🔍Let's dive into today's analysis. Today's focus is on ETH, which recently experienced a 28% pump in anticipation of the potential approval of an Ethereum ETF. As I mentioned in my previous analysis, breaking the $2964 level was crucial, and it provided a strong trigger for opening a position, leading to a 28% gain with a high risk-to-reward ratio.
📰Today, the final decision regarding the ETF is expected to be announced. If approved, Ethereum could see another pump, potentially surpassing the $4063 level and aiming for its all-time high (ATH) around $4600. However, if the ETF is not approved, Ethereum is likely to dump, possibly losing the $2880 support level amid market fear and excitement, which would be bad news for ETH holders. Personally, I believe the ETF is more likely to be approved, leading to another pump in Ethereum's chart.
🔔The announcement is just a few hours away. If you believe the ETF will be approved, I suggest moving to lower timeframes, finding a trigger based on your strategy, and opening a long position. Conversely, if you think the ETF will not be approved, you can apply the same approach for a short position.
📈Ignoring the ETF news and focusing purely on technicals, the RSI is significantly overbought, reaching as high as 89. This indicates high market excitement, and the RSI is now starting to come down but hasn't exited the overbought territory yet. There is a high probability of range-bound movement until the price meets the SMA25, potentially forming a box near $3798. After the SMA25 convergence, we might see renewed momentum. If the price breaks $3798 sooner, it would be even better as the resistance would be broken with more bullish momentum, allowing the price to move up more smoothly and with fewer candles.
🚀For long position targets, consider the $4063 resistance as the first target. If this resistance is surpassed, the next target would be the $4600 ATH.
📉For shorts, as long as the volume of red candles continues to decrease, I wouldn't consider shorting. To short, wait for the SMA25 to reach the candles, and if the bottom of the box breaks with increased selling volume, you could enter a risky short position. Given this would be against the primary market momentum, you should take profits quickly.
💣The main short position to watch for a complete trend reversal would be the break of the $2880 support level.
📝In conclusion, Ethereum is at a critical juncture with the potential ETF approval news imminent. If approved, we could see significant bullish movement towards and beyond $4063, aiming for the ATH around $4600. On the other hand, if not approved, Ethereum might experience a notable drop, potentially losing the $2880 support. From a technical perspective, watch the RSI and SMA25 interactions closely, and plan your trades based on the key levels and volume confirmations mentioned above. Always stay informed and be ready to adjust your strategy based on market developments.