Ethereum...the BIG picture
Updated
Ok it important to know this before hearing my analysis,. if you have followed me or read any of my analysis you probably would assume I am a bear.
Most of my time spent in the crypto domain (and in traditional finance) is spent on educating clients, friend, family and even strangers on the internet on technology (as I am a full on nerd and technologist + I had a career in software) ...
anyways...naturally price speculation comes up. Especially with crypto.
I will admit that I used to be a holder of crypto and of traditional public equity . (I famously bought Tesla at $150 and sold at $450)
So when I came to this dilemma of what to learn so that I could teach others I was experiencing very large swings as I was into crypto early and it was a large portion of my portfolio.
I sought out traders like @OptimoomFX and others because of experience, and no apparent bias to any domain or asset. This to me is logical and reasonable.
I think that having a bias towards an asset and asset class was causing me pain emotionally and in my pocket book.
I am firm in my belief that being a fan of an asset or asset class you invest hard earned $ into is the worst position you can be in as an investor or speculator,
As a rational/logical person I gravitated towards risk off strategies.
I go with the flow and swing trade because I don't like to lose money, but also because there is sound reason and logic behind it.
By not digging my feet in and choosing a side, I keep myself unbiased and de-risked. I study, I watch, I analyze, and then I teach when I feel my analysis is up to snuff. That being said I am every day still striving to learn more and do better.
I like risk-off strategies that have the most upside potential, So I no longer hold, I earn APR on stable coins and keep my cap ready for margin/leverage plays when a few others I trust and I agree,
TLDR: I used to be a holder, and now I speculate through contracts and margin plays.
SO ON TO ETHHER,
Really the chart says and shows it all. Since late 2021 Ethereum has:
Hit a new all time high (MAY 21 2021)
crashed 60%
come back up to hit a new all time high while creating for the most part higher lows.
crashed once more in early December not nearly as severe as May crash
and in the last 3 or so weeks has slow repeated the cycle or dipping and correcting.
SOME THINGS REALLY STAND OUT TO ME:
1. May crash was much much more steep and severe and had far more volume. It is well known now that the market was extremely greedy and leveraged to the gills.
2. When borrowing up to 10x and then having to close such position long or short and there are many doing it, well you get a catastrophe. 60% hurts bad, let me tell you. Can you imagine how bad it felt for those who were fully levered?
3. 4So this round we are seeing less volume, less open interest thus...less long liquidations, almost no short liquidations...yet...and I am not positive if there will be.
*Either way what we are seeing is a more healthy version of the market intra cycle like you see in the RSI index where I have highlighted.
**In the areas where volume over moving average (yellow area on my charts) and RSI are crossing.... well just follow the line up and see how the price is reacting. It's volatile. And markets need to correct both ways.
4. Markets have a nature just like humans have a nature, because we are literally from nature and we run the markets.
*It is not just these indicators and charts and metrics at play. We have human emotions, mostly fear and greed in this case.
The market is less greedy this time, they are actually more fearful right now and that is a provable metric. Check this link for the crypto fear and greed index:
alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/
TLDR:
>short term ETH has looked like crap.
>When I put it on 1 day and zoom out I see an asset with a lot of potential, that i think the future internet will be built on top of.
>I see an asset got cut 60% because of extreme greed, followed by a natural more recovery. (Less open interest at play ie. derivatives markets.
>the worst day since the May crash was Dec 4 2021 and if you look at the candle for that day it is clear that it was sold down hard and fast but did not come near former lows or resistance levels AND it was bought back nearly 30% from intra day low
> In fact as far as candles and wicks go, all wicks that have any relevance are on the sell side meaning that ETH has a ton of support and keeps setting new local lows except for recently
>It is clear to see that ETH is under bought and oversold when you look at far right bottom of this chart and the VMA is blending with the volume bars on the sell side.
>In other words ETH has been super cooled off and primed for a launch.
> As I said in the chart there still isnt a ton of evidence of health, however today is starting to look strong as long we don't have a sell off or short seller pounding,
>Either way ETH looks sound as a long term investment and if you a re comfortable with volatility then I would say it's probably the best long term investment in the cryptocurrency domain with over 500M market cap it is a serious contender for the title.
**THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL PLEASE BE CAREFUL WHEN TRADING THESES ARE RISKY GROWTH ASSETS**
Check some of my related ideas linked below.
Most of my time spent in the crypto domain (and in traditional finance) is spent on educating clients, friend, family and even strangers on the internet on technology (as I am a full on nerd and technologist + I had a career in software) ...
anyways...naturally price speculation comes up. Especially with crypto.
I will admit that I used to be a holder of crypto and of traditional public equity . (I famously bought Tesla at $150 and sold at $450)
So when I came to this dilemma of what to learn so that I could teach others I was experiencing very large swings as I was into crypto early and it was a large portion of my portfolio.
I sought out traders like @OptimoomFX and others because of experience, and no apparent bias to any domain or asset. This to me is logical and reasonable.
I think that having a bias towards an asset and asset class was causing me pain emotionally and in my pocket book.
I am firm in my belief that being a fan of an asset or asset class you invest hard earned $ into is the worst position you can be in as an investor or speculator,
As a rational/logical person I gravitated towards risk off strategies.
I go with the flow and swing trade because I don't like to lose money, but also because there is sound reason and logic behind it.
By not digging my feet in and choosing a side, I keep myself unbiased and de-risked. I study, I watch, I analyze, and then I teach when I feel my analysis is up to snuff. That being said I am every day still striving to learn more and do better.
I like risk-off strategies that have the most upside potential, So I no longer hold, I earn APR on stable coins and keep my cap ready for margin/leverage plays when a few others I trust and I agree,
TLDR: I used to be a holder, and now I speculate through contracts and margin plays.
SO ON TO ETHHER,
Really the chart says and shows it all. Since late 2021 Ethereum has:
Hit a new all time high (MAY 21 2021)
crashed 60%
come back up to hit a new all time high while creating for the most part higher lows.
crashed once more in early December not nearly as severe as May crash
and in the last 3 or so weeks has slow repeated the cycle or dipping and correcting.
SOME THINGS REALLY STAND OUT TO ME:
1. May crash was much much more steep and severe and had far more volume. It is well known now that the market was extremely greedy and leveraged to the gills.
2. When borrowing up to 10x and then having to close such position long or short and there are many doing it, well you get a catastrophe. 60% hurts bad, let me tell you. Can you imagine how bad it felt for those who were fully levered?
3. 4So this round we are seeing less volume, less open interest thus...less long liquidations, almost no short liquidations...yet...and I am not positive if there will be.
*Either way what we are seeing is a more healthy version of the market intra cycle like you see in the RSI index where I have highlighted.
**In the areas where volume over moving average (yellow area on my charts) and RSI are crossing.... well just follow the line up and see how the price is reacting. It's volatile. And markets need to correct both ways.
4. Markets have a nature just like humans have a nature, because we are literally from nature and we run the markets.
*It is not just these indicators and charts and metrics at play. We have human emotions, mostly fear and greed in this case.
The market is less greedy this time, they are actually more fearful right now and that is a provable metric. Check this link for the crypto fear and greed index:
alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/
TLDR:
>short term ETH has looked like crap.
>When I put it on 1 day and zoom out I see an asset with a lot of potential, that i think the future internet will be built on top of.
>I see an asset got cut 60% because of extreme greed, followed by a natural more recovery. (Less open interest at play ie. derivatives markets.
>the worst day since the May crash was Dec 4 2021 and if you look at the candle for that day it is clear that it was sold down hard and fast but did not come near former lows or resistance levels AND it was bought back nearly 30% from intra day low
> In fact as far as candles and wicks go, all wicks that have any relevance are on the sell side meaning that ETH has a ton of support and keeps setting new local lows except for recently
>It is clear to see that ETH is under bought and oversold when you look at far right bottom of this chart and the VMA is blending with the volume bars on the sell side.
>In other words ETH has been super cooled off and primed for a launch.
> As I said in the chart there still isnt a ton of evidence of health, however today is starting to look strong as long we don't have a sell off or short seller pounding,
>Either way ETH looks sound as a long term investment and if you a re comfortable with volatility then I would say it's probably the best long term investment in the cryptocurrency domain with over 500M market cap it is a serious contender for the title.
**THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL PLEASE BE CAREFUL WHEN TRADING THESES ARE RISKY GROWTH ASSETS**
Check some of my related ideas linked below.
Note
eth is now pushing local high set 1-26-2022 but it does appear to be losing steam
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