EUR/AUD has been one of the standout crosses to watch this year, with the pair carving out a strong uptrend. After a steady pullback, prices are now sitting at trend support—and the market is asking whether this is simply a pause in the move, or the start of a deeper shift. To answer that, we’ve taken a closer look at both the cross and its component parts.
EUR/AUD Pulls Back to Trend Support
EUR/AUD has often been used as a proxy for shifting macro narratives. The Australian dollar reflects demand for commodities and tends to track Chinese growth prospects. The euro, meanwhile, has often benefited from moments of uncertainty around the US dollar. So when Trump reignited trade tensions in April, EUR/AUD moved higher as traders sold off AUD in response to the global growth wobble.
Since then, we’ve seen a steady retracement. The cross has pulled back into the previous area of resistance—a zone that bulls would now hope to see act as support. This pullback also coincides with the rising 50-day moving average, adding technical weight to the area.
Yesterday’s session saw the market react positively to this support zone, forming a bullish reversal candle. From a trend perspective, this could be the first signal that buyers are willing to step back in. If the market can now push through the descending retracement line that’s been capping price, the case for trend continuation strengthens.
EUR/AUD Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Breaking Down the Cross
When trading a cross, it’s always useful to look at its components. EUR/AUD is heavily influenced by how EUR/USD and AUD/USD are behaving, and we’re starting to see some interesting developments on both fronts.
EUR/USD: Coiling with Purpose
EUR/USD has entered a tight consolidation phase following its earlier rise. Price is compressing into the rising trendline, and while there’s no breakout yet, the structure suggests it’s only a matter of time. Momentum has slowed, but the broader pattern still leans bullish, which would provide a tailwind to EUR-crosses if it continues.
EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
AUD/USD: Recovery Losing Steam
AUD/USD bounced back sharply in April after Trump's tariff comments initially triggered a heavy sell-off. However, the recovery is now stalling just as the pair encounters longer-term resistance. Yesterday’s bearish engulfing candle suggests that the rebound may be running out of momentum. If AUD continues to weaken, this would reinforce EUR/AUD’s bullish setup.
AUD/USD Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Summary:
EUR/AUD is sitting at a key technical juncture. The pullback so far looks constructive, and early signals point to buying interest returning. As ever, much depends on the behaviour of the component pairs—particularly if EUR/USD can break higher while AUD/USD falters. That combination would provide a strong catalyst for EUR/AUD to continue its upward trend.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
EUR/AUD Pulls Back to Trend Support
EUR/AUD has often been used as a proxy for shifting macro narratives. The Australian dollar reflects demand for commodities and tends to track Chinese growth prospects. The euro, meanwhile, has often benefited from moments of uncertainty around the US dollar. So when Trump reignited trade tensions in April, EUR/AUD moved higher as traders sold off AUD in response to the global growth wobble.
Since then, we’ve seen a steady retracement. The cross has pulled back into the previous area of resistance—a zone that bulls would now hope to see act as support. This pullback also coincides with the rising 50-day moving average, adding technical weight to the area.
Yesterday’s session saw the market react positively to this support zone, forming a bullish reversal candle. From a trend perspective, this could be the first signal that buyers are willing to step back in. If the market can now push through the descending retracement line that’s been capping price, the case for trend continuation strengthens.
EUR/AUD Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Breaking Down the Cross
When trading a cross, it’s always useful to look at its components. EUR/AUD is heavily influenced by how EUR/USD and AUD/USD are behaving, and we’re starting to see some interesting developments on both fronts.
EUR/USD: Coiling with Purpose
EUR/USD has entered a tight consolidation phase following its earlier rise. Price is compressing into the rising trendline, and while there’s no breakout yet, the structure suggests it’s only a matter of time. Momentum has slowed, but the broader pattern still leans bullish, which would provide a tailwind to EUR-crosses if it continues.
EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
AUD/USD: Recovery Losing Steam
AUD/USD bounced back sharply in April after Trump's tariff comments initially triggered a heavy sell-off. However, the recovery is now stalling just as the pair encounters longer-term resistance. Yesterday’s bearish engulfing candle suggests that the rebound may be running out of momentum. If AUD continues to weaken, this would reinforce EUR/AUD’s bullish setup.
AUD/USD Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Summary:
EUR/AUD is sitting at a key technical juncture. The pullback so far looks constructive, and early signals point to buying interest returning. As ever, much depends on the behaviour of the component pairs—particularly if EUR/USD can break higher while AUD/USD falters. That combination would provide a strong catalyst for EUR/AUD to continue its upward trend.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.