The french election - how will the markerts react?
The french election. Who will win? Macron or Le Pen?
What does Le pen want with France?
Le pen is very anti EU (Europian Union), she believe that France should leave the EU. But why this? She is the partys "Front National" presidential candidate. This polical party supports nationalism, which (in this situation) means that the focus should be on France only, with closed borders and no Europian Union. If Le Pen wins the election, then France's membership in the EU may be over. Since France is a huge economy in the EU, it would affect the Union a lot.
Macron is not anti EU. He thinks France should stay in the EU. He is the partys "En Marche!" presidantial candidate. You could call him social-liberal. All in all, Macron sees positive at the EU. Which is positive for the Euro, since the chance of france leaving the EU is very low, if he gets elected.
So how will the markets react to all this polical stuff?
Well it is always hard to predict with a 100% certainty how the markets will react. The Euro has already reacted positive, since most people say that Macron will win. Many experts also predict that Macron will win. So the inverstors has become postive about the EURO. However, this is the same "experts" that said Hillary Clinton would win the election in the US. But what happened? Donald Trump smashed her. These experts also said that the UK would vote no to Brexit. What happened? They voted yes.
So lets say that Le pen wins. Then all this positivity we have seen in the euro the past weeks will be gone. And all the bulls will be trapped. It would most likely make the euro COLLAPSE.
Summed up.
Macron victory= Most likely positive euor
Le pen victory= Most likely a collapse in the euro
What does Le pen want with France?
Le pen is very anti EU (Europian Union), she believe that France should leave the EU. But why this? She is the partys "Front National" presidential candidate. This polical party supports nationalism, which (in this situation) means that the focus should be on France only, with closed borders and no Europian Union. If Le Pen wins the election, then France's membership in the EU may be over. Since France is a huge economy in the EU, it would affect the Union a lot.
Macron is not anti EU. He thinks France should stay in the EU. He is the partys "En Marche!" presidantial candidate. You could call him social-liberal. All in all, Macron sees positive at the EU. Which is positive for the Euro, since the chance of france leaving the EU is very low, if he gets elected.
So how will the markets react to all this polical stuff?
Well it is always hard to predict with a 100% certainty how the markets will react. The Euro has already reacted positive, since most people say that Macron will win. Many experts also predict that Macron will win. So the inverstors has become postive about the EURO. However, this is the same "experts" that said Hillary Clinton would win the election in the US. But what happened? Donald Trump smashed her. These experts also said that the UK would vote no to Brexit. What happened? They voted yes.
So lets say that Le pen wins. Then all this positivity we have seen in the euro the past weeks will be gone. And all the bulls will be trapped. It would most likely make the euro COLLAPSE.
Summed up.
Macron victory= Most likely positive euor
Le pen victory= Most likely a collapse in the euro
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.