Learning how USD corrolates with non-USD currencies. EURCAD
Updated
My CURRENT definition of RISK.
RISK ON
USD down, moving XXX/USD currencies up and USD/XXX currencies down.
or
RISK OFF
USD up, moving XXX/USD currencies down and USD/XXX currencies up.
Mid term (3 wks-6mo) I lean bias towards 2018 trading in RISK ON mode. Which means
EURUSD is a buy mid-term.
USDCAD is a sell mid-term.
In the last several months we have been in RISK ON mode with EURUSD in a obvious uptrend. I've noticed EURCAD trends UP when we are risk on.
So mid-term we cannot expect to short EURCAD because we know the underlying currencies are in up trends. Short term I do believe there is room for a pullback to the 1.53 or 1.52 levels coupled with a pullback in EURUSD. But ultimately I will be looking to trade EURCAD higher in months to come.
Full Disclaimer: This is a test I'm running to better understand how correlations among two USD pegged pairs perform when pegged against each other. I will be referencing both EURUSD and USDCAD often. EURUSD is perfectly 1-1 inversely correlated with USD. This is because the EURUSD is the strongest correlated currency to the USD in the world and ultimately controls EURCAD by nature. Trade between the United States and the European Union is over half of USD transactions so EURO's are the most strongly correlated out of all other currencies. That being said when I'm looking at the price of EURUSD, I'm actually reflecting on the price of USD if that makes any sense. EURUSD is up when USD is down BECAUSE USD is down! I track USD with the US Dollar index. Ticker DXY.
If you found this useful or thoughtful Likes/Comments/Follows are much appreciated!
Disclaimer: Oanda data shown. Material is educational only. Trade at your own risk!
and ultimately controls EURCAD by nature
RISK ON
USD down, moving XXX/USD currencies up and USD/XXX currencies down.
or
RISK OFF
USD up, moving XXX/USD currencies down and USD/XXX currencies up.
Mid term (3 wks-6mo) I lean bias towards 2018 trading in RISK ON mode. Which means
EURUSD is a buy mid-term.
USDCAD is a sell mid-term.
In the last several months we have been in RISK ON mode with EURUSD in a obvious uptrend. I've noticed EURCAD trends UP when we are risk on.
So mid-term we cannot expect to short EURCAD because we know the underlying currencies are in up trends. Short term I do believe there is room for a pullback to the 1.53 or 1.52 levels coupled with a pullback in EURUSD. But ultimately I will be looking to trade EURCAD higher in months to come.
Full Disclaimer: This is a test I'm running to better understand how correlations among two USD pegged pairs perform when pegged against each other. I will be referencing both EURUSD and USDCAD often. EURUSD is perfectly 1-1 inversely correlated with USD. This is because the EURUSD is the strongest correlated currency to the USD in the world and ultimately controls EURCAD by nature. Trade between the United States and the European Union is over half of USD transactions so EURO's are the most strongly correlated out of all other currencies. That being said when I'm looking at the price of EURUSD, I'm actually reflecting on the price of USD if that makes any sense. EURUSD is up when USD is down BECAUSE USD is down! I track USD with the US Dollar index. Ticker DXY.
If you found this useful or thoughtful Likes/Comments/Follows are much appreciated!
Disclaimer: Oanda data shown. Material is educational only. Trade at your own risk!
and ultimately controls EURCAD by nature
Note
Keeping in mind this article was posted on Sunday, I will be marking 24 hours on a 1 hour chart using the blue vertical line.On Monday EURUSD fell to the low to clear out some stops before setting up a decent buy signal by clustering in the buy zone. That trade would have been a decent 1x1 through out the afternoon and was a good sign of the bull still in charge.
However on Tuesday, price wicked down to the lows to clear out traders before making the real move higher. What an awesome place that would have been to enter
Note
USDCAD has done the opposite but appears to have given a better opportunity, Risk ON means MidTerm XXX/USD trades higher. USD/XXX trade lower.
Note
Sorry posted wrong link. Note
Note
EURCAD appears to have gotten the best of both worlds these last few days. We got EUR's large exaggerated move but also got Cads predictability. Entering at the stop out point of the first obvious with trend signal would have been the trade to have taken in the past two days. Will update on Thursday.
Note
Now it seems the tide has turned a bit and USDCAD seems to be either taking control, or getting irrational. Price has made higher high which suggests a risk off scenario in the short term. Note
Note
Note
EURCAD seems to be very quickly overtaken by CAD control. Strange b/c at the beginning of the week it felt like EUR was in control when EUR surged higher. It almost seems like whatever currency is most volatile is the one that maintains general direction against consolidating peers.
For example, when EURUSD pushed lower Monday morning (first blue block) EURCAD ran lower with it. But it appears in the middle of the week tide changed and USDCAD gained control. Then Fridays move in EURCAD is directly related to USDCAD. While EURUSD was unchanged.
I guess this actually reflects a strengthening CAD among all peers. Lets see how this strength compares to others.
Note
Also higher highs in swing perspective on GBP but highs have not been made, representing GBP holding more weight as far as CAD is concerned vs. the alternative EUR. 
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