RBA Cut Not Sure Bet
Updated
As per Bloomberg's survey of 25 economists - 20 believe that Glenn Stevens will lower the interest rate today due to low inflation. Text book fundamentals at play.
However, I believe the question should not be whether the RBA will cut rates, but rather will it actually help the Australian economy and lift inflation. There are strong signs that low inflation is the new norm and central bank's primary tool of interest rates to boost inflation looks to be having diminishing effect. Can't say there is much support of businesses holding off investment decisions until rates are slashed to 1.5%; as per the minutes of the last RBA meeting, there is not a lot prolonged low rates have anything to do with return in investment hurdles ( rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/2016/2016-07-05.html ).
Right now, contrary to the text books, consumer sentiment seems to be a dampener on monetary stimulus. Just because there's cheaper credit doesn't mean people HAVE to spend - they have to pay it back one day and is it worth increasing debt burden? The mentality is no longer borrow more and spend but rather pay off existing debt sooner, so mortgage holders are preferring to use the chance to pay off their loans more quickly and at record low rates.
PA on AUD has been bias for a rate cut for some time now and risks is to the up side if Stevens chooses to keep rates on hold. The devil will be in the details of the minutes and how the market interprets it. However, the Australian economy isn't looking in bad shape if you remove mining, minerals and commodities from the picture. Non-resource businesses and services are trucking along supported by job prospects. Does Australia need more cheap money or divesting away from dependence on resource led growth? You be the judge of that.
Current EURAUD at a very strong resistance area with fib confluence and dynamic resistance @ ~ 1.483xx. There is some structural support but not significant enough as there has not been many retests. AUDUSD has better structural support and expecting PA for both to remain much the same with before the RBA announcement.
This is a news trade so targets are indicative only - likely to manually close trade if this goes in my favor as not likely to see a retest of recent lows.
However, I believe the question should not be whether the RBA will cut rates, but rather will it actually help the Australian economy and lift inflation. There are strong signs that low inflation is the new norm and central bank's primary tool of interest rates to boost inflation looks to be having diminishing effect. Can't say there is much support of businesses holding off investment decisions until rates are slashed to 1.5%; as per the minutes of the last RBA meeting, there is not a lot prolonged low rates have anything to do with return in investment hurdles ( rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/2016/2016-07-05.html ).
Right now, contrary to the text books, consumer sentiment seems to be a dampener on monetary stimulus. Just because there's cheaper credit doesn't mean people HAVE to spend - they have to pay it back one day and is it worth increasing debt burden? The mentality is no longer borrow more and spend but rather pay off existing debt sooner, so mortgage holders are preferring to use the chance to pay off their loans more quickly and at record low rates.
PA on AUD has been bias for a rate cut for some time now and risks is to the up side if Stevens chooses to keep rates on hold. The devil will be in the details of the minutes and how the market interprets it. However, the Australian economy isn't looking in bad shape if you remove mining, minerals and commodities from the picture. Non-resource businesses and services are trucking along supported by job prospects. Does Australia need more cheap money or divesting away from dependence on resource led growth? You be the judge of that.
Current EURAUD at a very strong resistance area with fib confluence and dynamic resistance @ ~ 1.483xx. There is some structural support but not significant enough as there has not been many retests. AUDUSD has better structural support and expecting PA for both to remain much the same with before the RBA announcement.
This is a news trade so targets are indicative only - likely to manually close trade if this goes in my favor as not likely to see a retest of recent lows.
Trade active
Trade closed manually
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