EURAUD: Bearish Theory
Two global economic crises so close together in world history, what are the odds?
In 2008, the USA stock market bottomed out and began it's recovery just as the EURAUD pair hit a top and sold off.
This correlation to the SPX, from a global market view, is interesting because there is such a great shift from negative 80 to positive 80 in a 4 year span after the 2008 recovery.
It will be interesting to learn how this trend plays out in the coming years. The correlation coefficient has been dropping as the prices are starting to diverge negatively again. If it's anything like last time, we could be starting a long-term bearish trend in the pair.
Or, the positive correlation holds strong and leads the pair up during the recovery.
Or, the least likely scenario, the correlation holds but the pair drops like last time and the SPX goes down with it.
Check back in three years.
In 2008, the USA stock market bottomed out and began it's recovery just as the EURAUD pair hit a top and sold off.
This correlation to the SPX, from a global market view, is interesting because there is such a great shift from negative 80 to positive 80 in a 4 year span after the 2008 recovery.
It will be interesting to learn how this trend plays out in the coming years. The correlation coefficient has been dropping as the prices are starting to diverge negatively again. If it's anything like last time, we could be starting a long-term bearish trend in the pair.
Or, the positive correlation holds strong and leads the pair up during the recovery.
Or, the least likely scenario, the correlation holds but the pair drops like last time and the SPX goes down with it.
Check back in three years.
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