Post-Bubble Consistency Arises; Bounce Stability - 2019 PT $1000
Ethereum for itself was doing well before it got swept up in the EOY madness/manipulation/drama, whatever you want to call it. BTC and ETH are different and therefore SHOULD NOT be correlated to each other strongly, nor should they share the same fate. While BTC narrowly dodged the bubble crash bullet, ETH took the hit and collapsed right back to where it was slowly building itself up. This is probably one of the cleanest and most direct representations of the Greater Fools Theory playing out because ETH itself was never as notorious as BTC because of how it's fundamentally designed.
At the beginning of the year, you can see ETH take a nice, balanced growth trajectory before the news cycle started picking up crypto markets and before ETH began to differentiate itself as the #2 to BTC. While it rose and fell back, it formed a very nice rising wedge pattern that consistently bounced off the average mean of a steady growth trajectory based on the behavior prior to then. At the end of the wedge, the stock popped up and over its next level of resistance and lived a nice, healthy little life there showing stability.
Near the end of the year, the crypto mania was streaming through news and homes apparently (if you believe the Thanksgiving media hype) and just like all other coins, it began its ascent higher into bubble territory before peaking and ultimately collapsing down and down. I've drawn what appear to be some mild resistance lines that pair with the jumps ETH was making early on. This small ladder is at least a foundation for when ETH actually starts to make a RATIONAL path back upwards. The crash down had its share of bull traps before fiercely plunging back down under the mean trajectory, the channel and the resistance line. I mean, the thing genuinely crashed. Tell someone you can find ETH for $350 today and you'd be a saint. Those days are most likely gone.
With crash over, a return to the Mean Trajectory was warranted, and it came steadily before the hop back up over the resistance line and back into the channel occurred. The price cured there for a moment before market volume pushed it higher and past the next resistance line . You know, the NORMAL one that ETH was heading towards after the wedge. All this should build confidence in ETH since it popped its bubble, returned to the mean and the market behavior pushed it forward on a stable trajectory.
With continuous volume, ETH made its way back up along with other cryptomarket momentum. Thankfully, it didn't break its channel, hit a peak (where traders should have sold) and came back down to rest at the bottom of its channel. This is volatility, but managed volatility. The current price and levels show holding over the Mean Trajectory and volume has tapered off some, but not really dropped. I believe this to be a great entry point for someone looking to start a Long position in ETH, as we've seen how ETH outside of bubble conditions consistently performs and bounces off its trend lines.
The small circle within the Fib Retracement is a point of accumulation. Once the price starts to rise outside of those two levels, expect it to climb rapidly with sustained volume and back to a reasonable $700 level that sits conservatively along the middle of the long term channel (Golden Cross forming as well). Looking ahead, there's a final circle area that represents what I call the "Money Zone" where some craziness can take place. $1000 is a psychological level, so if the price begins breaking the upper trend line there, expect some heavy volume and action that will lead to some extreme swings potentially up to $1100. Otherwise, with midterms on the horizon and people trying to wrap their heads around the political future, crypocurrency will no doubt be in the spotlight. Even with more regulation coming around and probably being announced, the awareness and attention should build healthy hype and volume for trading.
I take a conservative, LONG position w/ a $1000 PT.
At the beginning of the year, you can see ETH take a nice, balanced growth trajectory before the news cycle started picking up crypto markets and before ETH began to differentiate itself as the #2 to BTC. While it rose and fell back, it formed a very nice rising wedge pattern that consistently bounced off the average mean of a steady growth trajectory based on the behavior prior to then. At the end of the wedge, the stock popped up and over its next level of resistance and lived a nice, healthy little life there showing stability.
Near the end of the year, the crypto mania was streaming through news and homes apparently (if you believe the Thanksgiving media hype) and just like all other coins, it began its ascent higher into bubble territory before peaking and ultimately collapsing down and down. I've drawn what appear to be some mild resistance lines that pair with the jumps ETH was making early on. This small ladder is at least a foundation for when ETH actually starts to make a RATIONAL path back upwards. The crash down had its share of bull traps before fiercely plunging back down under the mean trajectory, the channel and the resistance line. I mean, the thing genuinely crashed. Tell someone you can find ETH for $350 today and you'd be a saint. Those days are most likely gone.
With crash over, a return to the Mean Trajectory was warranted, and it came steadily before the hop back up over the resistance line and back into the channel occurred. The price cured there for a moment before market volume pushed it higher and past the next resistance line . You know, the NORMAL one that ETH was heading towards after the wedge. All this should build confidence in ETH since it popped its bubble, returned to the mean and the market behavior pushed it forward on a stable trajectory.
With continuous volume, ETH made its way back up along with other cryptomarket momentum. Thankfully, it didn't break its channel, hit a peak (where traders should have sold) and came back down to rest at the bottom of its channel. This is volatility, but managed volatility. The current price and levels show holding over the Mean Trajectory and volume has tapered off some, but not really dropped. I believe this to be a great entry point for someone looking to start a Long position in ETH, as we've seen how ETH outside of bubble conditions consistently performs and bounces off its trend lines.
The small circle within the Fib Retracement is a point of accumulation. Once the price starts to rise outside of those two levels, expect it to climb rapidly with sustained volume and back to a reasonable $700 level that sits conservatively along the middle of the long term channel (Golden Cross forming as well). Looking ahead, there's a final circle area that represents what I call the "Money Zone" where some craziness can take place. $1000 is a psychological level, so if the price begins breaking the upper trend line there, expect some heavy volume and action that will lead to some extreme swings potentially up to $1100. Otherwise, with midterms on the horizon and people trying to wrap their heads around the political future, crypocurrency will no doubt be in the spotlight. Even with more regulation coming around and probably being announced, the awareness and attention should build healthy hype and volume for trading.
I take a conservative, LONG position w/ a $1000 PT.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.