$EUR v. $AUD - Geo Eyes Reversal | #fibonacci #elliottwave #ECB
Friends,
Following are a series of chart representing a top-down analysis of the
EURAUD pair. On a fundamental basis, I have shown in other charts a probable deterioration of the 
EUR, against a likely appreciation in commodity-wide class, including #gold, platinum and palladium - This should impact on positively correlated currencies, such as 
AUD, 
CAD, 
CHF and NZD to some extent (see these charts and analyses under my TradingView alias: 4xForecaster).
First, let's take a look at the 4-hour, daily and weekly chart, paying particular attention to Fibonacci clusters:
1 -EURAUD - 4-Hour Chart:
In this chart, we are likely witnessing a corrective development in terms of Elliott Wave, with the nascence of an Expanding Triangle ("ET" with internals of 3-3-3-3-3). At first sight, one might believe that recent price action carved a high from which price would decline further to complete point-e of the ET.
However, use of the proprietary Predictive/Forecasting Model suggests that price will likely mount a final intermediate offensive to the level define as circa: 1.62468. A downward 1.618-Fibonacci extension was used to approximate the possible residence of point-e.
Although this may appear too speculative, I am simply using Elliott Wave internal A-B-C structures which have developed over the course of this correction, such that a connection of the tops is delineating divergent a-c and b-d lines, reminiscent of the ET as the closest eligible pattern.
Now, using the height of the 3-wave that defined point-a of this ET, a standard 1.618-Fib extension comes in perfect alignment with the 1.131-Fib extension derived from the entire height of this correction, calling our attention to the 1.67152 level - This is the level that we will continue to follow in the following daily and weekly charts.
2 -EURAUD - Daily Chart:
In this daily chart, I am adding another Fibonacci cluster, using the 4-hour cluster at 1.67152, and bringing this up against yet another Fibonacci alignment generated from a much larger corrective pattern (apparently a zig-zag with 5-3-5 internals), whose height serves to define a significant 1.414 extension, as it too falls perfectly in line with 1.67152.
The relevance of these clusters cannot be over-emphasized, especially when we look at background geometries that would provide the mechanism behind the expected price action.
Hence, so far, we have contemplated a 4-Hour Expanding Triangle, allowing a transient decline to point-e as a springboard for further ascent to a daily price field in which three significant Fibonacci clusters are expected.
Now, looking at the following weekly chart, I will add my own geometry through a Geo that appears to have completed its 5-plot cycle, but may allow for a slight price excursion ("slight" on a weekly scale).
(... cont'd - See discussion thread for the remainder of the analysis ... )
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
-----
Twitter: 4xForecaster
LinkedIn: David Alcindor
TradingView: tradingview.com/u/4xForecaster/
-----
.
Following are a series of chart representing a top-down analysis of the
EURAUD pair. On a fundamental basis, I have shown in other charts a probable deterioration of the EUR, against a likely appreciation in commodity-wide class, including #gold, platinum and palladium - This should impact on positively correlated currencies, such as AUD, CAD, CHF and NZD to some extent (see these charts and analyses under my TradingView alias: 4xForecaster).First, let's take a look at the 4-hour, daily and weekly chart, paying particular attention to Fibonacci clusters:
1 -
EURAUD - 4-Hour Chart:In this chart, we are likely witnessing a corrective development in terms of Elliott Wave, with the nascence of an Expanding Triangle ("ET" with internals of 3-3-3-3-3). At first sight, one might believe that recent price action carved a high from which price would decline further to complete point-e of the ET.
However, use of the proprietary Predictive/Forecasting Model suggests that price will likely mount a final intermediate offensive to the level define as circa: 1.62468. A downward 1.618-Fibonacci extension was used to approximate the possible residence of point-e.
Although this may appear too speculative, I am simply using Elliott Wave internal A-B-C structures which have developed over the course of this correction, such that a connection of the tops is delineating divergent a-c and b-d lines, reminiscent of the ET as the closest eligible pattern.
Now, using the height of the 3-wave that defined point-a of this ET, a standard 1.618-Fib extension comes in perfect alignment with the 1.131-Fib extension derived from the entire height of this correction, calling our attention to the 1.67152 level - This is the level that we will continue to follow in the following daily and weekly charts.
2 -
EURAUD - Daily Chart:In this daily chart, I am adding another Fibonacci cluster, using the 4-hour cluster at 1.67152, and bringing this up against yet another Fibonacci alignment generated from a much larger corrective pattern (apparently a zig-zag with 5-3-5 internals), whose height serves to define a significant 1.414 extension, as it too falls perfectly in line with 1.67152.
The relevance of these clusters cannot be over-emphasized, especially when we look at background geometries that would provide the mechanism behind the expected price action.
Hence, so far, we have contemplated a 4-Hour Expanding Triangle, allowing a transient decline to point-e as a springboard for further ascent to a daily price field in which three significant Fibonacci clusters are expected.
Now, looking at the following weekly chart, I will add my own geometry through a Geo that appears to have completed its 5-plot cycle, but may allow for a slight price excursion ("slight" on a weekly scale).
(... cont'd - See discussion thread for the remainder of the analysis ... )
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
-----
Twitter: 4xForecaster
LinkedIn: David Alcindor
TradingView: tradingview.com/u/4xForecaster/
-----
.
Note
26 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:Following is a re-posting from
EUR room and ATHENA room:=======================
- Here is a possible Wolfe Wave / Geo development:
Looking at both the ATHENA method and the WW/Geo development, the following mechanism of ascent is preparing:
1 - Price rests upon the parallel of the A-C Line (in other examples, I refer to this as the 1-3 Line, but this is one and the same methodology), as a typical preparation for departure in the direction of the side that lends it support and slope (Here, we are talking about the A-C Line;
2 - The Wolfe Wave / Geo completed its 5-point cycle; This too is a typical preparation for a counter-trending ascent to the 1-4 Line (dotted in blue);
3 - Price is completing its 5th wave of a bearish motive wave. This too signals the completion of a cycle (Elliott Wave impulse wave cycle completion), and thus prepares price for a counter-trend, which in Elliott Wave parlance would be a corrective course.
OVERALL: These are three independent conditions heralding a probable reversal.
Bears, beware!
David Alcindor
=======================
Best,
David Alcindor
Note
27 OCT 2015 - Chart update / Tech-Note:Price bounced off of support as forecast; Remains intent on contra-lateral target:
David Alcindor
Note
03 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:Price reached support at 1.52336 - Expecting it to recommence upswing:
David Alcindor
Note
12 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:In recent analyses, we contend with two geometries: One being the Geo, and the other being a nascent expanding triangle to which we expected to apply the ATHENA methodology.
In the chart above, I decided to simply the price field by committing to the Geo, being a much more familiar geometry than the other whose B-D line had not yet been defined.
Note the internal development of a reciprocal ab = cd symmetry pointing to a probable Point-5, and thus complete the Geo and thus defining a high-probability level of reversal.
A prop pattern was used to define the upper and lower targets, expecting a validation to occur in this order.
David Alcindor
Note
12 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:Look out for:
1 - Unrealized reciprocal ab = cd symmetry
AND
2 - Unanswered prop pattern target at 148701.
Although this target is not generated from the Predictive/Forecasting Model, it carries a respectable probability of realization.
Instead, consider the then-support (pink arrows) to now act as resistance, eventually satisfying these geometric demands.
David Alcindor
Note
13 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:As expected, price was repelled by the predefined level ... Bearish forecast remains in force:
David Alcindor
Note
17 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:Price continues to move to bearish target 1.48701, defined this past November, 12th - Keeping a close watch on this one:
David Alcindor
Note
17 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:Price completes the reciprocal ab = cd symmetry, whereas bearish TG = 1.48701 target, defined on November 12th 2015, remains pending and probable:
David Alcindor
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.