Short

Ethereum / US Dollars (ETHUSDT) Short Selling with DCA 19/09/23

Updated

Technical Analysis:
In this analysis, I adopt an all-encompassing approach that melds Fibonacci retracement and extension levels with Fibonacci Projection, confluence analysis, and the MACD indicator, with a distinct short sell bias for the 4 Hour Time frame as requested on the assignment, dated on 15/09/2023, 12:55 pm on LinkedIn message section. Additionally, I'll introduce a strategic Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy with two scale-in levels. Please refer to the chart for a comprehensive visual analysis:

please zoom out the chart for better comprehension.

Key Technical Observations:

Fibonacci Levels: My analysis meticulously places Fibonacci retracement and extension and projection levels on the chart, highlighting potential resistance zones and solidifying the short sell bias.

MACD Divergence: Vigilance for MACD divergence patterns remains paramount. (Bearish Divergence) accompanied with (Hidden Bearish Divergence) bolsters the short sell bias.

Strategic Entry Points: I identify key entry points for initiating short positions, at $1642 Spot Price at the time of publication capitalizing on price movements in harmony with the overall bias.

DXY is very much bullish which is an other sign that the Total Crypto Market cap may fall and ultimately BTC will dip to the lower prices

the above analysis can show the possibilities of DXY rally

Technical Conditions:

Take-Profit Levels (TPs): To maximize potential gains from the short sell bias, consider the following TP levels:

1st TP: $1570
2nd TP: $1440
3rd TP: $1260

Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): I advocate a DCA strategy for scaling into short positions. Start with a partial position at the initial entry point and progressively adding to the short position at the following DCA scale-in levels:

Scale-In Level 1: DCA Price Level 1: $1735
Scale-In Level 2: DCA Price Level 2: $1830
Stop Loss: Prudent risk management includes placing a stop loss at $1945 which is above the 78.6% level of the minor reverse Fibonacci Retracement level, to safeguard against unexpected price reversals.

Trading Scenario:

Short Sell Bias: Given the confluence of Fibonacci resistance, a bearish and a hidden MACD divergence, and strategic entry points, my analysis strongly favors a short sell bias.

Adaptability: Stay adaptable to market conditions, prepared to adjust your strategy in response to any unexpected developments.

This analysis is grounded in historical data, technical indicators, and a clear bearish bias, complemented by a DCA strategy with two scale-in levels. As with any trading strategy, it's essential to conduct thorough research, adhere to your trading plan, and continuously refine your approach as we navigate the dynamic cryptocurrency markets.

I eagerly await your insights and engaging discussions about this analysis, as we explore opportunities in bullish market scenarios!

Note

Edit: Typing Error Correction...
Both the Scale in Levels are Sell Limit Orders and there is a typing mistake. *(Buy Limits are Typing Mistake(Errors))

Correct:
Sell Limit 1: $1735
Sell Limit 2: $1830

Note

Fundamental Analysis - FOMC Meeting, September 20, 2023

Overview:
The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for September 20, 2023, holds paramount significance for financial markets worldwide. One of the focal points of this event centers on the potential decision regarding an interest rate increase by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Interest Rate Decision:
Market participants are on high alert for any indication of an interest rate hike during the meeting. The Federal Reserve's decision regarding interest rates carries profound implications for the U.S. economy and global financial markets. If an interest rate increase is announced, it signifies the central bank's response to various economic factors, including inflation, employment levels, and overall economic stability.

Impact on the U.S. Dollar (DXY):
An interest rate hike typically exerts upward pressure on the U.S. Dollar (USD). Consequently, this may lead to a strengthening of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD's performance against a basket of major world currencies. A stronger USD can have implications for global trade, foreign exchange markets, and various asset classes.

Effect on Cryptocurrencies:
In the realm of cryptocurrencies, a stronger USD historically correlates with downward pressure on digital asset prices. A robust USD can make it relatively more expensive for foreign investors to enter the cryptocurrency market, leading to decreased demand. However, it's essential to consider that cryptocurrency markets are influenced by multifaceted factors, including market sentiment, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic trends.

Conclusion:
The FOMC meeting on September 20, 2023, serves as a critical event for investors and traders across traditional and digital asset markets. Beyond the immediate reaction to interest rate decisions, it is vital to monitor the Federal Reserve's statements and outlook for insights into future monetary policy. The interplay between monetary policy, economic fundamentals, and market sentiment will shape the dynamics of financial markets in the days and weeks following this pivotal event.

Trade closed: target reached

1 TP achieved

Trade active

2 and 3 TP is Progressing

BitonGroup

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