Did Ethereum Die?
Ok I know that title was a little bit click baity but I think the information here is important.
If you haven't been following I have been short on ETH since $3900.
I did close some and pay liabilities on the way down to reduce my margin risk threshold.
So..here's the update for the day on Ethereum price action:
1. What I can tell from monitoring short seller and swing trader activity, all buy rallies will be sold (3 periods of buying in a row) this isn't a good thing for anyone speculating on spot or long positions.
2. On chain data via CryptoQuant is showing an increase in long liquidations similar to other crashes, however not as bad as this summer's crash when the market became quite greedy. Check the link below.
imgur.com/a/jvVxQoj
3. 200 DEMA on 4 hour chart is $3765, I have noticed from a handful of short selling and swing treading cohorts, that there are many limit sell orders set in that zone.
4. I also have a sell @3765 which is the DEMA right now, a range between 3700 and 3765 is acceptable if you fancy this trade but trade at your own risk this is not advice. ALWAYS BE CAUTIOUS.
5. $3296 new local low as of 1/6/2021
6. 3 hours into this most recent 4 hour candle (green period but hollow red on my indicator strategy) we are seeing resistance (via wicks on top of the candle)
which in combination with the MACD being under zero and under the signal on the MACD index and weak volume on buying periods and or rallies is indicating further price slippage to come from ETH.
7. TLDR for point #6 is that this is very likely suckers rally if a bullish confirmation does come
8. The RSI histrogram is a visual representation of the Relative Strength Index, this specific histogram is also an indicator, however if you notice previous periods you will see that it is not always wise to buy on first signal because the histrogram has room for more depth and width (price can go deeper, and sell off last longer).
That being said, I still hold firm that this is an asset and asset class that will pay off long term. The market needs correction.
My take is that many investors and even analysts becomes fans of the asset(s) and they are in the denial phase of market psychology, because we have been trending down for some time now. It's my opinion that the public at large see's prices and not much else. Meaning they swoop in to buy "discounts." The bias that is formed from the admiration for the asset (which has a speculative price) makes analysts and investors alike unreliable. There should be no bias and fan fare when it comes to analyzing and/or making investment decisions imo.
Right now the short sellers have all of the power, they've been profiting weekly since the fall of 2021. This means that they have increased their equity which allows them to borrow more ETH for short sales thus creating more sell pressure than normal.
I think that if ETH doesn't somehow manage a miracle breakout here, we will see price depreciation continue and we will move from denial to panic and eventually capitulation.
Once we capitulate the market can then move forward. Shorts will be liquidated and this asset and asset class can see new all time highs. Which I would actually like to see.
Signing off,
Crypto Slayer
If you haven't been following I have been short on ETH since $3900.
I did close some and pay liabilities on the way down to reduce my margin risk threshold.
So..here's the update for the day on Ethereum price action:
1. What I can tell from monitoring short seller and swing trader activity, all buy rallies will be sold (3 periods of buying in a row) this isn't a good thing for anyone speculating on spot or long positions.
2. On chain data via CryptoQuant is showing an increase in long liquidations similar to other crashes, however not as bad as this summer's crash when the market became quite greedy. Check the link below.
imgur.com/a/jvVxQoj
3. 200 DEMA on 4 hour chart is $3765, I have noticed from a handful of short selling and swing treading cohorts, that there are many limit sell orders set in that zone.
4. I also have a sell @3765 which is the DEMA right now, a range between 3700 and 3765 is acceptable if you fancy this trade but trade at your own risk this is not advice. ALWAYS BE CAUTIOUS.
5. $3296 new local low as of 1/6/2021
6. 3 hours into this most recent 4 hour candle (green period but hollow red on my indicator strategy) we are seeing resistance (via wicks on top of the candle)
which in combination with the MACD being under zero and under the signal on the MACD index and weak volume on buying periods and or rallies is indicating further price slippage to come from ETH.
7. TLDR for point #6 is that this is very likely suckers rally if a bullish confirmation does come
8. The RSI histrogram is a visual representation of the Relative Strength Index, this specific histogram is also an indicator, however if you notice previous periods you will see that it is not always wise to buy on first signal because the histrogram has room for more depth and width (price can go deeper, and sell off last longer).
That being said, I still hold firm that this is an asset and asset class that will pay off long term. The market needs correction.
My take is that many investors and even analysts becomes fans of the asset(s) and they are in the denial phase of market psychology, because we have been trending down for some time now. It's my opinion that the public at large see's prices and not much else. Meaning they swoop in to buy "discounts." The bias that is formed from the admiration for the asset (which has a speculative price) makes analysts and investors alike unreliable. There should be no bias and fan fare when it comes to analyzing and/or making investment decisions imo.
Right now the short sellers have all of the power, they've been profiting weekly since the fall of 2021. This means that they have increased their equity which allows them to borrow more ETH for short sales thus creating more sell pressure than normal.
I think that if ETH doesn't somehow manage a miracle breakout here, we will see price depreciation continue and we will move from denial to panic and eventually capitulation.
Once we capitulate the market can then move forward. Shorts will be liquidated and this asset and asset class can see new all time highs. Which I would actually like to see.
Signing off,
Crypto Slayer
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