EURCAD Lower
Updated
Trying EURCAD lower here.
We're currently in a triangle which i think could break to the downside.
I don't think the narrative supports EURCAD higher. The CAD narrative is continuing to perform well on a relatively hawkish BoC, strong inflation data in Canada and good economic activity. Looking at the EUR we have weak economic data, an ECB that is turning dovish and falling inflation.
Looking at the rate differentials, the pair looks out of line with them and is suggesting that we should be lower. Oil is also doing well which should help CAD.
Seasonals are bearish for EURUSD until about early september which should help EURCAD lower by proxy.
There's a lot of long positioning in EUR which could help any downside move.
I'll reconsider the trade is EU economic data comes in strong this week or if the pair breaks up through the triangle.
Not trading/investment advise, feedback welcome!
We're currently in a triangle which i think could break to the downside.
I don't think the narrative supports EURCAD higher. The CAD narrative is continuing to perform well on a relatively hawkish BoC, strong inflation data in Canada and good economic activity. Looking at the EUR we have weak economic data, an ECB that is turning dovish and falling inflation.
Looking at the rate differentials, the pair looks out of line with them and is suggesting that we should be lower. Oil is also doing well which should help CAD.
Seasonals are bearish for EURUSD until about early september which should help EURCAD lower by proxy.
There's a lot of long positioning in EUR which could help any downside move.
I'll reconsider the trade is EU economic data comes in strong this week or if the pair breaks up through the triangle.
Not trading/investment advise, feedback welcome!
Note
moving stop loss to breakeven before US PMI PREL dataNote
out at breakeven, i think if USD weakens which i expect then EURCAD could move to the upside
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