ETH Daily TA Cautiously Bullish
ETHUSD Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 85% ETH, 15% Cash. *Cryptos, Equities, Commodities (aside from Oil) and Futures are all up; while DXY, Oil (due to recent increases in global output capacity) and Treasuries are all down. There's been a clear shift in market sentiment after the Fed raised another 75bps and Powell gave a couple of hardly dovish hints in conjunction with a full-court press by the White House in shutting down fears of a recession. SEC Chair Gary Gensler said today that the SEC is ramping up moves to get crypto exchanges registered with the SEC. Ethereum devs yesterday confirmed that the Merge is on schedule and is expected to launch on Goerli, the final testnet before launch on Mainnet, on ~August 11th; the estimated date for launch on Mainnet is 09/11/22. AMZN and AAPL both beat on top and bottom lines today (earnings and revenue) sending their shares higher after-hours; this earnings beat can largely be credited to inflation pushing up prices. Overall, things are bullish in the short-term unless economic data tomorrow surprises significantly. Economic data tomorrow: Employment Cost Index (ECI) (a number Fed Chair JPow said to look out for in yesterday's FOMC press conference) reports tomorrow (07/29) at 830am EST; PCE numbers (the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation in Personal Income and Outlays report) report tomorrow at 830am EST; University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey (which gives a more detailed look into personal finances) reports tomorrow (07/29) at 10am EST. Things to note about the aforementioned economic data: ECI is reported quarterly so this number is expected to be down from where it was three months ago, this may be viewed as bearish in the short term because it would signal that the job market is beginning to slow down which would renew fears of a recession; PCE numbers also lag by about 3 weeks but are still central to the Fed's assessment of the inflation situation, so if the Index is higher/lower this would be bearish/bullish; as for Consumer Sentiment it will likely reflect some kind of relief from OPEC and the USA raising oil output caps but will overall show that the consumer is still becoming defensive toward inflation.* Price is currently breaking above $1711 minor resistance and will attempt to close above it in today and tomorrow's sessions on its way to retesting $1941 resistance for the first time since 06/06/22. Volume is Moderate (high) and currently on track to favor buyers for three consecutive sessions, this is bullish considering the Morning Doji Star pattern that Price completed by printing a Bullish Engulfing candle in yesterday's session. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $1358, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 69 as it aims to formally retest the 50/50 uptrend line from November 2018 at 71; if it breaks through that then the next resistance is at 77. Stochastic crossed over bullish at 67 in today's session and is currently trending up at 75, the next resistance is at 81. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at 103 as it aims to retest the upper trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at 140; due to the proximity of 155 resistance it may retest that level as well. ADX is currently completing a soft trough and is beginning to trend up slightly at 30 as Price is pushing higher, this is bullish. If Price is able to rip through $1711 minor resistance, the next likely target is a retest of $1941 resistance. However, if Price is rejected at $1711 minor resistance then it will likely find a bit of support at ~$1550 before potentially retesting $1427 support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $1641.
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