EthereumLong
ETHUSD Technical and Fundamental Analysis
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So far I have really enjoyed the experience here with the wonderful trading community, it is great to see the unbounded sharing of ideas by our fellow traders, so I thought of giving back as well.
Here are my two cents on ETHUSD:
H1 Timeframe shows a pretty obvious descending wedge, a (1) bullish flag with (2) Twice the formation of a bearish double top within the wedge, multiple times where it has touched the descending resistance line
Both times the formation of the double top has lead to a sell off to touch a major support level @ 198, thereby VALIDATING 198 AS A STRONG SUPPORT.
Technical indicators (1) MACD shows a greenish potential crossover to the positive side (2) Stoachastics show a 62 point, near the 80 buy zone
Short Term Opportunities to watch for:
- BREAKING OUT OF 209 would mean a retest of the nearest resistance level @ 212 and beyond that, targets for a BUY opportunity at TP1 @ 219 AND TP2 @ 226
- A SHARP REJECTION from the 208 descending resistance line would mean a SHORT opportunity to strong support line @ 198, breaking below this would bring us to the next 2 support lines @ 193 and @ 189
Long Term Fundamental Analysis:
Honestly I doubt ETHUSD could drop below 193 support which has been consistently validated from 25-29 April 2020. The long term outlook is currently BULLISH, with ETH 2.0 due for release in JULY 2020, which transits the current Proof of Work ethereum to a Proof-of-Stake Mechanism. This is very important to note, as instead of competing against each other to solve puzzles, users who accrue the most wealth, or stake, will be in charge of validating transactions in 2.0.
This definitely leads to a supply shock as users accrue ETH, possibly leading to a lock up of 30% of circulating ETH --> BUYING PRESSURE
Next, given a recent uptick in the number of addresses holding 32 ETH — the precise amount required for validators to stake in ETH 2.0 — demand, it seems, is already mounting. According to market intelligence firm Glassnode, there are currently over 116,351 Ethereum addresses containing 32 ETH or more — a figure up over 14% from last year.
My prediction: Price spike of ETHUSD is already partially priced in, with quite a number accumulating ETH for the staking in 2.0 release. The current ETH price flunctuations are likely short term position holders looking for quick buy and sell opportunities, with the majority holding for long. Once reaching the BTC sell-off post halving, some of the BTC holders may partially close LONG positions on BTC, taking profits, then putting more weight into ETH as the attention shifts to Ethereum 2.0 update. (Personally, I would only account maybe 30% ETH 70% BTC of my positions as I don't see ETH outperforming BTC in the long term, at least not by end 2020.)
Thank you for reading my two cents, feel free to comment your thoughts and feedback below!
Regards,
GolDRoger, a humble beginner trader
So far I have really enjoyed the experience here with the wonderful trading community, it is great to see the unbounded sharing of ideas by our fellow traders, so I thought of giving back as well.
Here are my two cents on ETHUSD:
H1 Timeframe shows a pretty obvious descending wedge, a (1) bullish flag with (2) Twice the formation of a bearish double top within the wedge, multiple times where it has touched the descending resistance line
Both times the formation of the double top has lead to a sell off to touch a major support level @ 198, thereby VALIDATING 198 AS A STRONG SUPPORT.
Technical indicators (1) MACD shows a greenish potential crossover to the positive side (2) Stoachastics show a 62 point, near the 80 buy zone
Short Term Opportunities to watch for:
- BREAKING OUT OF 209 would mean a retest of the nearest resistance level @ 212 and beyond that, targets for a BUY opportunity at TP1 @ 219 AND TP2 @ 226
- A SHARP REJECTION from the 208 descending resistance line would mean a SHORT opportunity to strong support line @ 198, breaking below this would bring us to the next 2 support lines @ 193 and @ 189
Long Term Fundamental Analysis:
Honestly I doubt ETHUSD could drop below 193 support which has been consistently validated from 25-29 April 2020. The long term outlook is currently BULLISH, with ETH 2.0 due for release in JULY 2020, which transits the current Proof of Work ethereum to a Proof-of-Stake Mechanism. This is very important to note, as instead of competing against each other to solve puzzles, users who accrue the most wealth, or stake, will be in charge of validating transactions in 2.0.
This definitely leads to a supply shock as users accrue ETH, possibly leading to a lock up of 30% of circulating ETH --> BUYING PRESSURE
Next, given a recent uptick in the number of addresses holding 32 ETH — the precise amount required for validators to stake in ETH 2.0 — demand, it seems, is already mounting. According to market intelligence firm Glassnode, there are currently over 116,351 Ethereum addresses containing 32 ETH or more — a figure up over 14% from last year.
My prediction: Price spike of ETHUSD is already partially priced in, with quite a number accumulating ETH for the staking in 2.0 release. The current ETH price flunctuations are likely short term position holders looking for quick buy and sell opportunities, with the majority holding for long. Once reaching the BTC sell-off post halving, some of the BTC holders may partially close LONG positions on BTC, taking profits, then putting more weight into ETH as the attention shifts to Ethereum 2.0 update. (Personally, I would only account maybe 30% ETH 70% BTC of my positions as I don't see ETH outperforming BTC in the long term, at least not by end 2020.)
Thank you for reading my two cents, feel free to comment your thoughts and feedback below!
Regards,
GolDRoger, a humble beginner trader
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