EthereumLong
ETH Challenges Key $400 Resistance
Updated
ETH broke over its key $400 resistance yesterday (shown on the chart in blue) and Bitcoin broke over its resistance at $12000 before they both had a large, rapid dump back below support. This was pretty much expected as I explained in previous posts--$400 has been a significant turning point price for ETH going back to 2017 (see yellow circles on chart). So I expect it could take some time and a few runs at $400 before that level gives way to higher prices. I am bullish on crypto, and ETH in particular, so I've put a "buy zone" under $300 in purple.
Despite the noted "buy" and "sell zones," I'm not selling at $400, I'm simply holding long term. The larger cryptos have made significant returns for anyone that has managed to hold long term. Meanwhile crypto is volatile and most traders tend to underperform those that simply. hold.
Anyone reading my ideas knows I'm bearish on the equity market. I see the equity market at the tail end of long, aging bull market. And lately equity prices are going up despite an economic catastrophe that in some ways is worse than the Great Depression. I simply don't see reliable upside in equities and I see the potential for massive downside. I mention this because crypto could take a hit if/when the stock market eventually succumbs to reality and again falls to March lows (and possibly lower). However unlike the stock market, crypto has been in a bear market since 2018 and has spent considerable time consolidating its lows. Perhaps crypto (and maybe gold) will perform better in a new equity bear market compared to most other assets.
Despite the noted "buy" and "sell zones," I'm not selling at $400, I'm simply holding long term. The larger cryptos have made significant returns for anyone that has managed to hold long term. Meanwhile crypto is volatile and most traders tend to underperform those that simply. hold.
Anyone reading my ideas knows I'm bearish on the equity market. I see the equity market at the tail end of long, aging bull market. And lately equity prices are going up despite an economic catastrophe that in some ways is worse than the Great Depression. I simply don't see reliable upside in equities and I see the potential for massive downside. I mention this because crypto could take a hit if/when the stock market eventually succumbs to reality and again falls to March lows (and possibly lower). However unlike the stock market, crypto has been in a bear market since 2018 and has spent considerable time consolidating its lows. Perhaps crypto (and maybe gold) will perform better in a new equity bear market compared to most other assets.
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ETH has been poking at $400 the last day or so. I don't think it will get over $400 without more of a retracement first, but I'd love it if it does break higher. If $400 breaks, ETH will likely run to $800 quite rapidly.Note
Crypto trades 24/7, so moves can happen any time. It currently looks like Ethereum is breaking above $400 right now... it's gone higher than the initial break on Aug 1 that quickly fell back below $400. ETH has been consolidating below $400 for two weeks and never really pulled back much. If this breakout holds, I think it will start a run that goes to $800 without much trouble (and it might do it quickly). As I've said before, I'm not thrilled with the hugely overbought and completely ridiculous rally in the equity market, but I'm very excited about the rally being born in crypto and this breakout in ETH in particular.
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Still well over $400 and holding. On a daily term chart ETH has a nice stair-step pattern of gain and then sideways consolidation and then gain. Looks good to hold over $400.Note
ETH is holding up over $400, consolidating its breakout move.Bitcoin is following ETH and breaking over its key resistance at $12,000 which is bullish for crypto. I'm not going to bother making a chart for it--I'm bullish on bitcoin but I don't see it as very important. Bitcoin was first, and it has the name recognition, but I don't see it as doing anything worthy of being the largest crypto. I think the odds are good that at some point in the future some other crypto will be recognized as more important and bitcoin will fall to the 2nd biggest crypto in market cap and perhaps lower.
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Ethereum is moving up today, over the previous highs from last month when ETH finally broke over $400. These new highs for the year confirm the breakout over $400 and set the crypto nicely on track for its next resistance at $800. I wouldn't be surprised to see ETH nearing $800 within a couple months.Bitcoin is lagging and still under $12,000. But again I don't see Bitcoin as very exciting or important except as confirmation of the crypto space being bullish. It should eventually follow the more interesting coins up if the crypto space stays bullish. If it continues to lag it might look like a non-confirming signal and could hold back everything else.
I suspect ETH will one day surpass bitcoin in "marketcap" and take over leadership. That day can't come soon enough IMO. I don't see why Bitcoin should be the largest crypto and be looked to for leadership of the space when it is not among the crypto technology leaders anymore.
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As I said yesterday, Bitcoin lagging and failing to move over $12,000 might hold back everything else, and that's what's happened. Bitcoin moved right up to $12,000 yesterday but failed to break over that resistance, and now the entire crypto space is down with Ethereum reversing it's gains from yesterday.Some conspiracy theorists have suggested bitcoin price today is manipulated by Wall Street. In particular it's said that the bitcoin futures market at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is used to force bitcoin price down without actually needing to buy or sell any actual bitcoin (a similar claim is often made about gold and the gold futures market). I don't know if there is any truth to that, but there could be something to it.
The entire bitcoin market is small--half the size of just TSLA stock alone. Before the futures market, bitcoin price was set by the relatively small amount of bitcoin trade flow across the various bitcoin exchanges. Now there is a highly leveraged parallel market in bitcoin futures contracts that interacts with bitcoin price. That parallel market does not use bitcoins and is not constrained to the actual bitcoins being used to set price on the exchanges. So you have a market with a leveraged effect on bitcoin price completely detached from bitcoins, with the ability to totally dominate the small actual bitcoin market trade flow--sounds like trouble. And the kicker is a very odd coincidence--the EXACT DAY the the futures market in bitcoin went live was the exact day bitcoin topped at around $20,000 and the entire crypto space has been in a bear market ever since.
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ETH is getting close to the "buy zone" under $300.Note
Hope everyone is long ETH here. Bitcoin has broken to new all time highs and ETH will likely follow by early next year. I expect ETH will return a lot more than Bitcoin.Note
Bitcoin hitting $28,000 this morning I suspect is the top for Bitcoin for a while. As tends to happen, once bitcoin contracts and consolidates for a while, altcoins will make a run as money shits into them. Ethereum just broke to new highs for the year at $695 and I expect it will run for a while, taking out its all time highs at $1400 and probably running even farther.Just my opinion and not investing advice, but I am very long ETH here.
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Traders are pushing up ETH massively today as Bitcoin has made such an extended move it's likely to take a break and give ETH a move. IMO be long ETH or be wrong.Note
I haven't updated ETH in a while because I'm doing nothing but holding. This is a long term hold. It's moved incredibly well since I mentioned it, and I have no intention of selling. It's moving to new all time highs today as it continues up. Go, baby, go!
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