EthereumLong
1D log scale, ETH big picture. Up and away.
Updated
The fundamentals of ETH are not in question, in fact, everything we talk about amongst ourselves (ETHeads, ETHTraders, you know who you are) is simmering under the surface. Sometimes we take for granted just how small and isolated our chosen world really is, in comparison to the rest of the financial awareness of the general public. A good exercise is to go out and ask people you know, then people on the street if they know what 
BTC is. Then ask them if they know about ETH.
I'm betting that the response from your friends and family will be a bit stronger, since they may have heard you talk about it. Keep in mind that these are the people you surround yourself with, so the things you are interested in may find their way into their conversations. The people on the street are another story though. I recently did this informal survey, and I was shocked. Exactly ZERO people I spoke to knew what Ethereum is. A little under 5% knew whatBTC is, and most of them had almost no real knowledge of BTC beyond the name and that "...It's gotten real high, I mean, expensive right?"
Pulling back in scope, check out this wave analysis. I don't know if anyone else has said it publicly yet, but what we've been seeing since July is the 4th wave chop, an ABCDE correction, and we're gearing up to finish it out with a small dip (in comparison to the whole) back down towards the $220 range, which will see the start of the next leg up on our glorious ascent of the 5th wave! All hyperbole aside, I really think that $1000 is possible by the end of the year. I'm extremely interested to see what happens over the coming months.
I welcome discussion and critique of my analysis. More knowledge! Less drama!
ETH are not in question, in fact, everything we talk about amongst ourselves (ETHeads, ETHTraders, you know who you are) is simmering under the surface. Sometimes we take for granted just how small and isolated our chosen world really is, in comparison to the rest of the financial awareness of the general public. A good exercise is to go out and ask people you know, then people on the street if they know what BTC is. Then ask them if they know about ETH.I'm betting that the response from your friends and family will be a bit stronger, since they may have heard you talk about it. Keep in mind that these are the people you surround yourself with, so the things you are interested in may find their way into their conversations. The people on the street are another story though. I recently did this informal survey, and I was shocked. Exactly ZERO people I spoke to knew what Ethereum is. A little under 5% knew what
BTC is, and most of them had almost no real knowledge of BTC beyond the name and that "...It's gotten real high, I mean, expensive right?"Pulling back in scope, check out this wave analysis. I don't know if anyone else has said it publicly yet, but what we've been seeing since July is the 4th wave chop, an ABCDE correction, and we're gearing up to finish it out with a small dip (in comparison to the whole) back down towards the $220 range, which will see the start of the next leg up on our glorious ascent of the 5th wave! All hyperbole aside, I really think that $1000 is possible by the end of the year. I'm extremely interested to see what happens over the coming months.
I welcome discussion and critique of my analysis. More knowledge! Less drama!
Note
Looking like Wednesday will be the day to solidify this trend. ETH wants to bounce, because of the believers, but shook noobs in the BTC market pulling their fiat after FOMOing are taking liquidity with them. They're running scared after the old-timers are taking profits from the ATH.Be ready for a retrace BTC to the 5100 level, and if that breaks, into the 4600 zone. This will drag ETH down alongside it to the 220 long-term support zone that I previously mentioned.
Note
Interesting development after the BTC Gold fork last night. I'm flat on ETH as I don't think the pop was enough to break the current downtrend, and I'm still looking for a bounce around the $220 level.I was questioned about my timeline on ETHTrader, so I'll post a zoomed in chart for you all, that clearly shows I'm thinking we may reach these levels in 1-2 weeks, which would coincide with the approach of the BTC 2x fork.
To be clear, I do still believe that the fundamentals of Ethereum will lead to it's wider adoption and higher valuation by the end of this year, possibly January of next if December is a slow month due to the holidays.
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Quick update here:My ABCDE was correct, but I've updated my thinking on the overall wave count, and believe that it's highly likely were in the 3RD WAVE overall. I've been under this impression for a little while now, and am just now getting around to updating my public stance.
I missed the
1K mark on this chart by 1 day. Not too shabby though. If ETH targets 1K again, and breaks the major resistance there, we could possibly see $1100-1200 on FOMO, but I would be prepared for the more likely scenario of entering the overall 4th, as I believe this is the 5th of the 3rd finishing out.If that happens, I would look to the $700-736 levels as likely support, but $633 levels are not out of the question!
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This is my current outlook. Keep in mind that 5th wave is simply a placeholder for now, as it's impossible to know solid targets for a 5th wave until the true depth of the 4th is in. I will continue to watch as this develops, but the 5th of the 3rd is highly unstable, as a rule. Following the 4th, the 5th wave is when the public begins awakening to the possibility of $3000 Ether. Mass adoption, ERC20 ICO product debuts, Internet 3.0 and all that comes with ETH market dominance begin to be bandied about on CNBC and Fast Money, Cramer and the Motley Fool begin going nuts about it. Watch and see.
As always, trade at your own risk. This is not investment advice, and your money is your own. Your investment choices are your own.
Happy trading!
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