ETH-USD Continued Decline - Bear Flag Formed - Potential SHORT
Updated
This is a continuation of the short trades I have been making on ETH over the past month and a half. Especially my most recent call of a third descending triangle that formed and seems to have fully been confirmed. As you can see ETH broke down as soon as it crossed the lower bound of the descending triangle;
I was able to make a couple trades off of this break down, unfortunately I missed my alerts on my phone and only got in on the tail end of this first decline. However, I think ETH has further down to go before we can see any sort of upwards momentum. Seeing the most recent MACD cross on the 1 day chart (Point "C"), and the resulting price decline that perfectly coincides with the two times this pattern formed (Points "A" and "B" on both the main chart and MACD). Because of this I am anticipating a further drop.
On this most recent MACD cross I was able to enter and exit two positions on both days. On the first decline from the $225 range down to sub $200, I caught the tail end and entered a derivative position at 203.00 and exited at 197.50, the derivative was trading at somewhat of a large discount to ETH. This trade was in and out in under 10 minutes, I already missed most of the action, and while it was only a 2.71% gain, at 25 x leverage I netted a decent 67%+ gain, almost identical to my other trade mentioned earlier. On the Bear Flag charts I originally made back in late September.
Yesterday I was able to get entries at 1197.50/ETH (derivatives again) and closed along the way down all the way to 187/ETH. This was also a very quick trade, I only had a position open for less than 30 minutes. I netted 5.32% on this movement, my past trades were at 25 x leverage, this one was only at 15 x which means I only got 79.7% on the trade. Could've had more on a higher leverage.
My success rate on these trades has definitely increased as the patterns seem to be continually confirming themselves. I've had a few early entries (before I was publishing my ideas) but the past 3 trades I've made and posted here were very successful, I believe this success is a result of being more patient and choosing better entry and exit points.
Currently I am seeing another Bear Flag formation (on the 30minute) which I believe could turn into a greater continuation of the trend. I am eyeing very specific points for entry as illustrated by the Fib retracement which I extended to the lowest point on this timeline. Based on this I am looking for a downward cross on the MACD (30 minute - 1 day cross is still in play) to confirm the continuation. This would be a drop below $196 range.
From there I am expecting a drop to $188 territory, and then we could see some really interesting action in the form of a solid rebound or a testing of lower points for ETH prices.
I am playing tight stop loss and exit points, which you can see on the chart. This is due to my leverage on the derivative instruments. Play along at your own risk.
Best of luck mates.
Fair winds and following seas.
I was able to make a couple trades off of this break down, unfortunately I missed my alerts on my phone and only got in on the tail end of this first decline. However, I think ETH has further down to go before we can see any sort of upwards momentum. Seeing the most recent MACD cross on the 1 day chart (Point "C"), and the resulting price decline that perfectly coincides with the two times this pattern formed (Points "A" and "B" on both the main chart and MACD). Because of this I am anticipating a further drop.
On this most recent MACD cross I was able to enter and exit two positions on both days. On the first decline from the $225 range down to sub $200, I caught the tail end and entered a derivative position at 203.00 and exited at 197.50, the derivative was trading at somewhat of a large discount to ETH. This trade was in and out in under 10 minutes, I already missed most of the action, and while it was only a 2.71% gain, at 25 x leverage I netted a decent 67%+ gain, almost identical to my other trade mentioned earlier. On the Bear Flag charts I originally made back in late September.
Yesterday I was able to get entries at 1197.50/ETH (derivatives again) and closed along the way down all the way to 187/ETH. This was also a very quick trade, I only had a position open for less than 30 minutes. I netted 5.32% on this movement, my past trades were at 25 x leverage, this one was only at 15 x which means I only got 79.7% on the trade. Could've had more on a higher leverage.
My success rate on these trades has definitely increased as the patterns seem to be continually confirming themselves. I've had a few early entries (before I was publishing my ideas) but the past 3 trades I've made and posted here were very successful, I believe this success is a result of being more patient and choosing better entry and exit points.
Currently I am seeing another Bear Flag formation (on the 30minute) which I believe could turn into a greater continuation of the trend. I am eyeing very specific points for entry as illustrated by the Fib retracement which I extended to the lowest point on this timeline. Based on this I am looking for a downward cross on the MACD (30 minute - 1 day cross is still in play) to confirm the continuation. This would be a drop below $196 range.
From there I am expecting a drop to $188 territory, and then we could see some really interesting action in the form of a solid rebound or a testing of lower points for ETH prices.
I am playing tight stop loss and exit points, which you can see on the chart. This is due to my leverage on the derivative instruments. Play along at your own risk.
Best of luck mates.
Fair winds and following seas.
Trade active
This has moved downwards into my target entry points pretty quickly since I published. To me it looks like we may have stepped out of any recoverable range for ETH;I think we can see an extension of the downtrend established by the original descending triangle confirmed pattern and the 1 hr MACD cross resulting from this.
I am going to ease into this position, I've already opened contracts at $193.65, the derivative is still trading at a discount. For reference the contracts are at $193.85 now, from some upward movement since I entered in the last few minutes.
Will be sure to update.
Order cancelled
I've decided to move a little more conservatively instead of hoping for an early entry based on the 30min, I will be waiting for a cross on the 1hr. I already closed my derivative position of $193.65 at net 0, excluding fees, and I will be waiting to re-enter, potentially in the next hour. Note the arrow pointing at both a potential breach of the lower bound of my anticipated bear-flag, as well as the MACD cross that could be imminent. I will be waiting for that cross to re-renter.
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