📌 EUR/CAD TRADE ANALYSIS & EXECUTION PLAN 🎯
🔥 Primary Sell Trade – High-Conviction Institutional Setup
🔹 Entry Zone 1: Sell Limit at 1.5500 (Liquidity Grab + Supply Zone).
🔹 Entry Zone 2: Sell Limit at 1.5550 (Final liquidity sweep before rejection).
🔹 Confirmation Entry (H1/H4):
✅ H4 Bearish Engulfing Bar (Major sign of institutional selling).
✅ M30/H1 Bearish Divergence (Momentum weakening at highs).
✅ Volume Spike at Highs (Liquidity grab & Smart Money distribution).
📍 Stop Loss & Take Profits:
✅ Ultra-Safe SL: Above 1.5600 (Liquidity grab invalidation).
✅ Safe SL: Above 1.5570 (Structure invalidation).
✅ TP1: 1.5350 (First reaction zone – move SL to breakeven).
✅ TP2: 1.5250 (Institutional demand zone).
✅ TP3: 1.5150 (Full move completion).
🎯 Confidence Level: ✅✅✅✅ (80-90%) – High Probability Trade
📍 Why This Sell Setup?
🔹 H4 Bearish Engulfing Bar: Strong rejection with institutional sell momentum at highs.
🔹 Bearish Divergence (M30/H1): Momentum exhaustion as price made higher highs while RSI/MACD failed to confirm.
🔹 Liquidity Grab Above 1.5450: Stop hunts triggered before a selloff, confirming Smart Money involvement.
🔹 Key Resistance Zone (1.5500-1.5550): Historical supply area where previous reversals occurred.
🔹 Overextended Rally: Price surged from 1.4900 to 1.5500 with no proper retracement – high probability for correction.
🚨 Trade Invalidation Criteria:
❌ Close above 1.5600 (Ultra-Safe SL hit).
❌ H4 bullish structure shift (Break & close above 1.5620+).
❌ Fundamental shift favoring EUR strength (Major news event).
📢 H4 engulfing bar + M30/H1 divergence confirm Smart Money selling! Watch for reaction at 1.5500-1.5550! 🚀
🔥 Primary Sell Trade – High-Conviction Institutional Setup
🔹 Entry Zone 1: Sell Limit at 1.5500 (Liquidity Grab + Supply Zone).
🔹 Entry Zone 2: Sell Limit at 1.5550 (Final liquidity sweep before rejection).
🔹 Confirmation Entry (H1/H4):
✅ H4 Bearish Engulfing Bar (Major sign of institutional selling).
✅ M30/H1 Bearish Divergence (Momentum weakening at highs).
✅ Volume Spike at Highs (Liquidity grab & Smart Money distribution).
📍 Stop Loss & Take Profits:
✅ Ultra-Safe SL: Above 1.5600 (Liquidity grab invalidation).
✅ Safe SL: Above 1.5570 (Structure invalidation).
✅ TP1: 1.5350 (First reaction zone – move SL to breakeven).
✅ TP2: 1.5250 (Institutional demand zone).
✅ TP3: 1.5150 (Full move completion).
🎯 Confidence Level: ✅✅✅✅ (80-90%) – High Probability Trade
📍 Why This Sell Setup?
🔹 H4 Bearish Engulfing Bar: Strong rejection with institutional sell momentum at highs.
🔹 Bearish Divergence (M30/H1): Momentum exhaustion as price made higher highs while RSI/MACD failed to confirm.
🔹 Liquidity Grab Above 1.5450: Stop hunts triggered before a selloff, confirming Smart Money involvement.
🔹 Key Resistance Zone (1.5500-1.5550): Historical supply area where previous reversals occurred.
🔹 Overextended Rally: Price surged from 1.4900 to 1.5500 with no proper retracement – high probability for correction.
🚨 Trade Invalidation Criteria:
❌ Close above 1.5600 (Ultra-Safe SL hit).
❌ H4 bullish structure shift (Break & close above 1.5620+).
❌ Fundamental shift favoring EUR strength (Major news event).
📢 H4 engulfing bar + M30/H1 divergence confirm Smart Money selling! Watch for reaction at 1.5500-1.5550! 🚀
Note
ECB Rate Cut Affect Our EUR/CAD Sell Trade Plan?The ECB’s rate cut of 25bps to 2.5% would normally be bearish for the euro. However, the EUR actually strengthened after the decision. This means we need to analyze how this impacts our sell setup on EUR/CAD and whether it remains valid.
Impact on the EUR/CAD Sell Setup
1️⃣ Euro Strength Unexpectedly Increased 📈
Despite the rate cut, the euro rallied against the dollar and other currencies (including CAD).
This means the price could push higher than expected before reversing.
2️⃣ Potential Deeper Liquidity Grab Before Selling
Since EUR gained strength post-rate cut, liquidity above 1.5550 may get grabbed before a selloff.
We need to watch for a stop hunt above 1.5550–1.5600 before confirming the sell setup.
3️⃣ CAD News Could Shift the Market
Canada’s employment data (March 7, 2025) could bring CAD strength, potentially reinforcing our sell setup.
If CAD strengthens, EUR/CAD could drop sharply from resistance.
Trade Plan Adjustment After ECB Decision
✔️ Sell Zone: 1.5500–1.5600 (Extended to account for bullish push)
✔️ Wait for Strong Bearish Confirmation on H1/H4
Rejection wicks, Bearish Engulfing, or Fakeout above 1.5550
✔️ Fundamental Trigger:
If CAD employment data is strong, expect EUR/CAD to drop faster.
✔️ Stop-Loss Adjustment:
Ultra-Safe SL: Above 1.5620 (previous high & invalidation level).
✔️ Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 1.5400
TP2: 1.5300
TP3: 1.5200 (if momentum continues).
Conclusion
The sell setup is still valid but needs confirmation due to euro strength.
A liquidity grab above 1.5550–1.5600 is possible before reversal.
CAD news will be key—strong CAD data will likely drive EUR/CAD lower.
Stay patient & wait for confirmation before entering.
Order cancelled
INVALIDATED! Entry not triggered!, euro continuing to show strength. That is why entry confirmation is Important.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.