Overall, I am bullish on ETH. I'm bullish on the whole crypto space this year, but I'm only going to be using other coins to accumulate ETH. I consider that I have missed the train on BTC, and I don't consider ETH to be poor man's Bitcoin, or silver to Bitcoin's gold, like some people have suggested. I'm no techno head (actually that's nonsense, I love techno) but I suspect that Ethereum will be a much stronger technology in the long run.
This is going to upset a lot of people, and that's not what I am setting out to do. If you have a strong emotional response to people commenting negatively on the fundimentals of Bitcoin, then perhaps you are leading from the emotional centres in the brain, rather than the executive ones. It might be worth asking yourself, if you were new to the scene, would you still be going for Bitcoin, over something else. How much of what you believe is what you want to believe as opposed to what you've researched to be true. How much of what you have researched to be true, sits with your own values?
I'm a huge hippocrit and if BTC addresses all of it's issues, yeah, I'll get back behind it. But BTC no longer sits with my core values of sustainability and renewal. There are other projects which are far closer aligned with my values, and those companies will be the ones which get my vote, and the ones which I want to be around the future.
Bitcoin's technology looks rickety and when we get to quantum computing, there's be a whole consensus which needs changing and I don't know whether the community will be able to manage that. Also, I don't sit the with climate science deniers who have been taken in by recommendation algorythms to appease their own concerns with human economic activity on climate change. I admire people with blind conviction who can articulate a narrative which supports their desired world view. Some, including authors of great works on cryptocurrency, have been rather arrogant on social media to rubbish climate science or underplay it's impact, and others citing BTC mining are from clean energy etc. To me, this is nonsense, irrational and emotional. I suspect this narrative comes from a place which does not want to acknowledge that Bitcoin's prof of work is a problem and is not sustainable, which comes from a place which seeks to ensure each individual's large HODLER position is tenable. Cognitive dissonance. But that's human nature.
Not wanting to seem ungrateful, we have a lot to thank bitcoin for, and it's not going anywhere yet. And at this stage, it's worth keeping an eye on BTC, because, it is after all, the current king of crypto.
The alts tend to follow BTC and there was an expected pullback in recent days of BTC, which brought the rest of the alts with it. (Those who follow Elliot wave theory, will not have been surprised to have seen the recent retracement).
So, that has left ETH consolidating in the 245-285 zone since about 11th Feb.
My expection is that we will break out of this channel soon, having completed wave 1 and 2 of a smaller frame 5 wave move (wuth the larger 5 wave pattern being wave 1 early part of last year and wave 2, later part of last year,..... seriously, if you don't understand Elliot waves, there are some excellent commentators on here and youtube who will explain it to you, and you'll have an epiphany)
BTC halving is incoming and the immediate effect of that is uncertain. I think that price will retrace from its recent high very shortly after the halving event, as people tend to buy on rumour and sell on news (plus the fundimental issues with network capacity as some minors are forced to capitulate and other things I don't honestly understand that well) before picking back up in a couple of months, when genuine decreased supply issues start to kick in. I expect ETH to follow, because where BTC goes, the rest tend to follow, for now.
However, ETH is still 81% lower than its ATH, whereas BTC, at the time of writing, is about 48-49%, so for me, the higher gains can be made in Ethereum, and not in Bitcoin. If you are building into a long ETH CFD position, it currently appears cheaper and probably easier to do that in Ethereum than in Bitcoin. That's before we even start talking about the solutions that ETH 2.0 has promised.
We have a nice triangle forming, which if it plays out, I suspect will see a nice breakout rally to the next consolidation zone, around 340-360. We recently on BTC have seen a support around it's 21 daily EMA which is a common pull back point in a bull market, which has held. I don't expect 10400 to be a problem for BTC this time around, and that is important, because a lot of traders of the Crypto market as a whole, watch BTC as a barometer. It's only a matter of time before we see BTC back in the news and when the public, who had largely bought into the media narrative that BTC was dead, they'll start to realise that money can be made inthe crypto space after all. However, they won't have the same emotional investment in Bitcoin as people who already have ammased huge wealth in BTC, and, being millenials, they will probably be concerned with climate and I suspect will look to other projects, such as Ethereum. What's better to a milenial than programmable money?
Happy trading and good luck.
Note
Rough Elliot wave count.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.