ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Pennant Under Resistance Zone.
ETHUSD Update: Consolidating into what appears to be a pennant formation just under the 306 resistance. In terms of structure this market is still bullish and the 350 area still serves as a good target to complete the broader Wave 3.
Pennant formations are just another consolidation where the trend lines converge on an angle. It is a little early to say, but this pennant looks more like a bearish one which makes sense just under this resistance zone. I do not give a lot of weight to smaller degree bearish chart formations in the face of a broad bullish trend, it is just worth mentioning.
The real bearish catalyst that I do place some weight on is the fact that BTC had a small retrace after making new highs and this market reacted to that, and as soon as BTC went back up to retest the high, this market does not react the same. I've been writing about this relative weakness, and my concern is if BTC goes into a broader Wave 4 (which I wrote about in my previous BTC report) then what's going to happen here? This makes me very cautious at the 290 to 315 area.
The key supports to continue to watch are the 279 and 263 levels. BTC aside, in terms of structure and wave count, as long as we stay above these levels, it is still reasonable to expect this market to complete one more leg up which makes the 350s a reasonable target.
A break of the 316 minor resistance is the signal to watch for, but in order to get the required follow through it needs a catalyst because the BTC highs are not enough. For me this is a tough trade to take because at this point 279 is the level I am using to define my risk. It's too high to take any meaningful position especially at the breakout point.
In summary, the current price consolidation is showing some minor bearish signs, but the major supports have not been compromised. Based on structure, this market is not weak, but in terms of relative strength, it's strength is questionable. These mixed signals make me very cautious especially just under the 306 resistance zone. There is potential for one more leg up into the 350s, it just needs a strong catalyst. I am watching the 279 and 263 levels for any retest, other wise I'm staying out.
Comments and questions welcome.
Pennant formations are just another consolidation where the trend lines converge on an angle. It is a little early to say, but this pennant looks more like a bearish one which makes sense just under this resistance zone. I do not give a lot of weight to smaller degree bearish chart formations in the face of a broad bullish trend, it is just worth mentioning.
The real bearish catalyst that I do place some weight on is the fact that BTC had a small retrace after making new highs and this market reacted to that, and as soon as BTC went back up to retest the high, this market does not react the same. I've been writing about this relative weakness, and my concern is if BTC goes into a broader Wave 4 (which I wrote about in my previous BTC report) then what's going to happen here? This makes me very cautious at the 290 to 315 area.
The key supports to continue to watch are the 279 and 263 levels. BTC aside, in terms of structure and wave count, as long as we stay above these levels, it is still reasonable to expect this market to complete one more leg up which makes the 350s a reasonable target.
A break of the 316 minor resistance is the signal to watch for, but in order to get the required follow through it needs a catalyst because the BTC highs are not enough. For me this is a tough trade to take because at this point 279 is the level I am using to define my risk. It's too high to take any meaningful position especially at the breakout point.
In summary, the current price consolidation is showing some minor bearish signs, but the major supports have not been compromised. Based on structure, this market is not weak, but in terms of relative strength, it's strength is questionable. These mixed signals make me very cautious especially just under the 306 resistance zone. There is potential for one more leg up into the 350s, it just needs a strong catalyst. I am watching the 279 and 263 levels for any retest, other wise I'm staying out.
Comments and questions welcome.
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