Euro Area Interest Rate Reduction a signal?
Euro Area Interest Rate
◻️Reduced from 4.5% to 4.25% as expected
◻️We can acknowledge the pattern & recognize its significance without jumping to any immediate conclusions
◻️Chart will need to be combined with others to make assertions, such as the 10Y/2Y Yield Spread
U.S. 10Y/2Y Yield Spread with U.S. Unemployment rate
The amount of months that have passed prior to recession initiation after the yield curve makes its first turn back up towards 0% level
◻️ Historical Average timeframe is April 2024
◻️ Historical Maximum timeframe would be Jan 2025
No guarantee that history will repeat. Again, just a chart and some data that is worth keeping an eye on. Some people state the bond market is now broken and manipulated, we should know within 12 - 18 months, or sooner.
PUKA
◻️Reduced from 4.5% to 4.25% as expected
◻️We can acknowledge the pattern & recognize its significance without jumping to any immediate conclusions
◻️Chart will need to be combined with others to make assertions, such as the 10Y/2Y Yield Spread
U.S. 10Y/2Y Yield Spread with U.S. Unemployment rate
The amount of months that have passed prior to recession initiation after the yield curve makes its first turn back up towards 0% level
◻️ Historical Average timeframe is April 2024
◻️ Historical Maximum timeframe would be Jan 2025
No guarantee that history will repeat. Again, just a chart and some data that is worth keeping an eye on. Some people state the bond market is now broken and manipulated, we should know within 12 - 18 months, or sooner.
PUKA
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.