AT CryptoScan - ETHUSD Daily analysis for better understanding
Updated
In a previous AT CryptoScan post, Bitcoin was detailed on how it was actually bearish in nature. Since then, BTC has moved decisively downwards, and should continue to do so. This analysis is on Ethereum, using a simple(r) series of indicators that include MACD, HULL Moving Average, and TD Sequential, together with support and resistance ranges, on the ETHUSD daily chart.
The daily chart is marked from 2022 YTD.
The TD Sequential ranges are marked with a red box for the TD Buy Setup, and green box for the TD Sell Setup. Rules of the TD indicators can be found in Thomas Demark's masterpiece books, and a review version by Jason Perl.
At the end of 2021, ETH levelled off with a double top about 4900, and as 2022 started, ETH broke down below the HULL Moving average (89,5) [ you can use any moving average of your preference here ]. Then we observe the formation of the first TD Sequential (Buy Setup) in mid January. This was the start of the downtrend. The downtrend was challenged by two subsequent TD Sequential Sell Setup (end Jan-early Feb and mid-March), but the TD Sequential was still indicating the primary trend is a downtrend. This was further confirmed HULL MA failure in early April, which subsequently saw the next TD Sequential Buy Setup of a larger range in early May. This was not the main TD Seq Setup in force. Then this was super-ceded by a yet larger range TD Sequential Buy Setup. Thus mid June TD Seq Setup was the main downtrend indicator in force. The ceiling of the range formed a TDST (resistance/support) line that the opposing TD Seq Sell Setup needed to exceed.
Although the subsequent months saw ETHUSD rally from a low of 884 to 2029, there was never a completed TD Seq Sell Setup formed, even though prices broke above the TDST for a number of days. This was a clear bear rally.
And with the breakdown of the TDST just days ago, it was very clear that the bears are back to claim territory and supremacy.
The MACD all this time was indicative of the price movement and give insights into what just might happen, in alignmentt with the TD Sequential.
For example,
the MACD Signal line crossed under the zero line in late November 2021, indicating bearish tones.
the MACD crossed under the MACD Signal line just after the failure of the HULL MA in early April; but the MACD histograms were earlier indicating that this already imminent.
in July, the MACD was showing a rally in force as price broke out of a consolidation range ( dark box )
in August, the MACD was losing steam and crossed down the MACD Signal line just after breaking back down the TDST. The small white arrow is where I called and cleared the crypto portfolio (this is a personal choice), only to have cryptocurrencies tank just hours later.
So, in essence, it appears that ETHUSD (and presumably the other majors like BTC & friends) are turning south for a period. Downside targets are 1300 and 1000 respectively. Expecting a higher low in this process, then only can a robust TD Seq Sell Setup be formed that breaks and stays above the TDST (1834).
In the longer run, especially from November onwards, I see ETHUSD bouncing back stronger than ever... perhaps mid September during the "Merge", and perhaps some volatility till November for clearance.
I hope you enjoyed this analysis narrative!
Stay well and safe!
The daily chart is marked from 2022 YTD.
The TD Sequential ranges are marked with a red box for the TD Buy Setup, and green box for the TD Sell Setup. Rules of the TD indicators can be found in Thomas Demark's masterpiece books, and a review version by Jason Perl.
At the end of 2021, ETH levelled off with a double top about 4900, and as 2022 started, ETH broke down below the HULL Moving average (89,5) [ you can use any moving average of your preference here ]. Then we observe the formation of the first TD Sequential (Buy Setup) in mid January. This was the start of the downtrend. The downtrend was challenged by two subsequent TD Sequential Sell Setup (end Jan-early Feb and mid-March), but the TD Sequential was still indicating the primary trend is a downtrend. This was further confirmed HULL MA failure in early April, which subsequently saw the next TD Sequential Buy Setup of a larger range in early May. This was not the main TD Seq Setup in force. Then this was super-ceded by a yet larger range TD Sequential Buy Setup. Thus mid June TD Seq Setup was the main downtrend indicator in force. The ceiling of the range formed a TDST (resistance/support) line that the opposing TD Seq Sell Setup needed to exceed.
Although the subsequent months saw ETHUSD rally from a low of 884 to 2029, there was never a completed TD Seq Sell Setup formed, even though prices broke above the TDST for a number of days. This was a clear bear rally.
And with the breakdown of the TDST just days ago, it was very clear that the bears are back to claim territory and supremacy.
The MACD all this time was indicative of the price movement and give insights into what just might happen, in alignmentt with the TD Sequential.
For example,
the MACD Signal line crossed under the zero line in late November 2021, indicating bearish tones.
the MACD crossed under the MACD Signal line just after the failure of the HULL MA in early April; but the MACD histograms were earlier indicating that this already imminent.
in July, the MACD was showing a rally in force as price broke out of a consolidation range ( dark box )
in August, the MACD was losing steam and crossed down the MACD Signal line just after breaking back down the TDST. The small white arrow is where I called and cleared the crypto portfolio (this is a personal choice), only to have cryptocurrencies tank just hours later.
So, in essence, it appears that ETHUSD (and presumably the other majors like BTC & friends) are turning south for a period. Downside targets are 1300 and 1000 respectively. Expecting a higher low in this process, then only can a robust TD Seq Sell Setup be formed that breaks and stays above the TDST (1834).
In the longer run, especially from November onwards, I see ETHUSD bouncing back stronger than ever... perhaps mid September during the "Merge", and perhaps some volatility till November for clearance.
I hope you enjoyed this analysis narrative!
Stay well and safe!
Note
And so it happenedMore downside expected...
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