ETH low is probably in. Up we go
Updated
Greetings traders!
This is my very first analysis, so feel free to roast me in the comment section :)
Ethereum has possibly hit a macro low (and it would be a higher low) and it's ready to go up.
Simple analysis based on historical behavior, where ETH has always respected an upward parallel channel from bear market low until bull market top, and breaking down that channel indicated in the past the end of the bull cycle.
Some factors to consider:
- ETH touched the bottom of the rising channel in the recent flash crash on August 5th at around $2100 and produced a decent bounce. A retest of this level is very possible.
- This is a strong horizontal support level, marking the yearly open and the breakout from 2023 accumulation.
- Additional support is also offered by the 200 week MA sitting around $2200.
- ETH seems to have bottomed against BTC, showing massive bullish divergence at an important horizontal level of support. High chances of reversal soon.
- A break below the rising channel would indicate extreme weakness for Ethereum, and possibly a failed bull cycle.. I personally think this is very unlikely. Nevertheless, let's pay attention to that level.
Good luck everyone!
This is my very first analysis, so feel free to roast me in the comment section :)
Ethereum has possibly hit a macro low (and it would be a higher low) and it's ready to go up.
Simple analysis based on historical behavior, where ETH has always respected an upward parallel channel from bear market low until bull market top, and breaking down that channel indicated in the past the end of the bull cycle.
Some factors to consider:
- ETH touched the bottom of the rising channel in the recent flash crash on August 5th at around $2100 and produced a decent bounce. A retest of this level is very possible.
- This is a strong horizontal support level, marking the yearly open and the breakout from 2023 accumulation.
- Additional support is also offered by the 200 week MA sitting around $2200.
- ETH seems to have bottomed against BTC, showing massive bullish divergence at an important horizontal level of support. High chances of reversal soon.
- A break below the rising channel would indicate extreme weakness for Ethereum, and possibly a failed bull cycle.. I personally think this is very unlikely. Nevertheless, let's pay attention to that level.
Good luck everyone!
Trade active
As anticipated, ETH has retested the August 5th low, filling the long wick. This area is providing support and there will probably be a bounce from here. The Daily RSI has printed a bullish divergence.
This level is crucial, ETH needs to close this week above 200 week moving average ($2288).
Trade active
ETH has produced a beautiful bounce off the bottom of the bull run channel after re-testing the lows and the 200 week moving average.
There's people still calling for a crash to 1.5k or even below 1k...
These people are clueless, simply because until ETH holds this rising trend, the only way is up.
As mentioned on the main post, only a break below the rising channel would hint a bearish scenario. So there's no need to jump the gun. Always wait for confirmation!
Note
ETH is fighting tooth and nail to stay afloat. Rejected by weekly 50MA, it's now back to the lower range of the rising channel.
A weekly break below the channel will be my personal invalidation point for a bull case.
Until then, I remain optimistic that ETH will survive and rise again with BTC.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.