ETHUSD - price in an indecisive zone, where to go long?
Updated
TL:DR - Buying at $450 or $545 given the current mixed signals.
This is the ETHUSD chart with 1 day candles. I haven't made a chart for about a week because of work getting busy, let's see what's formed in this time.
On 6/14 I opened a long at $486. Price moved all the way up to $530 in one trading day but my target was $545-550 and as we didn't reach target I did not close any part of the trade. The next day price fell back to the 490s as the market shook off the news from the SEC and we have been consolidating around $490-$508 since then. I took this as a very bearish sign. I closed my long around $490 for a small gain. Those with iron fists have fared better than me as we see price has moved back to $517 at the time or writing today.
Now Ether is giving mixed signals that make opening trades risky. On the bullish side we have held the $496-$529 support zone and very quickly rejected a price dip to $450 on 6/13. We also remain in the symmetrical triangle formation going back several months and odds are good that the break out will be to the up side. Finally, we are nearing a double cross on the 5MA (green) and 10MA (yellow). It should be noted that the typical time frames for the Double Crossover metric are 5 and 20, 10 and 50, NOT 5 and 10. However, the chart clearly shows that a cross of the 5 MA and 10 MA has acted as good confirmation of new price trends going back to December with only occasional whipsaws (this chart only goes back to early April).
On the bearish side we have a short term downtrend line (dotted red) that price has been unable to break above for the last month. I also see an ascending triangle formation starting on 6/14 which generally is bearish signal for price. I did not put this on the chart because it is already fairly busy.
So what is my plan moving forward? I wish I had kept open the long from $486 because my decision would be easy: stay long. Fortunately I closed it for a small profit so it's not a big deal. The red dotted downtrend line has been acting as very strong overhead resistance and I am not about to open another long so close to it. For now I will stay in cash. That being the said the long term trend usually outweighs the short term trend and we are near the bottom of the symmetrical triangle which portends a bullish reversal in the next 2 weeks. If price drops to $450 I am buying. The last scenario I am looking for is a break of the red dotted trendline AND completion of the 5 MA and 10 MA double crossover. If this happens then I am buying, likely around $545.
***This is not investing advice. I am not an investing professional. Do not invest what you cannot afford to lose. All investors should seek guidance from licensed financial advisers and not random people on the internet.***
This is the ETHUSD chart with 1 day candles. I haven't made a chart for about a week because of work getting busy, let's see what's formed in this time.
On 6/14 I opened a long at $486. Price moved all the way up to $530 in one trading day but my target was $545-550 and as we didn't reach target I did not close any part of the trade. The next day price fell back to the 490s as the market shook off the news from the SEC and we have been consolidating around $490-$508 since then. I took this as a very bearish sign. I closed my long around $490 for a small gain. Those with iron fists have fared better than me as we see price has moved back to $517 at the time or writing today.
Now Ether is giving mixed signals that make opening trades risky. On the bullish side we have held the $496-$529 support zone and very quickly rejected a price dip to $450 on 6/13. We also remain in the symmetrical triangle formation going back several months and odds are good that the break out will be to the up side. Finally, we are nearing a double cross on the 5MA (green) and 10MA (yellow). It should be noted that the typical time frames for the Double Crossover metric are 5 and 20, 10 and 50, NOT 5 and 10. However, the chart clearly shows that a cross of the 5 MA and 10 MA has acted as good confirmation of new price trends going back to December with only occasional whipsaws (this chart only goes back to early April).
On the bearish side we have a short term downtrend line (dotted red) that price has been unable to break above for the last month. I also see an ascending triangle formation starting on 6/14 which generally is bearish signal for price. I did not put this on the chart because it is already fairly busy.
So what is my plan moving forward? I wish I had kept open the long from $486 because my decision would be easy: stay long. Fortunately I closed it for a small profit so it's not a big deal. The red dotted downtrend line has been acting as very strong overhead resistance and I am not about to open another long so close to it. For now I will stay in cash. That being the said the long term trend usually outweighs the short term trend and we are near the bottom of the symmetrical triangle which portends a bullish reversal in the next 2 weeks. If price drops to $450 I am buying. The last scenario I am looking for is a break of the red dotted trendline AND completion of the 5 MA and 10 MA double crossover. If this happens then I am buying, likely around $545.
***This is not investing advice. I am not an investing professional. Do not invest what you cannot afford to lose. All investors should seek guidance from licensed financial advisers and not random people on the internet.***
Trade active
Price has found resistance at the dotted red downtrend line. This why I did not open a long at $517 when I wrote the post initially. We have a very good chance of seeing price fall back to $450 based off of the resistance of the dotted red line and I didn't want to have to endure that pain.Price still has many bullish signals including the 5 MA and 10 MA cross as well as 2 closes above the 10 MA and finally the $450 support being strongly reactive. The only reason I am not long is because I went long a few weeks ago based off of similar criteria and the red dotted downtrend line rejected me harshly.
Still waiting for $545 or $450.
Comment
Dotted red trendline continues to reject every attempt at any significant bullish move. I should have said in my write up that I want to see a *close* above $545 and not just a few ticks at this price. Price has reached my target of $545 however without a close or staying power it's just noise so I have not opened any new longs.At the moment price action signals to me that we are likely headed for a retest of $450 unless the bulls can mount a real rally.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.