EURAUD Lower
Trying EURAUD lower here.
A couple red flags are popping up for me for this new high in EURAUD. Looking at the RSI on the daily chart we've made a bearish divergence while also being at a double top area on the daily chart as well.
narrative wise i think it somewhat makes sense with a hawkish ECB and some nervousness in the markets. I think a hawkish RBA is underpriced though and a hawkish ECB is somewhat overpriced as we're still not sure if the EU banking is stressed or not. The Hang Seng index is also performing relatively well, i think the china reopening narrative could come back at some point and could mean AUD strength.
Looking at correlations i don't really see anything that confirms this new high, copper is doing okay, gold is performing well, rate differentials have not made new highs and overall stocks aren't doing too bad and have not made new lows yet.
Sentiment and positioning for the pair and extremely high which i think limits the upside somewhat.
We've also entered a bullish seasonal period for AUDUSD and stocks which should help with EURAUD downside. I think lots of seasonals play into lower EURAUD including lower VIX seasonals as well.
Overall with the US banking worries and seasonals i think we slowly grind higher in stocks and lower in EURAUD.
Not trading/investment advise, feedback welcome!
A couple red flags are popping up for me for this new high in EURAUD. Looking at the RSI on the daily chart we've made a bearish divergence while also being at a double top area on the daily chart as well.
narrative wise i think it somewhat makes sense with a hawkish ECB and some nervousness in the markets. I think a hawkish RBA is underpriced though and a hawkish ECB is somewhat overpriced as we're still not sure if the EU banking is stressed or not. The Hang Seng index is also performing relatively well, i think the china reopening narrative could come back at some point and could mean AUD strength.
Looking at correlations i don't really see anything that confirms this new high, copper is doing okay, gold is performing well, rate differentials have not made new highs and overall stocks aren't doing too bad and have not made new lows yet.
Sentiment and positioning for the pair and extremely high which i think limits the upside somewhat.
We've also entered a bullish seasonal period for AUDUSD and stocks which should help with EURAUD downside. I think lots of seasonals play into lower EURAUD including lower VIX seasonals as well.
Overall with the US banking worries and seasonals i think we slowly grind higher in stocks and lower in EURAUD.
Not trading/investment advise, feedback welcome!
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