the amount of ETH being sold in the market, it is probable that there will be a surge in selling pressure in the short run. However, this should be seen as a minor correction due to the withdrawal limits.
CPI and FOMC minutes Update:
See BTC trade idea for added reference.
Note
ETH invalidated the double top on the technical front, and bears are attempting to push the price toward the neckline at 1825. Despite this, ETH is exhibiting stability above the 1900 level and consolidating on a bullish trend line. It has been printing higher lows starting from 1687, 1764, 1824, and 1856. Keep an eye on these P/A bounces off our bullish trendline. Still waiting on confirmation for the price to attack the most recent high at 1943. Although it's worth noting we've made several runs at this level in 1939 and 1934. Holding here.Note
ETH has surged past its previous high 1943 (third times the charm) and reached a new high of the day (NHOD) at 2131 post-Shappella upgrade, in line with the potential rally highlighted earlier. While the bullish thesis has great optics, it's important to note that ETH has gone through 12 bars, 2d in 426k volume, which could indicate a correction in the short term. Nevertheless, the next crucial step is to look for a S/R flip above the key level of 2030 to sustain momentum. Open position up 14% from entry. Stay the course. Nuance:
Short-term consolidation leading to a massive bullish candle can be a strong signal, but it's important to analyze the broader market context and underlying fundamentals to determine if the price action is sustainable. Be patient and let the trade come to you, no need to be trigger-happy, the correction will come and we'll snipe bearish wick to pad our position.
Note
Despite experiencing a 9% drop from its previous high of 2142, ETH has shown signs of a potential correction with a short period of consolidation and breakout referenced earlier in this thread. While the bears are currently driving the momentum down, from a structural perspective, ETH is still maintaining higher lows along the top of our initial ascending channel pattern. If the bears continue to push the price down and breach 1832, our position will be invalidated. To mitigate our risk, we have deployed tight stops and will break even on this trade if the decline persists. We are also hedging against bearish momentum with our XRP trade idea. It's important to note that our position is still open, and we can let it run until it breaks higher lows, given our scaled-in position. Open pos 2% in the black.
Pierre Pressure
FOCUS - FIGHT - WIN
FOCUS - FIGHT - WIN
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