Ethereum's Not-So Tragic End
Updated
In May of 2022, I called the long term top for Ethereum and final distribution. I sold all my ETH above 3k after purchasing most of mine below $150. 
A year ago, I called ETH's rally from the sub-
1K lows to be the first major bear market rally. Since then, ETH has continuously failed to go higher. 
This past May, I showed how ETH could end up back below $500. Since then, I actually redrew my uptrend to be as generous as I can possibly make it, tapping only the tip of the big wick from the 2020 Covid panic.
Of course, there is always the possibility that I'm wrong, and Bitcoin / Ethereum will have another bull market. But I do sincerely believe the likelihood of this occurring to have significantly diminished. From a technical standpoint, now is perhaps a last-ditch buying opportunity if one disagrees with me.
What's happening RIGHT NOW:
To put it bluntly, Ethereum MUST bounce here. Right now, it is hanging by a thread off its long term uptrend. The top two cryptocurrencies have hardly kept up with inflation and have not proven to be safe long term investments. Interest in crypto continues to contract, as the broad consensus remains that it is a sham and not to be taken seriously. This makes crypto largely unmarketable as we move into the future.
ETH futures contracts are now being introduced, and roughly every single time a news event like this occurs, it results in a precipitous price decline. As I've noted numerous times, cryptocurrencies tend to drop in price on the back of good news because the good news does not make it inherently more useful (otherwise we'd see an influx of adoption in our everyday lives). Instead, the good news is related to trading, i.e. someone buys a lot of Bitcoin, or some financial instrument is now available.
On the technical side, ETH dumped straight to the next main support level down, once $1680 was broken. There was a strong initial buying reaction near the long term trendline.
Looking at the weekly chart, ETH manifested a golden cross only briefly, before the 50 week MA rolled back over to the downside, creating another death cross. The nail in the coffin for Ethereum would be a sustained drop back below the death cross. So far, it's holding. Again, bulls really need this level to hold.
After flatlining for roughly two years and breaking its own long term uptrend, it seems only a matter of time before the ETH/BTC ratio also begins to decline heavily. It's even holding up during this initial market drop, which can signify that real fear has not set in yet.
Why would it not be so tragic if ETH faded into obscurity? Outside of a few stablecoins (mostly used for buying cryptocurrencies anyway), there is no everyday usage. If it disappeared from this Earth, most people wouldn't bat an eyelash, or even realize it's gone.
As always, this represents only my opinion and is not financial advice! This is purely for entertainment and speculation.
-Victor Cobra
A year ago, I called ETH's rally from the sub-
1K lows to be the first major bear market rally. Since then, ETH has continuously failed to go higher. This past May, I showed how ETH could end up back below $500. Since then, I actually redrew my uptrend to be as generous as I can possibly make it, tapping only the tip of the big wick from the 2020 Covid panic.
Of course, there is always the possibility that I'm wrong, and Bitcoin / Ethereum will have another bull market. But I do sincerely believe the likelihood of this occurring to have significantly diminished. From a technical standpoint, now is perhaps a last-ditch buying opportunity if one disagrees with me.
What's happening RIGHT NOW:
To put it bluntly, Ethereum MUST bounce here. Right now, it is hanging by a thread off its long term uptrend. The top two cryptocurrencies have hardly kept up with inflation and have not proven to be safe long term investments. Interest in crypto continues to contract, as the broad consensus remains that it is a sham and not to be taken seriously. This makes crypto largely unmarketable as we move into the future.
ETH futures contracts are now being introduced, and roughly every single time a news event like this occurs, it results in a precipitous price decline. As I've noted numerous times, cryptocurrencies tend to drop in price on the back of good news because the good news does not make it inherently more useful (otherwise we'd see an influx of adoption in our everyday lives). Instead, the good news is related to trading, i.e. someone buys a lot of Bitcoin, or some financial instrument is now available.
On the technical side, ETH dumped straight to the next main support level down, once $1680 was broken. There was a strong initial buying reaction near the long term trendline.
Looking at the weekly chart, ETH manifested a golden cross only briefly, before the 50 week MA rolled back over to the downside, creating another death cross. The nail in the coffin for Ethereum would be a sustained drop back below the death cross. So far, it's holding. Again, bulls really need this level to hold.
After flatlining for roughly two years and breaking its own long term uptrend, it seems only a matter of time before the ETH/BTC ratio also begins to decline heavily. It's even holding up during this initial market drop, which can signify that real fear has not set in yet.
Why would it not be so tragic if ETH faded into obscurity? Outside of a few stablecoins (mostly used for buying cryptocurrencies anyway), there is no everyday usage. If it disappeared from this Earth, most people wouldn't bat an eyelash, or even realize it's gone.
As always, this represents only my opinion and is not financial advice! This is purely for entertainment and speculation.
-Victor Cobra
Note
Really coming down to the wire here for Ethereum - already a few reactions at the long term trendline. Note
It's interesting that each move below the trendline resulted in a bit of a flash crash, showing that people have set stops underneath it.Note
Note
For now, buyers have saved Ethereum and brought it back above the broken uptrend. The previous ATH of around $1400 should generally hold on any more significant dumps from here, and the uptrend should be maintained. Otherwise, ETH can easily break down to new lows. Let's see how much the ETF hype can buoy the market.
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