Ethereum ETH, The 550 - 620 Range, Part 2
Updated
This analysis played out pretty well, with the drop (bit extended) inside that green box and bouncing pretty hard since. Now past half day it has been dropping again just like the rest of the market and also has reached a key point it seems. ETH should hold 550/547 zone from now on, because then the previous analysis with the arguments i gave still make sense.
As you can see on the right, it seems that curved line was real, because yesterdays bounce got rejected from that line again. Which makes it easy to say that as long as it moves below it, it shows bears are in control. Which also says that the first big level bulls need to break is that same line, which is around 570 now. The 570 is i think similar to the 18.500/600 for Bitcoin.
So on the downside, 447/450, below that level the only support zone i see is around 500/510. Actually, assuming the channel is real, it could give support around 525ish as well. On the upside its a harder road, with the first resistance around 560 and then the important curved line resistance around 570. The 580 seems to be a level as well, but think the 590/600 zone might be the biggest resistance, which stands in the way for news highs this year for ETH.
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Previous analysis:
As you can see on the right, it seems that curved line was real, because yesterdays bounce got rejected from that line again. Which makes it easy to say that as long as it moves below it, it shows bears are in control. Which also says that the first big level bulls need to break is that same line, which is around 570 now. The 570 is i think similar to the 18.500/600 for Bitcoin.
So on the downside, 447/450, below that level the only support zone i see is around 500/510. Actually, assuming the channel is real, it could give support around 525ish as well. On the upside its a harder road, with the first resistance around 560 and then the important curved line resistance around 570. The 580 seems to be a level as well, but think the 590/600 zone might be the biggest resistance, which stands in the way for news highs this year for ETH.
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Previous analysis:
Note
After my I posted my analysis, as we can see in the chart below now, ETH attacked that curved blue line but once again it go pushed back. More importantly, the 550/547 zone broke and ETH dumped just like the rest of the market. Once again, it bounced up a bit from the 335/340 support zone AND once again it is bumping against that curved shape. Now as mentioned in the previous analysis, curved shapes are always somewhat subjective, but i do believe this one is real. Simply because it has become almost too clear. Usually these curved shapes eventually break, just can't predict when. We could simply break 535 and dump even more before even thinking of breaking the blue line, that i don't know at this point, since the market (and Bitcoin) have been a bit weaker than i thought.
Usually there are 3 versions for a curved shape:
-Simply break it and pump big.
-Break it, rally a bit and retest before the big pump (blue line), Important here is, has to go sideways for a limited period of time, would say like max 1 day.
-Break it, doing weak attempts to break up but eventually go sideways for a while (so longer than the 1 day ish). Then if the breakout fails, should see a big dump happen.
Short term would say, 547/6 should hold from now on, similar to 17900/850 for Bitcoin.
Note
New ETH analysis:
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