Short

Updated

ETHUSD Rising Rising Wedge

We clearly see a rising wedge developing on ETHUSD and it is my hope that we break down sooner as oppose to later. We are already grinding against support and the MACD certainly makes it look like we could break through any second. But, since this is a rising wedge we could easily see a pump up. If you have a stop between the two resistance lines and we do pump you have a fair chance of getting wicked out of your position, but it isn't guaranteed. Further, if we end up going longer through the rising wedge will end up seeing which line is really controlling.

The patterns on the other coins I like to use as my bell wethers for crypto don't look that great. BTCUSD especially looks like a sideways mess. I would be a lot happier if I saw more clear bearish formations on these coins But ETHUSD has been giving me the best patterns with strong percent returns on my shorts so hopefully what we are seeing here will represent the larger asset class.

Note

Ultimately the rising wedge pattern was correct and the dip down is exactly what you would expect from a rising wedge but I was hoping for more. Specifically I was hoping we would go below the lowest point of the wedge, and that didn't happen. That isn't too surprising, if we look at the last 3 weeks we see this whole area has been heavily contested terratory

My heart and what I see in the carts are telling me two different things because I was hoping for a better drop. As such I just followed my standard procedure and moved my stops down. The 2h chart is really optimistic for shorters as we see a potential bearish MACD cross and plenty of room to go down for the swing traders.

We still see a lot of indecision on the daily charts as ETHUSD moves sideways and the RSI is staying out of oversold conditions and the MACD has been poor at predicting when to enter and keep both a long or a short position. Good for day and swing traders and no one else it seems.

The one thing that does give me some more confidence that we will still be legging it down is that our pack leader, BTCUSD, set a new low the last 24 hours, compared to ETHUSD, which didn't break below the rising wedge.

Much like ETHUSD BTCUSD is in a heavily contested area with lots history of a lot of support and resistance. We already see bullish divergence settling in on the 1h timeframe but I am hoping that it won't matter until we see it more clearly on higher timeframes. The 1H hull MACD shows a weak upswing but it may be enough to give the bulls hope.

As I said, lots of indecision within this area so I am just moving my stop losses down to protect my gains. I am contemplating putting some shorts to trigger if we go below 425 on ETHUSD but I hesitate because I am worried about getting wicked in and then on for a ride if the price recovers. I am going to wait to see a new chart pattern develop after the spill of this rising wedge and watch the 2H charts to see how the bearish 2h MACD cross develops.

Not advice, so forth and so on, especially given the contested trading zone we are in.

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Perhaps the rising wedge was nested in a continuation triangle.

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Damn, that was quick. Triangle, support and resistance confirmed.

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This continuation triangle developed nicely, in fact, better than I expected

Going up to the two hour time frame I am still hoping to see the MACD make clean divergence from the signal line. The MACD situation looks similar on the 4h, teasing a bullish breakthrough or a drop as 425 was the resistance I predicted it would be. TIme to move those stops down again.

Trade closed: stop reached

Looks like the bulls are taking advantage of the oversold condition we were in and are taking this for a ride. I was stopped out of my short at 425 and I started this ride from 487, so that was a good swing trade.

Once gain, after a very good or bad trade it is always good to take a day or so to have your optimism or pessimism reset (and let the charts develop). I am not sure if it is worth flipping position yet, or if the indicators are just going to have some breathing room before the next leg down in a day or so.

Unless the charts give a really strong signal I will see you in a day or so.

Note

Double last though. We might see a repeat similar condition to what I boxed out here OR WE MAY NOT.

Note

This_Guhy

And I promise every Floridian that you will all be rich... because we're gonna print some more money! Why didn't anybody ever think of this before?

~Nathan Explosion

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This_Guhy

And I promise every Floridian that you will all be rich... because we're gonna print some more money! Why didn't anybody ever think of this before?

~Nathan Explosion

Also on: