EUR/CAD Short Setup – Stop Run and Weekly Reversal in Play
We started the week with a burst of bullish activity on EUR/CAD — but it’s looking more like a liquidity grab than genuine strength.
Sunday Open: Within 12 hours of the weekly open (during thin liquidity), price broke last week’s high — a level that held all of last week — hinting at a possible engineered stop run.
Backdrop: The ECB’s 25bps rate cut last Thursday (April 17) continues to pressure the euro fundamentally. This morning's move likely reflects faux volume aimed at clearing out late sellers before a reversal.
Session Structure:
Asia: Extended the highs slightly.
London: Delivered a sharp drive up, breaking the weekly high mid-session — likely the final liquidity tap before reversing.
Now: London has closed. We’re heading into New York with momentum slowing and key reversal patterns forming.
Technical Confluence:
15-Min Chart: Clear double top.
1H Chart: Inside bar fakeout forming — breakout failed, candle about to close bearish.
These formations align with a classic market maker reversal model following a stop raid.
Bias: Bearish.
Targeting a move down to 1.53319 — a clean demand zone and structural target.
Stops above 1.6000 would be ideal for institutions to aim at, but I don’t believe we’ll reach that high. The signs of exhaustion are already visible.
Macro View: With euro weakness post-ECB and potential dollar strength building this week (especially with Trump pressuring global trade again), this may be the start of a decisive trend move to the downside.
Let’s see how New York handles this. If momentum confirms, we may be at the very beginning of a significant shift.
We started the week with a burst of bullish activity on EUR/CAD — but it’s looking more like a liquidity grab than genuine strength.
Sunday Open: Within 12 hours of the weekly open (during thin liquidity), price broke last week’s high — a level that held all of last week — hinting at a possible engineered stop run.
Backdrop: The ECB’s 25bps rate cut last Thursday (April 17) continues to pressure the euro fundamentally. This morning's move likely reflects faux volume aimed at clearing out late sellers before a reversal.
Session Structure:
Asia: Extended the highs slightly.
London: Delivered a sharp drive up, breaking the weekly high mid-session — likely the final liquidity tap before reversing.
Now: London has closed. We’re heading into New York with momentum slowing and key reversal patterns forming.
Technical Confluence:
15-Min Chart: Clear double top.
1H Chart: Inside bar fakeout forming — breakout failed, candle about to close bearish.
These formations align with a classic market maker reversal model following a stop raid.
Bias: Bearish.
Targeting a move down to 1.53319 — a clean demand zone and structural target.
Stops above 1.6000 would be ideal for institutions to aim at, but I don’t believe we’ll reach that high. The signs of exhaustion are already visible.
Macro View: With euro weakness post-ECB and potential dollar strength building this week (especially with Trump pressuring global trade again), this may be the start of a decisive trend move to the downside.
Let’s see how New York handles this. If momentum confirms, we may be at the very beginning of a significant shift.
Trade closed manually
Dont like the 1hour price action - 2nd bounce on weekly level (thick black) formng dojiOut Satisfied
Note
Target reached but only banked around 1R
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.