EthereumShort
Etherum's different potential W pattern outcomes
Updated
Introduction
Ethereum's price action has been concerning for some time now. Generally speaking the more something goes up the more of a cooling off period it needs and Ethereum has been over-performing a lot of the older crypto currencies for a while now. At the same time it has shown quite a bit of resilience compared to the Other coins and how their W patterns have played out.
W pattern Analysis
The top chart shows Ethereum, Monero, bitcoin and bitcoin all with a double bottom or W. We are being a bit loose with the terminology because strictly speaking in traditional markets a double top or a double bottom is suppose to have at most a 5% difference in the lows for a double bottom and 5% difference in the tops for a double top.
Ethereum and bitcoin both set higher highs with their W patterns but the structure of their Ws was different. We can see a clear amount of white space on the Ethereum chart between the green and blue zones and that space is not present in the bitcoin chart. Bitcoin had a much tighter consolidation pattern than all the other tokens.
Monero and Litecoin basically double topped in 2021 and have been consolidating ever since. They both returned to the green zone and found support there. Monero found continued support there while Litecoin bounces and is now being potentially rejected by the green zone. That is quite a bearish set of circumstances and Litecoin is one of the least attractive looking OG coins at the moment based on that weakness.
My bais and conclusion
My bias towards Ethereum is that it will return to the green zone. That is about a 80% drop from here. The chart below shows that the situation with the gaussian channel and keltern channel seems to be quite similar to the middle of the last bear market. the situation pairs well with the Log MACD situation.
For me, the main question is how much of this potential drawdown of the Ethereum ecosystem will drag down the broader crypto market. I suspect we will see lots of risk off and draw down in other crypto which will then pump due to people rotating out of the Ethereum ecosystem. while it trend sideways. There will be some pumps here and there while people take profits in eth pairings. For example, I see ETHBTC in a head and shoulders and I suspect that at each fib level people will be taking profit on ethbtc shorts and we will see bounces in ethusd when that happens. 30-40 percent bear market rallys happen all the time. I don't see the ETH ecosystem being a target of investment until it reaches the ethbtc target and then we will see strong hand come back in.
Ethereum's price action has been concerning for some time now. Generally speaking the more something goes up the more of a cooling off period it needs and Ethereum has been over-performing a lot of the older crypto currencies for a while now. At the same time it has shown quite a bit of resilience compared to the Other coins and how their W patterns have played out.
W pattern Analysis
The top chart shows Ethereum, Monero, bitcoin and bitcoin all with a double bottom or W. We are being a bit loose with the terminology because strictly speaking in traditional markets a double top or a double bottom is suppose to have at most a 5% difference in the lows for a double bottom and 5% difference in the tops for a double top.
Ethereum and bitcoin both set higher highs with their W patterns but the structure of their Ws was different. We can see a clear amount of white space on the Ethereum chart between the green and blue zones and that space is not present in the bitcoin chart. Bitcoin had a much tighter consolidation pattern than all the other tokens.
Monero and Litecoin basically double topped in 2021 and have been consolidating ever since. They both returned to the green zone and found support there. Monero found continued support there while Litecoin bounces and is now being potentially rejected by the green zone. That is quite a bearish set of circumstances and Litecoin is one of the least attractive looking OG coins at the moment based on that weakness.
My bais and conclusion
My bias towards Ethereum is that it will return to the green zone. That is about a 80% drop from here. The chart below shows that the situation with the gaussian channel and keltern channel seems to be quite similar to the middle of the last bear market. the situation pairs well with the Log MACD situation.
For me, the main question is how much of this potential drawdown of the Ethereum ecosystem will drag down the broader crypto market. I suspect we will see lots of risk off and draw down in other crypto which will then pump due to people rotating out of the Ethereum ecosystem. while it trend sideways. There will be some pumps here and there while people take profits in eth pairings. For example, I see ETHBTC in a head and shoulders and I suspect that at each fib level people will be taking profit on ethbtc shorts and we will see bounces in ethusd when that happens. 30-40 percent bear market rallys happen all the time. I don't see the ETH ecosystem being a target of investment until it reaches the ethbtc target and then we will see strong hand come back in.
Note
This is the beginning of an absolutely devastating breakdown of Eth. This is a two week chart and you can see that after consolidating at the support of the wedge price has broken down.All of the cost saving and efficacy improving protocols guaranteed the long term success of ETH with the adoption and volume trade but in the meanwhile price will be coming down.
A look at the chart shows that the previous thicket of price action lower than the W bottom is right at the -0.236 level at 45. But, before then we will probably find support around 365.
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