Ethereum, ETH Textbook Bearish Wedge
Updated
Sometimes the smallest signs can be the biggest/most important ones :) The attentive reader/follower should understand what i mean with this.
At the moment, as i updated earlier in my Bitcoin analysis, ETH is showing an almost perfect bearish wedge, almost doesn't get much better than this actually. But why then do i still not really trust it? :), because there have been more random moves lately and bearish patterns have failed several weeks now. Only bad thing is, wedge is reaching it's max. Normally wanna see wedges break before they reach the end of it. Preferably around 75/80% of it, further it goes, less reliable it becomes.
So think even, we have max 1 or 2 hours left. If we do not drop until then, we could just even pump again like we did since my previous analysis. Funding is ending in 1 min on Bitmex, maybe market is waiting for that. Target is only around the yellow circle, if the wedge gets confirmed, so nothing big even.
226 would be a decent confirmation of the wedge, not a big bounce allowed! Meaning if we drop and then retest wedge, has to be small retest and below the breakout level.
Well i did not manage in time to post it before funding ended so waited a bit more. No real reaction happened.
At the moment, it's moving sideways still in the the wedge, making the wedge quite unreliable at the moment. Which would suggest a move up would be more likely to see happen. Just be extra careful here, because i just don't like the way btc has been moving past week. For the day traders, there are always easy trades when market is volatile and moves more naturally (TA is works better then).To me this is not easy, maybe for other it is :), Everyone has their own style i think.
I do want to make a comment on few comments i read, people taking things out of context or simply not reading what i am saying. I know sometimes i might not always be clear, but i do try though. Things are in my head and i try to be as thorough as possible, but might not always be the case. But people who follow me, should do more research than only reading a few words. If you want to know what my view is on things, you need to know what i say now and what i said in a previous analysis and many times even older ones as well. For example, in both BTC and my ETH analysis, i placed an update 2/3 days ago that things seemed to be off. This was my update:
This is NOT the reaction I expected to see after seeing 187 break. Same thing for bitcoin, don’t know yet what to make of this
I explained more about this in my BTC analysis, so i assume you read that as well to be up to date on my thoughts. Later that day i post an analysis on ETH, where i had formed a view on things, so i posted it. This was my previous analysis:
We can see in the chart that the trend line was and still is real. It broke and price has been moving below it since. Looks like it is moving inside of a small channel/wedge now as well. During situations like this, usually means that the longer it takes to break down, the bigger the chances for the bulls become (So bulls chances improve as hours pass, right?). A back up plan the bulls have here is the blue line (Saying a back up plan, to me it means as the words says, back up, plan B in case things go wrong, in this scenario, means a drop from the channel, right?). Think it might be an important one for the bulls, even if (again, confirming the "if" we would drop) we would make a drop coming hours 0/12 hours or so.
So even if we would drop out of that small channel (which could still be seen as a retest), that blue zone could still be an important support level . So when seeing a drop , but price finding support there and starts to turn up, it could mean a small bear trap is being set and we could squeeze upwards. No i understand of course, a trader wants to go long, but when? In that channel, or wait for that small bear trap? Well, if trading would be that easy, everyone would make money. How about staying out, how about doing 50/50, 50% in the channel and 50% waiting for the blue line.
Financial markets are not for children, it's for mature people who try to make some money. Some people are able to do this at age 16 already, others never reach that maturity.
Think it might still be a bit confusing :), maybe this makes it easier, looking at it from the bears perspective. So i think we need to drop withing the coming 12 hours or so AND we do not want to see a strong bounce from the blue zone and/or line. Think most other scenario's are in favor of the bulls. I knew i was not 100% clear, so i even tried a third attempt from the bears perspective. To my knowledge, that means, that as long as we don't drop and stay steady, it's bullish. Why i gave the warning/update in the first place earlier that day.
Now i understand i might not be clear sometimes, it's not intentional. But ask for clarification, if i am around (which unfortunatly i am not so much past months due to personal circumstances), i am always more than willing to answer any questions. But i also think/know, that when people ask questions in my comment section, in a normal mature way, there are enough long term followers of mine (that understand me better than others) that are also more than willing to answer questions. Next to all of this, i am NOT giving trades here, i have not even given any real direct trades in my "paid" groups (which have been for free almost 2 years now). If i would have given a trade here and would have said wait for a drop to get in and go long, i might understand some disappointment for missing out. What i don't understand is, how some can turn my previous analysis in to a bearish one.
What many of you might have forgotten or might be new to the scene, around the ATH and the months after, there have been many top TA analysts here giving direct advice on what you should do. Showing with so much conviction that price would pump to the moon or crash to 3000 back then. It was just horrible, really a nightmare for so many. I remember this clearly because then i used to read analysis from others and comments to get a read on market sentiment. I even told a few of these TA guys to STOP doing it, because they hurt people with their way of writing like they are 100% sure it will happen as they say. We are only here to give tools, to give our view on things, that maybe a reader has ignored or missed. To give confirmation what you see is the same as a more experience TA person sees.
All of this, what i do here, is NOT giving trades. I have given trades in the past and in my groups, but then it's clear. Give an entry, stop loss and a target. I will do that again in the future, here or in my groups, but not now. Not while i am still under these personal circumstances. Until then, this is what you get.
But again, when things are not clear, when having question, please feel free to ask it. I always give extensive explanations to serious questions. I love to coach, share my knowledge and my experience with the traps in financial markets.
Previous analysis:
At the moment, as i updated earlier in my Bitcoin analysis, ETH is showing an almost perfect bearish wedge, almost doesn't get much better than this actually. But why then do i still not really trust it? :), because there have been more random moves lately and bearish patterns have failed several weeks now. Only bad thing is, wedge is reaching it's max. Normally wanna see wedges break before they reach the end of it. Preferably around 75/80% of it, further it goes, less reliable it becomes.
So think even, we have max 1 or 2 hours left. If we do not drop until then, we could just even pump again like we did since my previous analysis. Funding is ending in 1 min on Bitmex, maybe market is waiting for that. Target is only around the yellow circle, if the wedge gets confirmed, so nothing big even.
226 would be a decent confirmation of the wedge, not a big bounce allowed! Meaning if we drop and then retest wedge, has to be small retest and below the breakout level.
Well i did not manage in time to post it before funding ended so waited a bit more. No real reaction happened.
At the moment, it's moving sideways still in the the wedge, making the wedge quite unreliable at the moment. Which would suggest a move up would be more likely to see happen. Just be extra careful here, because i just don't like the way btc has been moving past week. For the day traders, there are always easy trades when market is volatile and moves more naturally (TA is works better then).To me this is not easy, maybe for other it is :), Everyone has their own style i think.
I do want to make a comment on few comments i read, people taking things out of context or simply not reading what i am saying. I know sometimes i might not always be clear, but i do try though. Things are in my head and i try to be as thorough as possible, but might not always be the case. But people who follow me, should do more research than only reading a few words. If you want to know what my view is on things, you need to know what i say now and what i said in a previous analysis and many times even older ones as well. For example, in both BTC and my ETH analysis, i placed an update 2/3 days ago that things seemed to be off. This was my update:
This is NOT the reaction I expected to see after seeing 187 break. Same thing for bitcoin, don’t know yet what to make of this
I explained more about this in my BTC analysis, so i assume you read that as well to be up to date on my thoughts. Later that day i post an analysis on ETH, where i had formed a view on things, so i posted it. This was my previous analysis:
We can see in the chart that the trend line was and still is real. It broke and price has been moving below it since. Looks like it is moving inside of a small channel/wedge now as well. During situations like this, usually means that the longer it takes to break down, the bigger the chances for the bulls become (So bulls chances improve as hours pass, right?). A back up plan the bulls have here is the blue line (Saying a back up plan, to me it means as the words says, back up, plan B in case things go wrong, in this scenario, means a drop from the channel, right?). Think it might be an important one for the bulls, even if (again, confirming the "if" we would drop) we would make a drop coming hours 0/12 hours or so.
So even if we would drop out of that small channel (which could still be seen as a retest), that blue zone could still be an important support level . So when seeing a drop , but price finding support there and starts to turn up, it could mean a small bear trap is being set and we could squeeze upwards. No i understand of course, a trader wants to go long, but when? In that channel, or wait for that small bear trap? Well, if trading would be that easy, everyone would make money. How about staying out, how about doing 50/50, 50% in the channel and 50% waiting for the blue line.
Financial markets are not for children, it's for mature people who try to make some money. Some people are able to do this at age 16 already, others never reach that maturity.
Think it might still be a bit confusing :), maybe this makes it easier, looking at it from the bears perspective. So i think we need to drop withing the coming 12 hours or so AND we do not want to see a strong bounce from the blue zone and/or line. Think most other scenario's are in favor of the bulls. I knew i was not 100% clear, so i even tried a third attempt from the bears perspective. To my knowledge, that means, that as long as we don't drop and stay steady, it's bullish. Why i gave the warning/update in the first place earlier that day.
Now i understand i might not be clear sometimes, it's not intentional. But ask for clarification, if i am around (which unfortunatly i am not so much past months due to personal circumstances), i am always more than willing to answer any questions. But i also think/know, that when people ask questions in my comment section, in a normal mature way, there are enough long term followers of mine (that understand me better than others) that are also more than willing to answer questions. Next to all of this, i am NOT giving trades here, i have not even given any real direct trades in my "paid" groups (which have been for free almost 2 years now). If i would have given a trade here and would have said wait for a drop to get in and go long, i might understand some disappointment for missing out. What i don't understand is, how some can turn my previous analysis in to a bearish one.
What many of you might have forgotten or might be new to the scene, around the ATH and the months after, there have been many top TA analysts here giving direct advice on what you should do. Showing with so much conviction that price would pump to the moon or crash to 3000 back then. It was just horrible, really a nightmare for so many. I remember this clearly because then i used to read analysis from others and comments to get a read on market sentiment. I even told a few of these TA guys to STOP doing it, because they hurt people with their way of writing like they are 100% sure it will happen as they say. We are only here to give tools, to give our view on things, that maybe a reader has ignored or missed. To give confirmation what you see is the same as a more experience TA person sees.
All of this, what i do here, is NOT giving trades. I have given trades in the past and in my groups, but then it's clear. Give an entry, stop loss and a target. I will do that again in the future, here or in my groups, but not now. Not while i am still under these personal circumstances. Until then, this is what you get.
But again, when things are not clear, when having question, please feel free to ask it. I always give extensive explanations to serious questions. I love to coach, share my knowledge and my experience with the traps in financial markets.
Previous analysis:
Note
As mentioned before, NOT A BIG BOUNCE ALLOWED if the wedge would break. So far it looks like a big bounce, but all because of Bitcoin though. Bounced up very quickly eventually dragging the rest with it. Normally the first red should be the max of the retest, in theory it can go up to the second one, but will make it more dangerous though. So the wedge is in play now, but far from comfortable because of Bitcoin!
Note
I still don't know how to place updates through my mobile phone here, but i have made contact with support to see if am an idiot or that something is wrong :). Anyway, this is what i updated a like 6 hours ago:
"Had a second attempt from the bears, eth has even be slightly weaker than bitcoin on low time frame, but bitcoin doesn’t let bulls take profit.
This second push up makes a failure of the wedge more likely now. Think only a good fast volume break of 222 would trigger the wedge target. If we continue to move sideways, another squeeze up is likely. So moving sideways for like another 12/24h, will make it very likely even."
Now nothing real has changed, but seeing a small sign of weakness. Bitocin made a small dump, bounced up as it has done many times lately, but at the moment no follow through though.
For ETH, drawn what looks like a curved shape. Now the shape is random, but the idea is that if it makes a higher low on the left, what i described above could be in play. So i would guess that when 224/223 breaks, 222 will also become likely to break, but it has been very tough for bearish views lately. So Think for the bearish wedge to become real, the green support around 222 needs to break with volume. Problem is though, think if it would break and would come close it, knowing this market, it doesn't give you a chance to get in there, because it then usually drops in a straight line.
So a tough one to trade if you have not already shorted the highs here. Can also see on the left, that so far those red resistance have rejected the bulls. Which is keeping the retest version alive still
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