Game Time

Updated

After getting epically rekt thinking ETH was about to get totally rekt it completed it's W bottom reversal and launched staight into the top of the current downward channel and krept its way back into its upward long trend channel.

It's currently facing resistance at the:
- $482 fib
- $504 at the 500 MA.
- $480 downtrend top.

Support at:

- $450 (untested)
- $425 - $430 (MA's + FIB)

No giant sell off leads me to think it'll be able to consolidate some at the top and maybe even push further.

I want to see it sit above $500 before I look at any longs.

- MACD is still extremely bullish.
- RSI is oversold.

I still think we're in for a longer correction but I've been wrong about this last uptrend, so may just be favouring my bearish bias..

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Bulls continuing the rally and raised up a bull flag here with a target of $501. Going to be tough penetrating all our resistances but the bulls got control of the ball even though it's in there own zone.

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Zooming out to the weekly we see that there's still a giant bear flag in play. The target of the flag is -$33 which is impossible, but if it were to come to fruition i'd expect a stop at a support in the low $300's. (Original bear flag idea that just got wiped from the daily had a target of $330, but the $360 support proved resilient.

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Based on the current indicators and momentum I'd *guess* we'll continue to go up.

Missing from this impulse has been the follow through you'd expect. So why up?
Because my emotional reaction right now is down, and I'd imagine that would be true for most investors who think they can outsmart the market. (we're not as unique as we like to think).

For whales and bears the lack of FOMO buying and chasing this price pushing it further up (giving them returns on their pump), means they may still have some work to do.

Bearish whales only win if and when the population buys.

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- No giant red (blue) bar heading down.
- Closing 1H above Downtrend support.
- Closing 1H above a Fib.

Looks like bulls have taken control of the party.

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The evidence in front of us:

- Price has gone up 10% in one day, (40% - in the last week)
- We've closed outside of our down trend channel.
- Every other trader is now bull-ish and picking out Lambo's and egging D4rk and Poop as being frauds who can't get a single TA right.

But yet here I am unconvinced that we're out of the woods. where is the follow up volume? Where is the blood right before and the strong oomf. Maybe it's not necessary this time around and we'll just go sideways now after a few more quick jumps.

Very likely that I've been a bear for the last while and have suffered my share of bull traps, but I'm unable to see it as anything else right now. RSI is exhausted on the 4 hour so we'll probably see our correction waves / retracement's soon. But something just doesn't feel right.

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Something to keep an eye on (Ascending Wedge):

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Not even sure this means anything:

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I'd be amiss not to mention the obvious though:

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The volume I had been complaining about is starting to return.

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Bulls Vs Bears

When bears sell they eventually buy their assets back for lower, become bulls in driving the market up, and when it seems right sell again and buy back lower.

The battle between bulls and bears is pretty duplicitous in that frame.

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I'm not a fan of looking for patterns on short TF's but spotted on the 15 & 30m:

H&S with a target of $487

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An Even Bigger H&S now visible with the potential to hit $438. Keep in mind there's the downtrend support at 475 range which will now act as support so trade with care, but if we enter back in we maybe stuck for a while.

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So if it hasn't hit yet I'm definitely bearish. But this current retracement isn't or wasn't unexpected. Even in a bull market there are dips and that's part of regular market activity.

Zooming out we still have this wedge and as is normal for wedge break outs it's expected that we touch the the top of it confirming it as a support before moving on up.

Do I think we bounce? No. But again bearish bias. But its worth noting that its there.

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The smart move right now is to not make one.

The Bulls are gassed, and the bears are bruised. We're entering the 10th round of a 12 round fight. The bears dominated the first 7. The Bulls responding with a strong rally in the 8th and left hook that rattled the bears. The bears managed to hold off a fury and even deliver a swift jab on the chin of the Bulls.

We're now into a war of attrition in these late rounds so be cautious about opening any new bets.

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For what its worth the H&S broke down and we hit a low of 484, but quickly rallied back to 500.

Forming the right shoulder on the larger TF.

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(H&S on the 15TF)

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Looks like the H&S failed, but bulls look to be ready to run..

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seems like there's some in-fighting inside of the bull-flag with a stalled breakout.

H&S on the 15min with potential towards $489.

One thing to note though is Larger TF > Smaller TF, so don't think this move will realize its full potential, but if it does breakdown could be a good position to buy in.

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Seems like the H&S attempted a break down but was stopped at the 100 MA on the 5m or the 20 MA on the 30m.

Either way both are tiny TF's so just keeping an eye on these charts to see which way the market may move.

Larger TF > Smaller.

What this does tell me though is to invalidate the H&S we want a price higher than $516. (Right shoulder peek).

We want to see a some bars close above the 0.328 Fib (512.95) and it tested as support.

tldr; wait till price action above $516 before going long or wait for a breakdown below the 100 MA on the 5m before thinking about shorting.

ss44

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