The pushing narrative: Where are we and where are we going.
Updated
ETH has had alot of looked over developments happening in the past year. Its not a possibility that it makes a resurgence, it will, but sometimes I wonder if I'll be reminiscing from my rocker when some foolish kids get up to it again.
On the short term, the price is at a fully excited and volatile state, its obviously be in a small range consolidating above a fully broken channel, you can note my awesome buy targets, but know that I missed them. I was fully ready to see ETH rip out to 2000 but was left widely disappointed. 1800 has been a 'critical benchmark' in my analysis since we took off. But due to macro events I am unsure how to interpret the new momenta (check weekly PAR).
Plainly, I think we might start ranging. Thats what I would like to see on a macro stance. But as we're all aware this is crypto, its up or dump.
However, if there is a break through 1800, and it seems to be looking more and more plausible with the alternating engulfing candles all well outside the channel. It could be very very fast, potentiating a climb to the lower end of 2300, that is, if there is a big interest in non-conventional risk assets. Enthusiasm like the first drive of the rally could drive the daily RSI up to ATH and we could see 2500 before EOM. Why would that happen? The global economy could hang on while the US market collapses. Duelly the social media narrative would have to drive you and everyone you know to buy bitcoin's nerdy brother. Those are some big dreams.
The recent news has been skewed into narrative that seem somewhat malicious, and if you are only getting news and opinion from one place or direction, it sure to service that place or direction. I think the FOMC came off in a way that was meant not to declare narratives, and its becoming obvious that there are alot of outside forces acting on the market. The message I got was pretty much nil and we are in an experiment until next meeting.
Was ETH a good buy at 1300? yes.
Will ETH be a good buy at 2300? Maybe in 2025.
If you want to buy ETH in 2023 I think there is a good chance we see a return to 1500 if not 1300. Why? Because I don't believe that the risk is that attractive. I have been watching ETH market dominance drop steadily aside a spike today, given another run there is alot of profit to be made in a race with BTC if it took on.
A summary of what I see in the charts:
Daily
Ceiling on top of broken structure- Bullish and bearish, possibly a huge boom coming, likely a lot of whale play. (buy around 1750/SL around 1700)
Fibonacci convergence around 2000- good indicator this is the goal for the next push
the sequential engulfing candles - indicates strength for going to 2200
climbing volume- strength
However, if the excitement and realization to financial reality dawn; 1800 could reject to 1630, 1450. Less likely because it seems everyone in the market is ready to celebrate something.
MACD could peak and we would see a descending channel in RSI. The momentum histogram lends the possibility that these impulses were novel, and they are we are seeing the panic trading from a few days ago play out.
Weekly
bullish pinbar/hammer
Note the huge accumulation divergence, IYKYK
RSI bull divergence for a few weeks now
volume RSI showing we are nowhere near the participation we saw in the last years, so there is both a lack and void of interest
Enjoy
On the short term, the price is at a fully excited and volatile state, its obviously be in a small range consolidating above a fully broken channel, you can note my awesome buy targets, but know that I missed them. I was fully ready to see ETH rip out to 2000 but was left widely disappointed. 1800 has been a 'critical benchmark' in my analysis since we took off. But due to macro events I am unsure how to interpret the new momenta (check weekly PAR).
Plainly, I think we might start ranging. Thats what I would like to see on a macro stance. But as we're all aware this is crypto, its up or dump.
However, if there is a break through 1800, and it seems to be looking more and more plausible with the alternating engulfing candles all well outside the channel. It could be very very fast, potentiating a climb to the lower end of 2300, that is, if there is a big interest in non-conventional risk assets. Enthusiasm like the first drive of the rally could drive the daily RSI up to ATH and we could see 2500 before EOM. Why would that happen? The global economy could hang on while the US market collapses. Duelly the social media narrative would have to drive you and everyone you know to buy bitcoin's nerdy brother. Those are some big dreams.
The recent news has been skewed into narrative that seem somewhat malicious, and if you are only getting news and opinion from one place or direction, it sure to service that place or direction. I think the FOMC came off in a way that was meant not to declare narratives, and its becoming obvious that there are alot of outside forces acting on the market. The message I got was pretty much nil and we are in an experiment until next meeting.
Was ETH a good buy at 1300? yes.
Will ETH be a good buy at 2300? Maybe in 2025.
If you want to buy ETH in 2023 I think there is a good chance we see a return to 1500 if not 1300. Why? Because I don't believe that the risk is that attractive. I have been watching ETH market dominance drop steadily aside a spike today, given another run there is alot of profit to be made in a race with BTC if it took on.
A summary of what I see in the charts:
Daily
Ceiling on top of broken structure- Bullish and bearish, possibly a huge boom coming, likely a lot of whale play. (buy around 1750/SL around 1700)
Fibonacci convergence around 2000- good indicator this is the goal for the next push
the sequential engulfing candles - indicates strength for going to 2200
climbing volume- strength
However, if the excitement and realization to financial reality dawn; 1800 could reject to 1630, 1450. Less likely because it seems everyone in the market is ready to celebrate something.
MACD could peak and we would see a descending channel in RSI. The momentum histogram lends the possibility that these impulses were novel, and they are we are seeing the panic trading from a few days ago play out.
Weekly
bullish pinbar/hammer
Note the huge accumulation divergence, IYKYK
RSI bull divergence for a few weeks now
volume RSI showing we are nowhere near the participation we saw in the last years, so there is both a lack and void of interest
Enjoy
Note
Note
Looking to retest the wedge at 1600, continuing weekly inside barNote
I was expecting a correction, but the momentum looks to be abnormal for my take in the markets.
The positioning now insists a run towards 2200, 2400; depending on how the buy pressure holds. Might be from the acc/dist divergence.
Note
This will probably be my last update on this idea, the price action was variable, it seems like there is some liquidity play going on behind the scenes, trading on and off between ETH and BTC.My thoughts are as 30k has broken, the psychological level is cleared and it looks like it could retrace 3% before gearing to climb the inner 30s.
This means that ETH will also fault likely to a greater extent, while BTC has had a constant level-up structure, ETH has been a bit fidgety. It looks like it has just given a double top. But how many times has that been a real signal in this rally-run? Very few times has it meant a correction.
My prediction is the 1700s tested. I would not trade this, unless you have been following the S/R zones and trends, or you can hold a short, its probably going to be very choppy.
My buy zones would be 1700 support, and 1600 geometric support.
Keep in mind the IMF just upgraded its forecast to 'rough landing' which means we might see the end of a rally.
Note
The main thing to notice is that ETH is showing heavy rsi divergence while BTC remains somewhat resilentNote
This is what a geometric support would look like, with 1900 being a 0.5 fib extension of the bank 'crisis'.white line is a 75 day EMA (length of the rally we are at)
Again this is probably a doomsday H&S scenario.
Note
Looking for a break of neckline,1650 would look better
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