THREAD #1 : Ask your coin chart analysis and perspectives !
Updated
Let's try this new format !
Ask me my chart analysis of one coin you want in comment, if I find something intersting to say and show, I will update the idea with it. This will be only base on my chart analysis strategy. I will not give fundamental analysis, so if you want me to analyse a shitcoin I will do it ! I think it's could be interesting if you want to have another point of view than your own. It could be usefull to compare perspective of evolution or area of interest for exemple. I will also post a comment with the name of each coin I had if you want to react about it or debate.
Before to start I want to remind that we are in a period of conflict and news can emerge at any moment with strong effect and reaction on market. So invest carefully on this hard times and reduce your loss exposition on market when you can. Don't forget to take profit too.
"Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions"
As I've already done an analysis on BTC that you can find in LDTP#7 (attached to this idea), let's start with ETH.
ETHEREUM ✅
We can find on ETH a similar structure as BTC, like couples of altcoins also (that why it gave me the idea of this thread).
So we can find on ETH like on BTC a reversal pattern on support with nice buying volumes on exit which show an interest for the support of the weekly channel. Furthermore we have a conjuncture of supports which confort me in the strenght of it. I will not re-explain the structure of the U-Turn which is barely similar to the Bitcoin so let's continue with perspectives of evolutions. And sorry for my bearish friends but I will not be oriented in that way. We have support, weekly primary support, signal of interest on it, I just respect it. Don't forget that we are in uptrend, we did a great consolidation, but it stay on uptrend and with the growing interest of institutionnals and companies, I don't think it's the great time to speculate on a "to the cave" scenario (exception made if a news changes the dynamic). So I believe we have a strong probability to rejoin the resistance area of $4870 - $4640 in the next couples months. I will prioritize scenario (a) or (b) to do it, 60%-40% chance between this two possibilities I think, but if we reject on the previous high around $3200 (so fail of (a) plan) we need to see a fall of volume and a leak of interest for the bear side and why not lateralization to expect a "sure" execution of the plan (b) (like we saw in July 2021). In the other case if we see constant volumes we will construct a Wyckoff accumulation pattern which could occur to a spring which could bring us to $1500, in a flush probably (scenario (c) - low chance to happen I think). But that mean to break the support and I don't see it.
First obstacle is the green resistance, I don't think it will bring a lot of consolidation but maybe more lateralization on it before to go straight to the resistance area and ATH. And it's on this area that we will probably see the next bearish interest. It will be a good opportunity to gauge the bull strenght around three scenarios.
(1) breakout of the area and the resistance / lateralization and gauge of the bull strength in a SOS - LPS pattern to conclude by a breakout of the weekly channel by the top. I will not hide this is the strongest possibility but except in a context of bullrun I don't see it realise. And on a general view of the crypto market I see more construct phase for future than bullrun like we had in the past. But if it happen it's not impossible to see it reach $8000 on this phase.
(2) Lateralization on the resistance, work of it in a pattern of SOS - LPS, breakout and fail SOS on the resistance of the channel inducing consolidation (to the green resistance becoming support this time or go down to the support of the weekly channel).
(3) Fail of the SOS - LPS pattern or simply just a strong reject of the area without working in it. Which could bring a deep consolidation to the support of the weekly channel probably.
And for this three scenario it will be important to analysis the market on time to see which one have the more chance of success.
I wait your reply !
Ask me my chart analysis of one coin you want in comment, if I find something intersting to say and show, I will update the idea with it. This will be only base on my chart analysis strategy. I will not give fundamental analysis, so if you want me to analyse a shitcoin I will do it ! I think it's could be interesting if you want to have another point of view than your own. It could be usefull to compare perspective of evolution or area of interest for exemple. I will also post a comment with the name of each coin I had if you want to react about it or debate.
Before to start I want to remind that we are in a period of conflict and news can emerge at any moment with strong effect and reaction on market. So invest carefully on this hard times and reduce your loss exposition on market when you can. Don't forget to take profit too.
"Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions"
As I've already done an analysis on BTC that you can find in LDTP#7 (attached to this idea), let's start with ETH.
ETHEREUM ✅
We can find on ETH a similar structure as BTC, like couples of altcoins also (that why it gave me the idea of this thread).
So we can find on ETH like on BTC a reversal pattern on support with nice buying volumes on exit which show an interest for the support of the weekly channel. Furthermore we have a conjuncture of supports which confort me in the strenght of it. I will not re-explain the structure of the U-Turn which is barely similar to the Bitcoin so let's continue with perspectives of evolutions. And sorry for my bearish friends but I will not be oriented in that way. We have support, weekly primary support, signal of interest on it, I just respect it. Don't forget that we are in uptrend, we did a great consolidation, but it stay on uptrend and with the growing interest of institutionnals and companies, I don't think it's the great time to speculate on a "to the cave" scenario (exception made if a news changes the dynamic). So I believe we have a strong probability to rejoin the resistance area of $4870 - $4640 in the next couples months. I will prioritize scenario (a) or (b) to do it, 60%-40% chance between this two possibilities I think, but if we reject on the previous high around $3200 (so fail of (a) plan) we need to see a fall of volume and a leak of interest for the bear side and why not lateralization to expect a "sure" execution of the plan (b) (like we saw in July 2021). In the other case if we see constant volumes we will construct a Wyckoff accumulation pattern which could occur to a spring which could bring us to $1500, in a flush probably (scenario (c) - low chance to happen I think). But that mean to break the support and I don't see it.
First obstacle is the green resistance, I don't think it will bring a lot of consolidation but maybe more lateralization on it before to go straight to the resistance area and ATH. And it's on this area that we will probably see the next bearish interest. It will be a good opportunity to gauge the bull strenght around three scenarios.
(1) breakout of the area and the resistance / lateralization and gauge of the bull strength in a SOS - LPS pattern to conclude by a breakout of the weekly channel by the top. I will not hide this is the strongest possibility but except in a context of bullrun I don't see it realise. And on a general view of the crypto market I see more construct phase for future than bullrun like we had in the past. But if it happen it's not impossible to see it reach $8000 on this phase.
(2) Lateralization on the resistance, work of it in a pattern of SOS - LPS, breakout and fail SOS on the resistance of the channel inducing consolidation (to the green resistance becoming support this time or go down to the support of the weekly channel).
(3) Fail of the SOS - LPS pattern or simply just a strong reject of the area without working in it. Which could bring a deep consolidation to the support of the weekly channel probably.
And for this three scenario it will be important to analysis the market on time to see which one have the more chance of success.
I wait your reply !
Note
COSMOS [ATOM/USDT] ✅Always in the same crypto market pattern, cosmos is evoluating around uptrend lines forming a channel. Not a hazard if most of the top market cap project evolute in these weekly channels that show the correlation of interest on cryptoassets.
I always have the same vision for crypto market, we are on support, we have signals on multiple coins, so this show a interest for an end of consolidation. On cosmos signal is less clear, we have exhaust, we have pressure but we don't have a clear buying volume. To note that we have growing volumes on the bull side but it's less powerful and interesting than when it's on the support. I think it's also due to the complexity of the channel which is less clear than other coins. In fact there is clearly a adjustement of valuation of this coin end 2021 moving his channel higher like we can see with white arrows on left.
In term of perspective, like I said, I see cryptomarket react in the next few days/weeks so I see it going up to retest the resistance area. In the case we retest the support before, which isn't impossible by the fact we didn't add clearly buying volume on the last touch, I believe it will react again like is showing the (a) scenario. In the case support break there is a nice spot between the support area and the initial channel support around $14.90 - $17.70 (scenario b) but low probability to happen for me. We are always attached to updates on conflicts between Russia - Ukraine and macroeconomic evolution so it could come from it.
In term of upside evolution, it's similar to etherum, we will gauge the strenght of the movement and buyers around the resistance area at $42.70 - $44.70 probably in an SOS-LPS pattern I think. If it succeed (scenario 1) it could target around $70 - $74 (with a clear breakout of the resistance area it could be higher). On the other side if SOS fail, first we will rework the polarity area around the middle of the channel (gray lines) if sellers pressure is too high we will go back to the support of the channel (scenario 2).
It's only on the resistance area we could say if it will be (1) or (2) for the moment it's 50/50 if we go there.
I wait your reply !
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.