$ETHUSDT: Update and ETF key level
Updated
Trend is strong in basically all timeframes for Ethereum here. There's a detail worth considering regarding the quarterly timeframe trend that is in charge of the 'bull cycle' as people call it. That is the timeframe Bitcoin and Ethereum operate on as far as the main cycles of greed and fear go.
Currently, Bitcoin's chart suggests it will undergo 2 more months of sideways action until at least April onwards, before resuming the bullish trend it has been tracing so far.
Whereas Ethereum's chart suggests it can steadily trend, and has no such signal indicating sideways action. Lower timeframes also suggest upside is substantial and can happen during this period, which possibly means the
ETHBTC ratio will go higher for a while.
Overall, long term targets for both are idential in % distance from where price was before the ETF decision, so I thought it was logical to hold 50/50% exposure or just all in Ethereum and stake it to have superior returns to Bitcoin with lower risk, as staking reduces the downside risk to invalidation in a way, and Bitcoin doesn't give a yield to holders.
So far, that theory has worked, but longer term, they should both achieve similar performance, as the worst case scenario forETHBTC, which means ratio will mean revert and remain sideways long term.
Currently, I think it makes more sense to milk the current upwards swing inETHBTC and keep larger exposure to it, than Bitcoin. This likely applies to some select altcoins that have strong charts and fundamental trends as well, but that is higher risk vs sticking to the two main coins embraced by TradFi already, which have or will have a spot ETF and have vastly higher liquidity and trading volumes. This should be a factor in your sizing criteria for sure...if you do engage in altcoin trading.
Let's see how things evolve until the end of this quarter.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Currently, Bitcoin's chart suggests it will undergo 2 more months of sideways action until at least April onwards, before resuming the bullish trend it has been tracing so far.
Whereas Ethereum's chart suggests it can steadily trend, and has no such signal indicating sideways action. Lower timeframes also suggest upside is substantial and can happen during this period, which possibly means the
ETHBTC ratio will go higher for a while.Overall, long term targets for both are idential in % distance from where price was before the ETF decision, so I thought it was logical to hold 50/50% exposure or just all in Ethereum and stake it to have superior returns to Bitcoin with lower risk, as staking reduces the downside risk to invalidation in a way, and Bitcoin doesn't give a yield to holders.
So far, that theory has worked, but longer term, they should both achieve similar performance, as the worst case scenario for
ETHBTC, which means ratio will mean revert and remain sideways long term.Currently, I think it makes more sense to milk the current upwards swing in
ETHBTC and keep larger exposure to it, than Bitcoin. This likely applies to some select altcoins that have strong charts and fundamental trends as well, but that is higher risk vs sticking to the two main coins embraced by TradFi already, which have or will have a spot ETF and have vastly higher liquidity and trading volumes. This should be a factor in your sizing criteria for sure...if you do engage in altcoin trading.Let's see how things evolve until the end of this quarter.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Note
RgMov making new highs here signaling hidden strength in recent price action.
Note
Huge selloff in crypto due to FTX GBTC shares being sold, we had even the kitchen sink thrown at Bitcoin's ETF demand, today we heard from Gox repaying some people...
If this low holds across the board today, we have a decent bottom from here onwards. Sentiment could have reset, after briefly being a bit frothy 1 day before the ETF decision.
Ethereum showing some promising short term signs here, let's wait and see.
Note
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