Why I am going short on EURAUD
Updated
EURAUD has reached to one of its strongest resistance zone. In the past few years price fell down sharply after reaching this point in several occasions. Now again market is in this area.
If you look at the oscillators like RSI, MACD, Stochastic on the chart to measure the energy of the market, you see divergences and RSI overbought which all means market doesn't have enough energy to break this resistance zone.
Based on price action and the Japaneese Candle Stick patterns we can easily see a few small candles has been shaped on that area which is showing buyers are not very strong to push the price higher. The last candle for yesterday is a kind of high test bar which has a long leg on its top and then a long red body indicated the pressure from sellers. As you see this candle went below the low's of its previous candle which is another selling signal.
Based on Elliot Waves we had an ABC correction when priced came down from this zone last time ( From Jan 2019 to mid Apr). After than a new set of 5 waves completed. If you test the idea with Fibonacci it confirms the 5 impulse waves are counted correctly.
From the fundamental analysis point of view, Mario Draghi said ECB could cut interest rates again or provide further asset purchases if inflation doesn't reach its target. He admits the only option to increase the rate is when inflation goes much higher than the target. So this sounds like a sell signal or at least not supporting a bullish rally for EUR anymore.
These are just a couple of signals we have to go short on EURAUD. The other possible scenario is EUR breaking this area upward which means our forecast failed, we change the position direction and get ready for a long position then, but we don't want to put much emphasis on this scenario as it is not really high probability.
If you look at the oscillators like RSI, MACD, Stochastic on the chart to measure the energy of the market, you see divergences and RSI overbought which all means market doesn't have enough energy to break this resistance zone.
Based on price action and the Japaneese Candle Stick patterns we can easily see a few small candles has been shaped on that area which is showing buyers are not very strong to push the price higher. The last candle for yesterday is a kind of high test bar which has a long leg on its top and then a long red body indicated the pressure from sellers. As you see this candle went below the low's of its previous candle which is another selling signal.
Based on Elliot Waves we had an ABC correction when priced came down from this zone last time ( From Jan 2019 to mid Apr). After than a new set of 5 waves completed. If you test the idea with Fibonacci it confirms the 5 impulse waves are counted correctly.
From the fundamental analysis point of view, Mario Draghi said ECB could cut interest rates again or provide further asset purchases if inflation doesn't reach its target. He admits the only option to increase the rate is when inflation goes much higher than the target. So this sounds like a sell signal or at least not supporting a bullish rally for EUR anymore.
These are just a couple of signals we have to go short on EURAUD. The other possible scenario is EUR breaking this area upward which means our forecast failed, we change the position direction and get ready for a long position then, but we don't want to put much emphasis on this scenario as it is not really high probability.
Trade active
The trade is still active and has a good bearish movement. The target should be around 1.5750Note
Trade manually closed at 25th of July just after ECB meeting which they didn't reduce the interest rate and put some conditions for future monitory policy. This will result in a new bullish trend so we closed the trade manually with 330 pips profit
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.