I've been following the retracement on a multi-year level for some time, but unfortunately it looks like we won't be able to look at 2016-2019 as our guide for what is happening:
The trend from 2016-2019 was useful guidance but will not occur in the same way as prior:
- 3 year bull market (2016-2018), 1 year bear (2019-2020 to COIVD low in March 2020)
- Bounce off 0.618 retracement
Now we are seeing:
- 2 year bull market (2020-2021), and I expect ~1 year bear market (November 2021 - October 2022)
- We broke through the 0.618 retracement already
So what can we look at for guidance?
- On a long scale, we have a steady support line from the all-time-low level. We touched it in 2016, 2017 (x2) and in 2020
- The trendline support is ~25% down from where we are today (we would likely hit between $80-100/share), significantly off of the ATH of ~$300/share
The question is, do we scale in at this $80-100 level, or do we think this downtrend may continue, wherein we would break this support line, retrace it, and look short for the foreseeable future. I'm leaning towards the bullish case for the Long-term after a 25% correction from current levels.
The trend from 2016-2019 was useful guidance but will not occur in the same way as prior:
- 3 year bull market (2016-2018), 1 year bear (2019-2020 to COIVD low in March 2020)
- Bounce off 0.618 retracement
Now we are seeing:
- 2 year bull market (2020-2021), and I expect ~1 year bear market (November 2021 - October 2022)
- We broke through the 0.618 retracement already
So what can we look at for guidance?
- On a long scale, we have a steady support line from the all-time-low level. We touched it in 2016, 2017 (x2) and in 2020
- The trendline support is ~25% down from where we are today (we would likely hit between $80-100/share), significantly off of the ATH of ~$300/share
The question is, do we scale in at this $80-100 level, or do we think this downtrend may continue, wherein we would break this support line, retrace it, and look short for the foreseeable future. I'm leaning towards the bullish case for the Long-term after a 25% correction from current levels.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.