EURCHF - EUR Losing It's Strength?
Updated
Analysis:
As we can see from price action we're in a longer term downwards trend, as shown by the downwards trendline and in recent times we've also been trending to the downside so only shorts look good to us as we want to be going with the trend rather then fighting against it. At this area we've got a major level which has held as both support and resistance in the past and we expect that it will hold again now. To add more confluence to this setup at our area we also have both the 50% fib retracement level and the 61.8% fib retracement level which both could act as levels of resistance as we expect that sellers will be sat at both of these levels. We're also in what's often called the "golden zone" which is the area between the 50% and 61.8% so this is looking like a nice place to enter from. Another confluence we have to enter at this level is the longer term downwards trendline which is clearly visible. Its been respected multiple times in the past and every time this trendline has been touched we've seen a big drop in price so we expect that this will happen again if we get a touch of the trendline, so this goes in our favour. Now fundamentally the EUR is the strongest major currency compared to the CHF which is the 5th strongest major currency. Whilst this doesn't go in our favour this isn't the full picture. As of the most recent report we saw an increase of about the same for long and short positions on the CHF. This isn't a positive but this also isn't a negative, it's just neutral whereas for the EUR we saw a big decrease in long positions and an increase in short positions so this isn't looking good for the EUR and this could be early signs that the EUR is starting to lose some of its strength. This is why currently when comparing the EUR to the CHF fundamentally we actually prefer being bullish on the CHF, giving us our bearish bias for this pair.
Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all.
Stay Safe - JPI
Disclaimer:
This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does to. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
As we can see from price action we're in a longer term downwards trend, as shown by the downwards trendline and in recent times we've also been trending to the downside so only shorts look good to us as we want to be going with the trend rather then fighting against it. At this area we've got a major level which has held as both support and resistance in the past and we expect that it will hold again now. To add more confluence to this setup at our area we also have both the 50% fib retracement level and the 61.8% fib retracement level which both could act as levels of resistance as we expect that sellers will be sat at both of these levels. We're also in what's often called the "golden zone" which is the area between the 50% and 61.8% so this is looking like a nice place to enter from. Another confluence we have to enter at this level is the longer term downwards trendline which is clearly visible. Its been respected multiple times in the past and every time this trendline has been touched we've seen a big drop in price so we expect that this will happen again if we get a touch of the trendline, so this goes in our favour. Now fundamentally the EUR is the strongest major currency compared to the CHF which is the 5th strongest major currency. Whilst this doesn't go in our favour this isn't the full picture. As of the most recent report we saw an increase of about the same for long and short positions on the CHF. This isn't a positive but this also isn't a negative, it's just neutral whereas for the EUR we saw a big decrease in long positions and an increase in short positions so this isn't looking good for the EUR and this could be early signs that the EUR is starting to lose some of its strength. This is why currently when comparing the EUR to the CHF fundamentally we actually prefer being bullish on the CHF, giving us our bearish bias for this pair.
Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all.
Stay Safe - JPI
Disclaimer:
This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does to. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Trade active
Our entry criteria has been met and our order was filled so we're currently short EURCHF expecting that price will continue in this downwards trend that we're in.Note
This is another trade that has benefited off of the recent EUR weakness. We've seen price reach our area and show strong signs of bearish pressure which is good for us. We also got a daily candle close that is bearish and a bearish confluence factor so currently all signs for this trade are looking good!Note
Although price action was looking good yesterday we've since seen some slight EUR bullishness which has pulled price back to our entry area. This may seem negative for a lot of people but this trade is still valid for us. Firstly you'll rarely ever see price go straight to your take profit so this type of price action is normal. Secondly we're approaching the downwards trendline that we mentioned in our original post. We expect to see a lot of bearish pressure from this trendline so this pullback might actually help our trade and we could see a nice drop. Thirdly we have some news coming out later today for the EUR. This news event could be a catalyst that we need to see price continue to the downside so this is something we'll be watching out for later. Once we see the result of the news we will go from there and we'll be sure to keep you all updated!
Disclaimer
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